[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy NewsBrief 06_06_28

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy NewsBrief
June 28, 2006

In this issue:
1) Iran Won't Give Up Right to Use Atomic Technology, Leader Says
2) White House Calls Iranian Leader's Response 'Ambiguous'
3) EU - Iran Nuclear Meeting Postponed Until After G8
4) Oil Rises Above $72 on US Summer Gasoline Concern (excerpt)
5) Iran Condemns 9 Arab Citizens to Death
6) No "Talks About Talks" in Iran Nuclear Row: UK
7) Iraqi Says Attacks on U.S. Won't Be Pardoned
8) Rights Activists Come Knocking At the Iranian Interests Section
9) Nation Is Divided on Drawdown Of Troops

Summary:
Just Foreign Policy NewsBrief
June 28, 2006

Summary:

Yesterday morinng it was reported that Iran's supreme religious
leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had said that there was "no use"
negotiating with the United States over Iran's nuclear program,
because Iran had no intention of surrendering its "undeniable right of
using nuclear technology." But if the United States was willing to
recognize Iran's right to pursue nuclear power, "we are willing to
negotiate over controls, inspections and international guarantees."

At the White House yesterday,  press secretary Tony Snow called
Khamenei's comments "ambiguous," and said the administration would not
interpret them as a response to the offer to engage in negotiations.
He noted that the original offer to Iran had been delivered through
the Europeans to Iran's chief negotiator, Ali Larijani, "and we expect
Ali Larijani to transmit the response." Snow also said that the White
House had "seen people provide different kinds of answers, sometimes
different responses between morning and afternoon." Iran received the
proposals June 6, and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said last week
Iran would reply before August 22. The United States and Europe are
pressing for a quicker reply, and have indicated informally it should
come before a G8 summit in Russia on July 15-16. Diplomats said the G8
countries were debating the wording of a statement on Iran for
Thursday's foreign ministers' session in Moscow, which might give some
indication of a desired timetable.

At United Nations headquarters in New York, Secretary-General Kofi
Annan urged Iran's foreign minister to speed up Tehran's response.

A meeting between European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana
and Iran's top nuclear negotiator has been postponed until after Group
of Eight foreign ministers meet on Thursday, an EU diplomat said
Wednesday. Solana will meet Ali Larijani somewhere in Europe next week
to clarify a U.S.-backed package of incentives for Tehran to stop
sensitive nuclear research that the West fears is aimed at producing a
bomb, the diplomat said.

British Foreign Minister Margaret Beckett said on Tuesday that major
world powers would not be drawn into talks about talks as they await
Iran's response to their offer of incentives to defuse a standoff over
Tehran's disputed nuclear program. Beckett also said Tehran had
indicated that it saw ambiguities in the proposals. "We are keen to
ensure that any ambiguities are resolved,'' she said.


Oil edged above $72 a barrel on Wednesday on concerns over disruptions
to gasoline supply during peak summer demand in the world's top
consumer the United States. Prices have been driven up by fund buying
amid fears over real and potential disruptions. Iran, OPEC's #2
producer,  repeated Sunday it stood ready to use its 2.5 million-bpd
of exports in self-defense if threatened by a dispute over its nuclear
program.

Human Rights Watch has called on Iran to rescind the death sentences
imposed on nine Arab Iranians convicted of a series of bomb attacks
that killed 23 people. HRW said the defendants did not get a fair
trial. Arab Iranians make up less than 3 percent of Iran's population
and live mostly in Khuzestan, in southwest Iran.

Iranian diplomats at the Iranian Interests Section in Washington met a
delegation who came to protest the detention of Iranian professor and
philosopher Ramin Jahanbegloo. Jahanbegloo was arrested April 27. He
has been kept at Evin Prison without specific charges or access to
legal defense, according to human rights activists. Jahanbegloo, who
holds Canadian and Iranian citizenship, has written on democracy in
Iran.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki said Tuesday that attacks on
American soldiers would not be pardoned under the rules of a new Iraqi
amnesty plan.  Mr. Maliki sought to allay concerns raised by many in
the United States that the plan, which he unveiled Sunday as part of a
broad effort to reduce insurgent violence, could lead to pardons for
some who had killed American soldiers and spur attacks on American
units. Allies of Mr. Maliki have said that the amnesty, presented by
American officials among many initiatives that would give momentum to
the new government, reflected his relative political weakness.
"Maliki's intentions are good, but he is not free to do as he likes,"
said Mahmoud Othman, a Kurdish member of Parliament. "He is part of
this Shiite bloc, and they don't believe in this initiative to begin
with."

A poll published yesterday in the Washington Post indicates that the
proportion of Americans who favor a deadline for withdrawal of U.S.
troops from Iraq has incrased to 47%, while 51% are opposed. Bush
received low marks on his management of the standoff with Iran over
its nuclear energy program. Nearly six in 10 (57 percent) said they
disapproved of his handling of the situation, while 41 percent
approved.

Articles:
1) Iran Won't Give Up Right to Use Atomic Technology, Leader Says
NAZILA FATHI, New York Times, June 28, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/28/world/middleeast/28iran.html?n=Top%2fNews%2fWorld%2fCountries%20and%20Territories%2fIran

TEHRAN, June 27 — Iran's supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, said Tuesday that there was "no use" negotiating with the
United States over Iran's nuclear program, because his nation had no
intention of surrendering what he called "our undeniable right of
using nuclear technology."

But if the United States was willing to recognize Iran's right to
pursue nuclear power, "we are willing to negotiate over controls,
inspections and international guarantees," he said. "The ground for
such negotiations has been prepared."

To end the international standoff over Iran's nuclear program, the
United States has offered to enter talks if Tehran agrees to halt
uranium enrichment activities. The offer was a significant departure
in American foreign policy, given that Iran and the United States
severed diplomatic ties after student hard-liners attacked the
American Embassy in Tehran in 1979 and held 52 Americans hostage for
444 days.

Despite the shift, Ayatollah Khamenei said, "Negotiation with the
United States has no benefits for us," the ISNA student news agency
reported. Even so, his remarks did not directly address Iran's
position on the package of incentives that six nations — the United
States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany — submitted to Iran
early this month in hopes of persuading it to freeze its enrichment
activities.

At the White House, the press secretary, Tony Snow, called Ayatollah
Khamenei's comments "ambiguous," and said the administration would not
interpret them as a response to the offer to engage in negotiations.
He noted that the original offer to Iran had been delivered through
the Europeans to Iran's chief negotiator, Ali Larijani, "and we expect
Ali Larijani to transmit the response."

Mr. Snow also said that while Ayatollah Khamenei "may not be one in
the chorus," the White House had "seen people provide different kinds
of answers, sometimes different responses between morning and
afternoon."

A senior administration official said this week that he expected Iran
to offer "something well short of full suspension" of its nuclear
activities, and that the administration was now working to "make sure
there is no backsliding on the conditions Iran has to meet." He
declined to speak on the record about internal administration
discussions.

In a major policy change of his own, Ayatollah Khamenei created a
foreign policy committee on Sunday and appointed a former foreign
minister, Kamal Kharrazi, a moderate politician, to lead it for five
years. The committee has four other members, all moderate former
ministers.

Ayatollah Khamenei said in his decree that the committee was to "help
major decision making and search for horizons in Iran's foreign
policy," the daily newspaper Shargh reported.

Rashid Jalali, a member of Parliament, said one of the major
responsibilities of the committee was to give its analysis to the
Iranian leadership about Iran's nuclear policy, the daily newspaper
Etemad Melli reported.

David E. Sanger contributed reporting from Washington for this article.

2) White House Calls Iranian Leader's Response 'Ambiguous'
ASSOCIATED PRESS
June 27, 2006
Filed at 10:47 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Iran-Nuclear.html?n=Top%2fNews%2fWorld%2fCountries%20and%20Territories%2fIran

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said
Tuesday that Iran does not need negotiations with the United States
over its nuclear program, apparently seeking to reassure hard-liners
the country will not cave in as it considers a key Western incentives
package.

Khamenei, who has the final word on all state matters, did not give
his position on the proposals aimed at persuading Iran to impose a
long-term moratorium on enriching uranium.

In Washington, White House press secretary Tony Snow said Khamenei's
remarks were ''ambiguous'' and that the Bush administration has heard
varying responses from different quarters in Iran. He said Washington
expects a formal response from Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Ali
Larijani, to European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana.

''We're waiting for a consistent, official response,'' Snow said.

Iran received the proposals June 6, and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
has said the government will not respond officially until at least
mid-August. The United States and Europe are pressing for a quicker
reply.

The long period of deliberations suggests internal divisions within
Iran's leadership over the proposals, which entail major concessions
from Washington and a difficult compromise by Tehran.

At United Nations headquarters in New York, Secretary-General Kofi
Annan urged Iran's foreign minister to speed up Tehran's response.
Annan met Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki for the second
time in less than a week to discuss the nuclear negotiations.

The United States has said it would join direct talks with Iran, which
is being asked to suspend uranium enrichment -- a program it has vowed
to pursue and never give up completely. Enrichment is a process that
can produce fuel for nuclear generators or the material for nuclear
warheads.

The United States and its allies suspect that Iran's nuclear
enrichment activities are a cover for a weapons program. Iran insists
its nuclear program is limited to peaceful energy uses.

Hard-liners in Iran's clerical-run leadership have called on the
government to reject the proposals and have painted any agreement to
talks with Washington as a surrender.

Khamenei's remarks could be aimed at assuaging their fears by showing
that talks with the United States are not a major lure for the
government and that negotiations with the West will not mean giving up
enrichment.

''Negotiations with the United States would have no benefit for us,
and we do not need them,'' state television quoted Khamenei as telling
visiting Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade.

He said Iran was willing to hold talks on its own terms, warning that
the West can misuse the negotiating process to bar Tehran from what it
considers its right to pursue enrichment.

''We do not negotiate with anybody on achieving and exploiting nuclear
technology,'' Khamenei said. ''But if they recognize our nuclear
rights, we are ready to negotiate about controls, supervisions and
international guarantees.''

Earlier this year, Khamenei supported negotiations with Washington
over stabilizing neighboring Iraq. In doing so, he overruled
hard-liner opposition, though the prospects of U.S.-Iranian talks on
Iraq have fallen apart since then.

If Iran accepts the incentives package, the United States has offered
to join European nations in multilateral talks with Tehran over a
framework that will guarantee its nuclear program cannot produce
weapons.

The package also offers the lifting of some U.S. sanctions and other
economic incentives, as well as a promise of American and European
nuclear technology for Iran.

Washington's offer to join talks was seen as a major concession since
the United States lists Iran as a sponsor of international terrorism
and there have been no diplomatic relations between the two countries
since 1979, when militants stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and took
Americans hostage for 444 days.

President Bush has warned Iran that it faces U.N. Security Council
action unless it accepts the incentives. German Foreign Minister
Frank-Walter Steinmeier warned Iran on Saturday that it faces
isolation if it rejects the package.

3) EU - Iran Nuclear Meeting Postponed Until After G8
REUTERS
June 28, 2006
Filed at 6:23 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-nuclear-iran-eu.html

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - A meeting between European Union foreign policy
chief Javier Solana and Iran's top nuclear negotiator has been
postponed until after Group of Eight foreign ministers meet on
Thursday, an EU diplomat said on Wednesday.

Solana will meet Ali Larijani somewhere in Europe next week to clarify
a U.S.-backed package of incentives for Tehran to stop sensitive
nuclear research that the West fears is aimed at producing a bomb, the
diplomat said.

No reason was given for the delay. Both Solana and Larijani had said
publicly they would meet this week and diplomats said Western
governments were concerned Tehran was trying to string out its
response to divide the major powers.

The European Union, the United States, Russia and China have warned
Iran that the U.N. Security Council will act against it if it does not
suspend uranium enrichment, but they have set no firm deadline and
Moscow and Beijing oppose sanctions.

The Western powers have called for a clear Iranian reply in ''weeks,
not months'' and indicated informally it should come before a G8
summit in Russia on July 15-16.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said last week Iran would reply before
August 22, causing exasperation in Washington and London. Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Tuesday Iran had nothing to gain
from talks with the United States.

Diplomats said the G8 countries were debating the wording of a
statement on Iran for Thursday's foreign ministers' session in Moscow,
which might give some indication of a desired timetable.

British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett warned on Tuesday of the
risk of being sucked into talks about talks.

``What I think there would be some concern about ... if we appeared
that we were entering into a period of negotiation about
negotiations,'' she told parliament.

The White House reacted calmly to Khamenei's comments, saying what
counted was Larijani's official response to Solana on the European
package of political, economic and technological incentives.

Washington has offered to join the EU's talks with Iran if Tehran
verifiably suspends all enrichment-related activity.

4) Oil Rises Above $72 on US Summer Gasoline Concern (excerpt)
REUTERS
June 28, 2006
Filed at 3:23 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-markets-oil.html

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil edged above $72 a barrel on Wednesday on
concerns over disruptions to gasoline supply during peak summer demand
in the world's top consumer the United States.

[...]

U.S. crude has traded between $69 and $72 a barrel for more than a
month as the market balances geopolitical tensions and rising global
demand against inflation fears and brimming U.S. fuel stocks.

U.S. Federal Reserve policy-makers, gathering on Wednesday and
Thursday, are expected to raise interest rates and signal that further
increases may be needed to keep inflation in check.

Adjusted for inflation, oil is at its most costly since 1980, the year
after the Iranian Revolution, and is holding near its record of $75.35
hit in April after climbing from $20 at the start of 2002.

Prices have been driven up by fund buying amid fears over real and
potential disruptions. OPEC's number two producer Iran repeated on
Sunday it stood ready to use its 2.5 million-bpd of exports in
self-defense if threatened by a dispute over its nuclear program.

Despite worries over supplies, OPEC linchpin Saudi Arabia cannot sell
some of its crude production due to a lack of buying interest from oil
refiners, the kingdom's ambassador to the United States told a
conference in Houston on Tuesday.

5) Iran Condemns 9 Arab Citizens to Death
ASSOCIATED PRESS
June 28, 2006
Filed at 1:09 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Iran-Death-Sentences.html

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- An international rights group has called on Iran
to rescind the death sentences imposed on nine Arab Iranians convicted
of a series of bomb attacks that killed 23 people.

New York-based Human Rights Watch said the defendants had limited
access to lawyers and did not get a fair trial.

The nine were among 24 defendants charged with the plotting against
the state in proceedings that lasted two days this month in Ahvaz,
capital of Khuzestan province, said a defense lawyer, Saleh Nikbakhat.

The bombings last June, October and January in Ahvaz killed 23 people
and wounded dozens.

Arab Iranians make up less than 3 percent of Iran's population and
live mostly in Khuzestan, in southwest Iran.

A Web site claiming to represent Arab secessionists in the Ahvaz
region said they carried out the Jan. 24 attack, in which bombs
exploded in a bank and outside a government building, killing six
people and wounding 46 others. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was due
to visit Ahvaz that day, but canceled the trip a few hours beforehand.

The Web site said the attack was ''revenge for the blood of our
martyrs and (to signal) our rejection of the terrorist Ahmadinejad's
defiling the land of Ahvaz in his visit.''

On June 8, the court found nine defendants to be enemies of God, and
sentenced them to death, Nikbakhat said.

The other 15 defendants received sentences ranging from seven to 30
years in prison, Nikbakhat said.

6) No "Talks About Talks" in Iran Nuclear Row: UK
REUTERS
June 27, 2006
Filed at 1:34 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/news/news-nuclear-iran-britain.html

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain said on Tuesday that major world powers
would not be drawn into talks about talks as they await Iran's
response to their offer of incentives to defuse a standoff over
Tehran's disputed nuclear program.

A package of incentives to encourage Iran to give up uranium
enrichment was hammered out by U.N Security Council permanent members
France, the United States, Russia, China and Britain plus Germany, and
presented to Iran earlier this month.

The United States and Britain want an answer within weeks not months.
But last week Iran said it would respond by Aug 22, prompting fears
that the Islamic Republic is playing for time.

``What I think there would be some concern about ... if we appeared
that we were entering into a period of negotiation about
negotiations,'' British Foreign Minister Margaret Beckett told
parliament.

She said the offer was clear that negotiations on Iran's nuclear
program could only resume if Tehran resumed its suspension of
enrichment.

Beckett also said Tehran had indicated, both in public and private,
that it saw ambiguities in the proposals.

``We are keen to ensure that any ambiguities are resolved,'' she said.

``We have been and continue to press the Iranian government for a
further meeting to take place between (EU foreign policy chief) Javier
Solana andLarijani and I hope such a meeting will take place in the
near future.''

If Iran rejects the package it could face U.N. Security Council sanctions.

The United States and some of its Western allies suspect Iran is
seeking to develop a nuclear bomb.

Iran, the world's fourth biggest oil exporter, argues it needs atomic
technology to meet booming power demand in civilian plants.

Foreign ministers from the Group of Eight industrialized nations will
discuss Iran at a meeting in Russia on Thursday.

7) Iraqi Says Attacks on U.S. Won't Be Pardoned
SABRINA TAVERNISE and JOHN F. BURNS
June 28, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/28/world/middleeast/28iraq.html

BAGHDAD, Iraq, June 27 — Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki said
publicly on Tuesday for the first time that attacks on American
soldiers would not be pardoned under the rules of a new Iraqi amnesty
plan.

In his first meeting with Western journalists since he became prime
minister a month ago, Mr. Maliki sought to allay concerns raised by
many in the United States that the plan, which he unveiled Sunday as
part of a broad effort to reduce insurgent violence, could lead to
pardons for some who had killed American soldiers and spur attacks on
American units.

Americans, he said, came to Iraq to help make it free. "Therefore, out
of respect for their contribution to Iraq," no pardon will be offered
to their killers, or to insurgents who have killed Iraqi soldiers and
police officers, he said.

It was the most unequivocal statement by any Iraqi official about the
amnesty, which had caused confusion among Iraqi political leaders as
well as American officials since it was announced in broad terms on
Sunday.

The amnesty is part of a "national reconciliation" program that Mr.
Maliki, a Shiite, offered in an effort to find a political solution to
the violence that continues to kill dozens of people a day, a vast
majority of them Iraqi civilians. Iraq now has an elected government
with a four-year term, but it has failed to improve security here in
the battered capital, where Sunni and Shiite militias continue to kill
with impunity, and some neighborhoods have sunk into conditions
resembling anarchy.

Insurgent violence on Tuesday claimed the lives of 21 Iraqis and 2
American servicemen, and wounded an additional 41 people. The American
military also announced the deaths of 2 service members killed Monday
in fighting in Anbar Province.

Mr. Maliki was at pains on Tuesday to explain his reconciliation plan,
which emerged from long consultations with the competing political
blocs in his national unity government, but drew criticism for the
vagueness of its amnesty provisions. They reflected the deep divisions
in the government.

Religious Shiites strongly opposed amnesty for Sunni insurgents, while
Sunni Arabs said it would be meaningless without provisions to
encourage insurgents to disarm. The Americans strongly favored
reaching out to the insurgents, but opposed anything amounting to a
pardon for rebels who participated in killing Americans, more than
2,500 of whom have died in the three-year war.

Despite the vagueness of the amnesty terms, Mr. Maliki said the plan
had drawn widespread interest from groups important to its success,
including members of political militias, tribal groups, religious
leaders and insurgent groups. He would not identify the insurgent
groups.

Asked to identify the sort of groups and individuals who would be
eligible, he cited Iraqis who had carried out "sabotage" against the
government, though only "minor" acts, as well as to those who had
joined the insurgency out of hostility for the American-sponsored
political process but had not killed anyone. He said it also would
apply to members of the Baath Party of Saddam Hussein who renounced
that allegiance. Insurgents who face trial over attacks would be
eligible for pardons if they were found not guilty of any killings.

"Whoever can prove himself innocent of murder in the judicial process
will be allowed to join the political process," he said.

Allies of Mr. Maliki have said that the amnesty, presented by American
officials and the prime minister's aides among many initiatives that
would give momentum to the new government, reflected his relative
political weakness.

"Maliki's intentions are good, but he is not free to do as he likes,"
said Mahmoud Othman, a Kurdish member of Parliament. "He is part of
this Shiite bloc, and they don't believe in this initiative to begin
with."

Also on Tuesday, American military commanders released new details
about three American servicemen killed by insurgents last week near
Yusufiya. Maj. Gen. James Thurman, the commander of American forces in
Baghdad, said 8,000 American and Iraqi troops followed a trail of
"evidence," in a power plant, in a pickup truck there and on a canal
road that helped lead to the bodies of two of the soldiers who had
disappeared after an attack on June 16. The third soldier, who was
killed in the initial attack, was found in the canal, he said.

"We did not know the demise of the two soldiers at that point," he
said. Also on Tuesday, the Iranian Fars News Agency reported that
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran would visit Iraq to meet
President Jalal Talabani. A spokesman for Mr. Talabani, Kameran
Qaradaghi, said he had no details about the visit.

Marine Won't Be Punished for Song

WASHINGTON, June 27 (Reuters) — The United States military will not
punish a marine who performed a graphically violent and
obscenity-laced song to a laughing and cheering crowd of fellow
soldiers in Iraq, making light of killing Iraqis, the Marine Corps
said Tuesday.

The Marines two weeks ago began a preliminary inquiry into whether the
marine, Cpl. Joshua Belile, who returned home from Iraq in March, had
violated military law or rules by singing the song, a four-minute
video of which was posted on the Internet.

"No punitive action will be taken against Corporal Belile, and there
will be no further investigation," said Maj. Shawn Haney, a
spokeswoman at Marine Corps Air Station Cherry Point in North
Carolina.

8) Rights Activists Come Knocking At the Iranian Interests Section
Nora Boustany
Washington Post
Wednesday, June 28, 2006; A21
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/27/AR2006062701741.html


Iranian diplomats at the Iranian Interests Section on Wisconsin Avenue
listened courteously to a delegation of prominent individuals who came
calling last Friday to protest the detention of Iranian professor and
philosopher Ramin Jahanbegloo . But the envoys offered no explanation
for the arrest or word of when the prisoner might go free.

The Sorbonne graduate was arrested April 27 at Tehran's Mehrabad
Airport while trying to board a flight to Brussels. He has been kept
at Evin Prison without specific charges or access to legal defense,
according to human rights activists.

A holder of dual Canadian and Iranian citizenship, he has written
widely on the subject of democracy in Iran and is well known outside
the country. He is director of contemporary studies at the Cultural
Research Bureau, a private group in Tehran.

Iran has had no diplomatic relations with the United States since the
embassy hostage crisis of a quarter-century ago. But its government
maintains an outpost here in the form of the interests section, which
technically is part of the Embassy of Pakistan.

Joe Stork, deputy director of Human Rights Watch's Middle East
division, spoke on behalf of the group calling at the section's
offices. He told the diplomats that "the Iranian government is
responsible for the safety of its citizens," Stork said in an
interview.

The group was scheduled to meet with Ali Jazini , head of the
interests section. But it ended up delivering its letter of protest to
two junior deputies, who said they did not know much about the issue,
according to Fariba Amini , who helped organize the visit and
accompanied the group.

Amini said in an interview yesterday that the aides apologized
profusely for the absence of Jazini. The junior officers promised,
however, to forward a letter from the group to the Foreign Ministry in
Tehran and to judicial authorities there.

"The illegal arrest and imprisonment of individuals who seek justice
in Iran is against all international and legal jurisdictions," the
letter said. "Additionally, we ask for the freedom of all political
detainees who are held in Iran's various prisons for participating in
peaceful gatherings."

The delegation also included Joanne Leedom Ackerman , vice president
of International P.E.N., a writers association; Zahir Janmohamed ,
Amnesty International's advocacy director for the Middle East and
North Africa; and Trita Parsi , president of the National Iranian
American Council.

The Rev. Mphu Tutu , director of the Tutu Institute and daughter of
South African Archbishop Desmond Tutu , also sent a letter with the
delegation pressing for Jahanbegloo's release.

9) Nation Is Divided on Drawdown Of Troops
Poll Shows Growth In Support for Bush
Dan Balz and Richard Morin
Washington Post
Tuesday, June 27, 2006; A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/26/AR2006062600250.html

With military commanders weighing possible troop reductions in Iraq,
Americans are sharply divided along partisan lines over whether to set
a deadline for withdrawing all U.S. forces there, according to a new
Washington Post-ABC News poll.

About half, 51 percent, oppose a deadline for getting out of Iraq, but
the margin has dwindled as insurgents have continued to kill U.S.
troops. The poll found that 47 percent now favor some kind of
deadline, up eight percentage points since December. Two thirds of
Democrats support setting a deadline, more than double the proportion
of Republicans who want a timetable for withdrawal. Among
independents, 44 percent support a deadline.

President Bush's approval rating rebounded from its lowest point a
month ago and now stands at 38 percent. That is five points higher
than it was in May, though still weak enough to cause Republicans to
worry about their electoral chances in November.

But the survey offered some hopeful signs for Bush and the Republicans
as they prepare for the midterm elections. The big advantage that
Democrats held on virtually every major issue has narrowed or
reversed. On the question of which party is best able to handle the
situation in Iraq, the Democrats' 14-point advantage in last month's
Post-ABC poll has been cut in half; they now have a 47 percent lead
over Republicans' 41 percent.

A month ago, Democrats held a five-point lead over Republicans on
dealing with international terrorism. Republicans now hold a
seven-point advantage. On the economy, the Democratic advantage has
narrowed from 18 points to 13 points since May.

In the so-called generic ballot question -- in which people are asked
which party's House candidate they prefer without mentioning any
politicians' names -- Democrats continue to hold an advantage. A
majority of registered voters -- 52 percent -- said they would vote
for the Democrat; 39 percent said they would back the Republican.
Democrats have maintained a double-digit edge throughout the year on
this indicator of electoral intentions.

The issue of troop levels has dominated the debate in Washington over
the past week, with the Senate engaging in a partisan fight last week
over two proposals by Democrats -- one setting a deadline for summer
2007 for troops to be withdrawn and the other calling for a phased
withdrawal but establishing no timetable. The first was soundly
defeated, with 13 Democrats and no Republicans supporting it. The
second also lost, but most Senate Democrats voted for it.

The Post-ABC News poll found far more support for a deadline among
Democrats than was reflected by Senate Democrats last week. Currently,
66 percent of all Democrats surveyed said they favor a deadline, up
three percentage points from last December.

Even larger increases occurred among Republicans, 28 percent of whom
now support a fixed timetable, up 10 points from December. The
proportion of political independents favoring a firm date rose eight
points, to 44 percent.

The largest increase occurred among self-identified liberals, 65
percent of whom now support a withdrawal deadline, up 13 points since
December. Half of all moderates and a third of all conservatives also
support a deadline. The survey found that support for setting a
deadline for withdrawal increased across virtually all major political
and demographic groups.

The gender gap on withdrawal is among the largest of any Iraq-related
question. Currently, 38 percent of all men and 55 percent of all women
favor a deadline, with support increasing by seven points among men
and by nine points among women in the past seven months. There is a
six-point difference in the percentage of men who think the Iraq war
was worth fighting (43 percent), compared with women who do (37
percent).

A total of 1,000 randomly selected adults were interviewed June 22-25
for this survey. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three
percentage points for the overall results.

Over the weekend, the New York Times reported that Gen. George W.
Casey, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, had briefed officials about a
plan for reducing troop levels beginning later this year. The report
prompted howls of complaint from Democrats, who said Republicans had
attacked them for suggesting something the administration was
discussing privately.

Bush played down talk of troop withdrawals yesterday. "In terms of our
troop presence there, that decision will be made by General Casey, as
well as the sovereign government of Iraq, based upon conditions on the
ground," he said. "And one of the things that General Casey assured me
of is that, whatever recommendation he makes, it will be aimed toward
achieving victory."

Military insiders say that rather than pushing for troop cuts, Casey
is resisting them. Some other top commanders have thought for some
time that it should be possible to reduce troop levels in Iraq, but
Casey is said to worry that doing so too quickly could undermine the
fledgling Iraqi government and overburden it too soon.

"To push Iraqi forces to the fore before they are ready is not
'leaving to win,' it is rushing to failure," said Kalev Sepp, an
expert on insurgency who has advised Casey.

The new poll showed less pessimism about some aspects of the war.
Three months ago, 43 percent of Americans said the United States was
making significant progress toward restoring civil order in Iraq, with
56 percent disagreeing. After the killing of insurgent leader Abu
Musab al-Zarqawi and the formation of a new government, Americans are
now evenly divided, with 48 percent saying they see significant
progress and 49 percent saying they do not.

The public gives both Bush and the Democrats low marks on having a
plan for success in Iraq. Almost two in three (64 percent) said Bush
does not have a clear plan, while almost three in four (71 percent)
said the same about Democrats in Congress.

After reaching a historic low of 33 percent last month, Bush's job
approval rating increased five percentage points, buoyed by more
favorable views of the way he was handling the situation in Iraq.
Currently, 37 percent of the country approves of the job the president
is doing in Iraq, up five points from its historic low in May.

But other key measures remained unchanged or down slightly from last
month. The percentage of Americans who support Bush's handling of the
campaign against terrorism dipped two points, to 51 percent. And 38
percent support the way he is dealing with the economy, unchanged from
May.

Bush also received relatively low marks on his management of the
standoff with Iran over its nuclear energy program. Nearly six in 10
(57 percent) said they disapproved of his handling of the situation,
while 41 percent approved.


--
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org