[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, July 19, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy News
July 19, 2006

In this issue:
1) United States to Israel: you have one more week to blast Hizbullah
2) Israel Violates Law on U.S. Weapons in Mideast
3) An Embodiment of Iran's Long Shadow: Missiles for Hezbollah
4) U.S. Appears to Be Waiting to Act on Israeli Airstrikes
5) With Israeli Use of Force, Debate Over Proportion
6) U.S. Seeks Mideast Truce That Will Last
7) Iran's Hizbollah Says Ready to Attack US, Israel
8) Turkey Signals It's Prepared to Enter Iraq
9) Evacuations Underway in Beirut
10) End the Slow-Motion Diplomacy
11) Bush Supports Israel's Move Against Hezbollah
12) Mexican Leftist Warns of Unrest, Fox Denies Fraud

Summary:
The US is giving Israel a window of a week to inflict maximum damage
on Hizbullah before weighing in behind international calls for a
ceasefire in Lebanon, according to British, European and Israeli
sources, the Guardian reports. The Bush administration, backed by
Britain, has blocked efforts for an immediate halt to the fighting.
"It's clear the Americans have given the Israelis the green light.
They will be allowed to go on longer, perhaps for another week," a
senior European official said. British PM Blair resisted demands in
parliament that he call for a ceasefire. He also indicated it might
take many months to agree the terms of a UN stabilisation force on the
Lebanese border. British officials privately acknowledged the US had
given Israel a green light to continue bombing Lebanon until it
believes Hizbullah's infrastructure has been destroyed. But Kim
Howells, a UK Foreign Office minister, explicitly called for the US to
rein in Israel. "I very much hope the Americans will be putting
pressure on the Israelis to stop as quickly as possible." he said.

Israel is in violation of U.S. arms control laws for deploying
U.S.-made fighter planes, combat helicopters and missiles to kill
civilians and destroy Lebanon's infrastructure, Inter Press Service
reports. "Section 4 of the (U.S.) Arms Export Control Act requires
that military items transferred to foreign governments by the United
States be used solely for internal security and legitimate
self-defense," says Stephen Zunes, a professor at the University of
San Francisco. "Since Israeli attacks against Lebanon's civilian
infrastructure and population centers clearly go beyond legitimate
self-defense, the United States is legally obliged to suspend arms
transfers to Israel," Zunes told IPS.

The New York Times reports that action on a resolution at the UN
Security Council critical of Iran for failing to suspend its uranium
enrichment activities is on hold. Iran's defense of Hizbollah has
convinced the US that Iran is fueling the crisis to project power.
"The American president says Hezbollah should be disarmed," Iran's
leader Khamenei said, "but it will not happen." Iran's former
president Khatami, who tried to moderate Iran's foreign policy,
likened Hezbollah to "a shining sun that illuminates and warms the
hearts of all Muslims and supporters of freedom." The most significant
recent change in Iranian support for Hezbollah is its transfer of
longer-range rockets that can be fired into major Israeli cities,
according to an analysis by Anthony Cordesman of the Center for
Strategic and International Studies. Despite its oratory, Iran is
positioning itself for a role in resolving the crisis. Iran's foreign
minister said a cease-fire and an exchange of prisoners would be a
possible way forward. Some analysts of Iran's backing for Hezbollah
are restrained in their conclusions of Iran's role. "Iran will
certainly benefit from Hezbollah strikes," Cordesman wrote. But "Until
there are hard facts, Iran's role in all this is a matter of
speculation, and conspiracy theories are not facts or news."

The outlines of an American-Israeli consensus began to emerge in which
Israel would continue to bombard Lebanon for another week or so to
degrade the capabilities of the Hezbollah militia, the New York Times
reports. Then, Secretary of State Rice would go to the region and seek
to establish a buffer zone in southern Lebanon, and perhaps an
international force to monitor Lebanon's borders and prevent Hezbollah
from obtaining more rockets for bombarding Israel. American officials
signaled that Rice was waiting at least a few more days, in part to
give Israel more time to weaken Hezbollah. The strategy carries risk,
partly because it remains unclear just how long the rest of the world,
particularly America's Arab allies, will remain silent as the toll on
Lebanese civilians rises.

Lebanese prime minister Siniora criticized the world for not stopping
the Israeli offensive. "The international community is not doing all
that it can in order to stop Israel continuing its aggression against
Lebanon," Siniora said. "They are stopping short of exercising the
necessary pressure on Israel, while Israel is taking this as a green
light."
He accused Israel of "committing massacres against Lebanese civilians
and working to destroy everything that allows Lebanon to stay alive."
Siniora said that he supported the release of the two Israeli
soldiers. But he also said any solution to the crisis should include
Israel's withdrawal from the disputed Shebaa Farms area of the border,
the release of Lebanese detainees in Israeli jails and a return to the
terms of the 1949 armistice between the two countries. He suggested
the Lebanese Army would move to southern Lebanon once these conditions
were met. He backed the idea of a more robust international force, but
only after "all the issues" were put on the table. Egypt's Foreign
Minister said, ''A cease-fire is imperative.We have to bring it to an
end as soon as possible.''

More civilians were killed in Israeli air strikes, at least 19,
according to the AP, while the BBC put the total at 40, and Reuters at
50. Reuters reported that 12 Lebanese civilians, including several
children, were killed and 30 people were wounded when Israeli jets
bombed several houses in Srifa. Israeli forces also made their biggest
incursion into the Gaza Strip in days, sending tanks into a refugee
camp, where fighting lead to the deaths of nine Palestinians,
officials said. Some 500,000 Lebanese have fled their homes to escape
the violence, the UN estimated. Israel said it is aiming only at
Hezbollah and not the Lebanese Army, although attacks on Monday and
Tuesday killed 19 Lebanese soldiers. While the Israelis say they have
chosen their targets, about 1,000 so far, with great care, their
attacks seem to be spread almost randomly across the country. Israeli
airstrikes hit targets in Beirut's main Christian enclave on
Wednesday, a short distance from where hundreds of U.S. citizens were
boarding a cruise ship chartered to evacuate them to the nearby island
of Cyprus.

Hezbollah rockets again hit Haifa, the port city in northern Israel,
and Nahariya, a coastal town just south of the border, where one man
died and several were wounded, one critically. Hundreds of thousands
of Israelis continued to spend their time in shelters, and Haifa was
largely shut down, with only grocery stores and pharmacies open. More
than 130 rockets were fired, Israeli officials said.

Some Americans in Beirut have been critical of the U.S. evacuation
effort in Lebanon, pointing out that many European countries moved
more quickly. A State Department spokesman said that Rice had decided
to reverse a policy that required Americans being evacuated to sign a
document promising to reimburse the government for the cost of their
transport.

Israeli air attacks on civilian infrastructure like power plants,
electricity transformers, airports, bridges, highways and government
buildings, have led to accusations by France and the EU that Israel is
guilty of "disproportionate use of force" in the Gaza Strip and
Lebanon and of "collective punishment" of the civilian populations,
the New York Times reports. Referring to complaints that Israel was
using disproportionate force, Israel's United Nations ambassador said,
"You're damn right we are…If your cities were shelled the way ours
were," he said, "you would use much more force than we are or we ever
will." Raji Sourani, a Gazan lawyer who directs the Palestinian Center
for Human Rights, said "What Israel is doing in Gaza now has nothing
to do with the captured soldier. I don't think bridges, power stations
or airports have anything to do with the soldier. I don't think
denying access for goods and people has anything to do with the
soldier, or denying medicine, or bombarding one of the world's most
densely populated areas by day and night."

Iran's Hizbollah, which claims links to the Lebanese group of the same
name, said on Tuesday it stood ready to attack Israeli and U.S.
interests worldwide."We have 2,000 volunteers who have registered
since last year,'' said Iranian Hizbollah's spokesman. "We are ready
to dispatch them to every corner of the world to jeopardise Israel and
America's interests. We are only waiting for the Supreme Leader's
green light to take action. If America wants to ignite World War Three
... we welcome it,'' he said. Iranian religious organisations have
made great public show of recruiting volunteers for "martyrdom-seeking
operations'' in recent years, usually threatening U.S. interests in
case of any attack against the Islamic Republic's nuclear programme.
But there is no record of an Iranian volunteer from these recruitment
campaigns taking part in an attack. Despite Iranian Hizbollah's
insistence that it takes orders from Supreme Leader Khamenei,
government ministries say Hizbollah does not implement official
policy. Iran's government has said it hopes for a diplomatic solution
to the Israeli offensive in Lebanon. While Iran did fund and support
Lebanese Hizbollah during the 1980s, Tehran says it has not
contributed troops or weapons in the latest violence.

Turkish officials signaled Tuesday they are prepared to send the army
into northern Iraq if U.S. and Iraqi forces do not take steps to
combat Turkish Kurdish guerrillas there. Turkey is facing increasing
domestic pressure to act after 15 soldiers, police and guards were
killed fighting the guerrillas in southeastern Turkey in the past
week. Diplomats cautioned the increasingly aggressive Turkish
statements were likely aimed at calming public anger and pressing the
U.S. and Iraq to act against the Turkish Kurdish guerrillas. But they
also said Turkish politicians and military officers could act if
nothing is done.
American officials have repeatedly warned Turkey against entering northern Iraq.

David Ignatius, writing in the Washington Post, calls for an end to
the "slow-motion diplomacy" of the United States. The Bush
administration's passivity is inexplicable. The world is waiting for
robust American diplomacy; instead we see a tongue-tied superpower.
Israeli officials talk of breaking the Shiite militia. That goal is
almost certain to fail. Israel tried something similar in 1982, only
to be pinned down by Hezbollah's resistance movement and forced to
retreat. Only a compulsive gambler would think the odds are better
now. Rather than bringing positive change, military action in the
Middle East tends to bring unanticipated consequences. If the Israeli
campaign against Hezbollah stretches to weeks and even months, how
long will it be before the United States faces a Shiite insurgency in
Iraq, which would almost certainly spell a decisive American defeat
there? And, ominously, CIA and FBI officials are said to be hearing
increased "chatter" about new terrorist attacks in America. Analysts
often cite Chamberlain's policy of appeasement that emboldened the
Nazis. But it's also worth considering the lesson of 1914, in which
the world slipped toward a war that could have been avoided had
statesmen escaped the lock-step chain of action and response.

Some U.S. military and intelligence officials said they were puzzled
by Israel's strategy and concerned that its goals are unrealistic, the
Washington Post reports. Israel has "target packages" but no viable
long-term strategy, a senior U.S. official said. There is limited
reason to believe that either Hezbollah or Hamas can be compelled to
give up their Israeli prisoners or end the attacks. Others questioned
the impact on the Lebanese government and the very military force
Israel hopes will eventually take over the areas now under Hezbollah's
control. "Won't Israeli military actions have the effect of decreasing
the already limited capacities of the Lebanese government?" asked
retired Army Col. Andrew Bacevich. "Going after Hezbollah makes sense,
but I just don't understand the rationale for the campaign as it is
being conducted." But retired Israeli army Col. Gal Luft said, "Israel
is attempting to create a rift between the Lebanese population and
Hezbollah supporters by exacting a heavy price from the elite in
Beirut. The message is: If you want your air conditioning to work and
if you want to be able to fly to Paris for shopping, you must pull
your head out of the sand and take action toward shutting down
Hezbollah-land." Other specialists in security strategy said that
Israel is sending messages to several audiences, telling the people of
Lebanon that the attack is the price of tolerating the Hezbollah's
presence and the broader Arab world that its current response is the
price of provoking Israel.

Mexican President Fox rejected claims on Tuesday of fraud in Mexico's
election to replace him.  Fox had stayed out of the growing dispute
about the election, but he finally weighed in on Tuesday during a
visit to Spain. "In Mexico, there is no electoral fraud. Never,'' Fox
told a small group of demonstrators protesting the alleged
vote-rigging. Fox was ridiculed by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the
candidate who says election results that showed him losing by about
0.6 percentage points are bogus. Lopez Obrador said the president was
living in a world of his own, which he called ``Foxilandia.'' Lopez
Obrador again warned on Tuesday of unrest if all the ballots are not
counted again. "If we want political, economic and social stability,
the votes must be counted,'' he said. An opinion poll released on
Tuesday showed about 56 percent of Mexicans think the election was
clean but 35 percent believe there was fraud.

Articles:

1) United States to Israel: you have one more week to blast Hizbullah
Ewen MacAskill, Simon Tisdall and Patrick Wintour
The Guardian
Wednesday July 19, 2006
http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,,1823817,00.html

The US is giving Israel a window of a week to inflict maximum damage
on Hizbullah before weighing in behind international calls for a
ceasefire in Lebanon, according to British, European and Israeli
sources.

2) Israel Violates Law on U.S. Weapons in Mideast
Thalif Deen
Inter Press Service
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=33993

UNITED NATIONS - Israel is in violation of U.S. arms control laws for
deploying U.S.-made fighter planes, combat helicopters and missiles to
kill civilians and destroy Lebanon's infrastructure in the ongoing
six-day devastation of that militarily-weak country.

3) An Embodiment of Iran's Long Shadow: Missiles for Hezbollah
Elaine Sciolino
New York Times
July 19, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/19/world/middleeast/19iran.html

PARIS, July 18 — Iran's support for Hezbollah's actions against Israel
seems to have a twofold purpose: to deflect attention from Tehran's
impasse with the United States and five other nations over its nuclear
program, and to further position itself as a powerful regional player.

4) U.S. Appears to Be Waiting to Act on Israeli Airstrikes
Helene Cooper And Steven Erlanger
New York Times
July 19, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/19/world/middleeast/19cnd-mideast.html

WASHINGTON, July 19 — The outlines of an American-Israeli consensus
began to emerge on Tuesday, in which Israel would continue to bombard
Lebanon for another week or so to degrade the capabilities of the
Hezbollah militia, officials of the two countries said.

5) With Israeli Use of Force, Debate Over Proportion
Steven Erlanger
New York Times
July 19, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/19/world/middleeast/19israel.html

JERUSALEM, July 18 — The asymmetry in the reported death tolls is
marked and growing: some 230 Lebanese dead, most of them civilians, to
25 Israeli dead, 13 of them civilians. In Gaza, one Israel soldier has
died from his own army's fire, and 103 Palestinians have been killed,
70 percent of them militants.

6) U.S. Seeks Mideast Truce That Will Last
Associated Press
July 19, 2006
Filed at 7:35 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-US-Mideast.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Bush administration is not yielding to
international calls for a prompt cease-fire to end Israel's
devastating campaign against Hezbollah militia in Lebanon.

7) Iran's Hizbollah Says Ready to Attack US, Israel
Reuters
July 18, 2006
Filed at 10:05 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-mideast-iran-hizbollah.html

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's Hizbollah, which claims links to the
Lebanese group of the same name, said on Tuesday it stood ready to
attack Israeli and U.S. interests worldwide.

8) Turkey Signals It's Prepared to Enter Iraq
Associated Press
July 18, 2006
Filed at 3:24 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Turkey-Kurds.html

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) -- Turkish officials signaled Tuesday they are
prepared to send the army into northern Iraq if U.S. and Iraqi forces
do not take steps to combat Turkish Kurdish guerrillas there -- a move
that could put Turkey on a collision course with the United States.

9) Evacuations Underway in Beirut
Israel Continues Deadly Airstrikes; Hezbollah Fires Scores of Rockets
Anthony Shadid, Edward Cody and Debbi Wilgoren
Washington Post
Wednesday, July 19, 2006; 9:42 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/19/AR2006071900546.html

BEIRUT, July 19 -- Israeli airstrikes hit targets in Beirut's main
Christian enclave on Wednesday, a short distance from where hundreds
of U.S. citizens were boarding a cruise ship chartered to evacuate
them to the nearby island of Cyprus.

10) End the Slow-Motion Diplomacy
David Ignatius
Washington Post
Wednesday, July 19, 2006; A19
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/18/AR2006071801378.html

A week ago the United States was struggling with two wars: the one it
was fighting in Iraq and the one it hoped to avoid against Iran by
maintaining a solid coalition to stop its nuclear program. Then came
Hezbollah's kidnapping of Israeli soldiers and the ferocious Israeli
response, and, as strategists in Tehran must have anticipated, this
third war complicated America's strategy on the other two fronts.

11) Bush Supports Israel's Move Against Hezbollah
Robin Wright and Thomas E. Ricks
Washington Post
Wednesday, July 19, 2006; A10
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/18/AR2006071801436.html

In blunt language, President Bush yesterday endorsed Israel's campaign
to cripple or eliminate Hezbollah, charged that Syria is trying to
reassert control of Lebanon, and called for the isolation of Iran.

12) Mexican Leftist Warns of Unrest, Fox Denies Fraud
Kieran Murray
Reuters
July 18, 2006
Filed at 6:44 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-mexico-election.html

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - President Vicente Fox rejected claims on
Tuesday of fraud in Mexico's election to replace him but the leftist
who claims he was robbed of victory warned of unrest if all the votes
are not recounted.

-- 
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org