[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, November 9, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy News
November 9, 2006

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Summary:
U.S./Top News
Democrats won a 51st seat in the Senate and regained total control of
Congress after 12 years of near-domination by the Republican Party, AP
reported this morning. Democrats issued calls for bipartisanship even
as they vowed to investigate administration policies and decisions.

Rumsfeld's resignation resignation opens the possibility of closing
the detention facility at Guantánamo, the Miami Herald reports.

In 2004, Robert Gates, Bush's nominee to replace Rumsfeld, recommended
that the U.S. government lift its ban on US nongovernmental
organizations being able to operate in Iran, the New York Times
reports. Gates said, "Greater interaction between Iranians and the
rest of the world," he said, "sets the stage for the kind of internal
change that we all hope will happen there."

President Bush acknowdged that he "dissembled" (a euphemism for lying)
when he told a reporter before the election that he wanted Rumsfeld to
stay for another two years, the Los Angeles Times reports.

Iraqis on Thursday cheered the resignation of U.S. Defense Secretary
Rumsfeld, AP reports.

Democratic control of the House and possibly the Senate, combined with
the resignation of Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, has set the stage for a
dramatic shift in the Bush administration's policy toward the Iraq
war, the Washington Post reports.

Iraqi leaders, bolstered by assurances from U.S. Ambassador Khalilzad,
said yesterday they saw no change in the level of U.S. support,
despite the Democratic electoral victory and the resignation of
Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, Reuters reports.

Iran
Western diplomats said Moscow has grown impatient with Iran's refusal
to open all its facilities to inspections by the IAEA, Reuters
reports. Russia has told Iran Russia will "have to back some sanctions
in the end," and that Russia find's Iran's "refusal to let the IAEA
into some facilities incomprehensible and that Iran would benefit the
most from such transparency because it would dispel all doubts."

India detained an empty North Korean cargo ship bound for Iran after
it strayed into Indian waters, Reuters reports. A Security Council
resolution calls on U.N. members to take steps, including inspection
of cargoes to and from North Korea to prevent illicit trafficking in
nuclear, chemical and biological weapons. Indian officials said they
were not acting at the behest of the U.N. but simply because a
suspicious ship had entered Indian waters.

Iran's press wrote with glee on Thursday about the drubbing President
Bush's Republicans received in U.S. elections but predicted it would
only moderate, not radically change, U.S. foreign policy, Reuters
reports.

Iraq
Iraq's parliament voted Wednesday to extend the country's state of
emergency for 30 more days, as at least 66 more Iraqis were killed or
found dead, AP reports. The state of emergency has been renewed every
month since it was first authorized in November 2004.

Lebanon
Lebanon faces a political crisis with the emerging power of Lebanon's
Shiite population and the Christians' feeling of vulnerability, the
New York Times reports.

Palestine
Israeli tank shells killed 18 Palestinians, including 8 children and 6
women, in Gaza Wednesday, the New York Times reports. Some Hamas
leaders called for retaliation inside Israel. Hamas's military wing
also said the US should be taught "hard lessons" as well. The threat
was an unusual escalation for Hamas, which has portrayed its fight as
being against Israel alone. It was immediately disavowed by a
spokesman for the Hamas-led Palestinian government.

Afghanistan
Afghans have lost confidence in the direction of their country over
the past two years, according to a survey financed by USAID.

Venezuela
Since President Chávez returned to power after a coup in 2002, the US
has channeled millions of dollars to Venezuelan organizations, many of
them critical of his government. This aid has become a key issue in
the presidential election next month, the New York Times reports.

Cyprus
The EU Wednesday issued its strongest warning yet to Turkey to open
its ports to Cyprus and make more progress on human rights or face a
possible suspension of talks over allowing the country to join the EU,
the New York Times reports.

Contents:
U.S./Top News
1) Democrats win control of Congress
Jim Kuhnhenn, Associated Press, November 9, 2006, 10:35 Eastern
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061109/ap_on_el_ge/eln_election_rdp
Democrats won a 51st seat in the Senate and regained total control of
Congress after 12 years of near-domination by the Republican Party.
The shift dramatically alters the government's balance of power,
leaving President Bush without GOP congressional control to drive his
legislative agenda. Democrats hailed the results and issued calls for
bipartisanship even as they vowed to investigate administration
policies and decisions.

Democrats completed their sweep Wednesday evening by ousting
Republican Sen. George Allen of Virginia, the last of six GOP
incumbents to lose re-election bids in a midterm election marked by
deep dissatisfaction with the president and the war in
Iraq. In the House, Democrats won 230 seats and led in two races,
while Republicans won 196 seats and led in seven races. If current
trends hold, Democrats would have a 232-203 majority - 14 more than
the number necessary to hold the barest of majorities in the
435-member chamber. Without losing any seats of their own, Democrats
captured 28 GOP-held seats.

Allen lost to Democrat Jim Webb, a former Republican who served as
Navy secretary in the Reagan administration. A count by The Associated
Press showed Webb with 1,172,538 votes and Allen with 1,165,302, a
difference of 7,236. Allen was awaiting the results of a statewide
postelection canvass of votes and did not concede the race.

2) Rumsfeld Exit May Reopen Detention Issue
Guantánamo was Donald Rumsfeld's baby. Now, some see a chance for
change in the U.S. war-on-terrorism detention policy.
Carol Rosenberg, Miami Herald, Posted on Thu, Nov. 09, 2006	
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/breaking_news/15965812.htm
>From his perch at the Pentagon, Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld had an
intimate, early interest in the creation of the detention center for
terrorism suspects at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba. With a stroke of his pen,
he approved, temporarily, the harshest of interrogation tactics used
there and was an outspoken advocate of the U.S. policy of indefinite
detention without civilian court review.

Now, analysts say, his resignation offers the Bush administration a
chance to rethink the controversial policies that have earned the US
international condemnation. "It has become such a bad example of a lot
of things - the military generally, bad planning, lack of foresight
and the specific intention to abuse people," said retired Rear Adm.
John Hutson, dean of the Franklin Pierce Law Center. "The US tried to
create a prison where no law touched; I think [Rumsfeld's resignation]
presents the opportunity to close it."

>From 1997 to 2000, Hutson was the Navy's top uniformed lawyer. Then he
left a 28-year military career. As a civilian, he soon emerged as an
outspoken critic of the legal framework that created the detention
center at the U.S. Navy base in southeastern Cuba. Now, he said, the
military can't set everyone free but can redefine the standard for
holding men, let some go, transfer others elsewhere, and bring
stateside those who can legitimately be convicted of crimes.

On Wednesday, there was "huge relief he's gone" among British national
security circles, said Richard Norton-Taylor, The Guardian newspaper's
security affairs editor, in an e-mail from London. "UK security and
intelligence agencies - MI5 and MI6 - were aghast at the way Rumsfeld
triumphantly displayed the first Guantánamo prisoners," he said. He
described the stark images from Camp X-Ray, which persist even today,
as "a terrible hostage to fortune ... in the fight against terrorism
and struggle for hearts and minds."

Democrats in the past have opposed the stripping of habeas corpus
protections from Guantánamo detainees. Some have called for the
center's closure, if only to improve the international standing of the
US, by moving some of the captives to detention elsewhere.

3) Robert Gates, A Cautious Player From A Past Bush Team
Scott Shane, New York Times, November 9, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/09/washington/09gates.html
In choosing Robert Gates as his next defense secretary, President Bush
reached back to an earlier era in Republican foreign policy, one
marked more by caution and pragmatism than that of the
neoconservatives who have shaped the Bush administration's war in Iraq
and confrontations with Iran and North Korea.

Gates is in many ways the antithesis of Rumsfeld. He has been
privately critical of the administration's failure to execute its
military and political plans for Iraq, and he has spent the last six
months quietly debating new approaches to the war, as a member of the
Iraq Study Group run by James Baker and Lee Hamilton.

It was under Bush's father that Gates first rose to influence, as
deputy national security adviser and then director of central
intelligence. He was not part of the group that advised the current
President Bush during his 2000 campaign, and he has publicly
questioned the administration's approach to Iran, saying in a 2004
report for the Council on Foreign Relations that its refusal to talk
to the Tehran government was ultimately self-defeating.

"This is a signal that there will be a major effort to avoid
confrontation on national security issues," said Dov Zakheim, a former
senior official in Rumsfeld's Pentagon who left the administration in
2004. He described Gates as "a pragmatist and a realist" who would be
"no lightning rod."

A longtime Soviet analyst who spent two decades at the CIA, Gates
served as deputy to Brent Scowcroft, the national security adviser,
during the administration of George H. W. Bush. There, he worked
closely with Baker and Rice. Gen. Michael Hayden, now C.I.A. director,
also served on the staff of the National Security Council at the time.

Gates was confirmed in 1991 as director of central intelligence after
a bruising confirmation fight in which subordinates alleged that he
had politicized reporting on the Soviet Union.

If Gates was initially reluctant to return to Washington, it may be
because he knows what it means to be at the center of political
crossfire. First picked by President Reagan in 1987 to succeed Casey,
Gates withdrew in the face of senators' concern that he had not been
candid about his knowledge of the Iran-contra affair.

A hint of the approach Gates might bring to the job, drawing on his
experience at the end of the cold war, can be found in his remarks in
2004 at the release of the Council on Foreign Relations report, called
"Iran: Time for a New Approach."

"One of our recommendations is that the U.S. government lift its ban
in terms of nongovernmental organizations being able to operate in
Iran," Gates said. "Greater interaction between Iranians and the rest
of the world," he said, "sets the stage for the kind of internal
change that we all hope will happen there."

4) President Admits Rumsfeld Pretense
James Gerstenzang, Los Angeles Times, November 9, 2006
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-na-leaving9nov09,1,5367458.story
A week ago, President Bush said in an interview with news service
reporters that he wanted Defense Secretary Rumsfeld to remain at the
Pentagon for the administration's final two years. On Wednesday, he
said Rumsfeld was leaving, and he made it clear that he agreed there
was a need for a "fresh perspective" at the Defense Department.

Challenged at a White House news conference about his show of support
for Rumsfeld last week, Bush said he had given that answer because he
had not had a "final conversation" with the secretary about the need
for a "fresh perspective," though he as much as knew that a shift was
coming.

Explaining his apparent dissembling, the president said he did not
want to inject "a major decision about this war in the final days of a
campaign." "The only way to answer that question and to get you onto
another question was to give you that answer," he said to a reporter
who took part in the interview.

Bush also said a week ago that the position of Vice President Dick
Cheney - who, with Rumsfeld, has been a leading architect of war
policy - was secure. "Both those men are doing fantastic jobs," he
said then. Before a reporter could finish asking Wednesday whether
Cheney would be vice president for the next two years, Bush cut him
off. "Yes, he will," he said.

5) Iraqis Cheer Rumsfeld Departure
Sameer N. Yacoub, Associated Press, Thursday, November 9, 2006; 6:33 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/09/AR2006110900279.html
Iraqis on Thursday cheered the resignation of U.S. Defense Secretary
Rumsfeld, blaming him for policy failures and scandals they say helped
spawn the daily sectarian carnage wracking their nation. "Rumsfeld's
resignation shows the scale of the mess the U.S. has made in Iraq,"
said Ibrahim Ali, who works at the Oil Ministry. "The efforts by
American politicians to hide their failure are no longer working."

Many in Baghdad said they expect changes in the U.S. approach under
Rumsfeld's expected replacement, former CIA director Robert Gates. "I
think that there will a shift in the U.S. policy in Iraq after his
resignation," said Osama Ahmed, a civil servant.

What changes could be in store aren't yet clear, although ideas for a
new strategy are being studied by an independent U.S. commission led
by former Secretary of State Baker and former Rep. Hamilton. The White
House says it is opposed to two prominent options - the partitioning
of Iraq or a phased withdrawal of troops.

Whatever suggestions are put forward, however, Iraqis said Rumsfeld's
departure was a positive move. "Rumsfeld's resignation is a good step
because he failed to keep security in Iraq," said Saad Jawad, a former
army officer who also works at the Oil Ministry.

Many Iraqis blamed Rumsfeld for spurring the emergence of Sunni
insurgents and Shiite militias by disbanding the former Iraqi army
following the April 2003 toppling of the former government of Saddam
Hussein. Although that order was actually issued by former top U.S.
administrator in Iraq, L. Paul Bremer, such sentiments show how widely
Rumsfeld is identified with failed policies in Iraq.

"I am happy with Rumsfeld's resignation because he played a major role
in disbanding the former Iraqi army. He participated in building the
new army on a sectarian basis," said Louai Abdel-Hussein, a Shiite who
owns a small grocery in Baghdad.

Ahmed, the civil servant, said Rumsfeld should also be held
responsible for crimes by American forces in Iraq, particularly the
abuse of Iraqis at Abu Ghraib prison that became known in 2004.
"Rumsfeld's resignation is not enough," Ahmed said. "He should be put
under investigation for his responsibility in the crimes committed in
Abu Ghraib and the killings and rapes carried out by U.S. soldiers
against Iraqi citizens, he said.

6) Stage Set For Iraq Policy Shift
Both Parties May Seek Cover in Recommendations of Study Group
Glenn Kessler & Thomas E. Ricks, Washington Post, Thursday, November
9, 2006; A25
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/08/AR2006110802517.html
Democratic control of the House and possibly the Senate, combined with
the resignation of Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, has set the stage for a
dramatic shift in the Bush administration's policy toward the Iraq
war, lawmakers and experts said. The contours of a new policy are not
clear, but there is likely to be more pressure on the Iraqi government
to rein in sectarian violence and a growing clamor from Democrats to
begin a drawdown of U.S. troops.

Rumsfeld is slated to be replaced by Robert Gates, a member of the
bipartisan Iraq Study Group who has spent recent weeks learning the
problems of the administration's current approach. Unlike Rumsfeld,
who was widely seen as a roadblock to a shift in strategy, Gates is
expected to be much more receptive to implementing the group's
recommendations, due to be made public about Dec. 7.

Gates has been frustrated that the administration has been unable to
adjust to changing circumstances in Iraq, according to one person who
has spoken to him about the administration's management of the war.
Gates, he said, believes "you can't be afraid to adjust your action to
adjust to the realities on the ground."

Sen. Biden, who would chair the Senate Foreign Relations Committee if
Democrats capture the Virginia Senate seat and control of the Senate,
said he understood that Gates "has a much more pragmatic and realistic
view of the place we find ourselves" in Iraq and is much more willing
to work with the uniformed military than Rumsfeld was.

Even before the election, both Democrats and Republicans had been
eagerly awaiting the recommendations of the study group, which is
headed by former secretary of state Baker, and former representative
Hamilton. The group of mainstream foreign policy experts is not poised
to make radical suggestions when it unveils its report, but official
Washington has expected both parties to seize on its ideas for
political cover.

One senior Senate aide said both parties are looking for an exit from
Iraq out of "pure political interests." After their devastating
losses, Republicans do not want Iraq to be an electoral albatross in
2008; Democrats, meanwhile, do not want it to still be the first order
of business if they reoccupy the White House in 2009.

Biden said that a number of Republicans have told him privately that
they are willing to push for a change in course on Iraq after the
election. "We have a narrow window before 2008 kicks in to get a
bipartisan consensus on Iraq," he said.

The Baker-Hamilton study group is not expected to call for pulling out
of Iraq quickly. Rather, insiders say, the most likely recommendation
will be to curtail the goal of democratizing Iraq and instead
emphasize stability. That might entail devoting more resources to
training and equipping Iraq's military, perhaps by radically
increasing the size of the U.S. training and advisory effort.

Pelosi said the administration and Congress need to work together "to
send a clear message to the Iraqi government and people that they must
disarm the militias, they must amend their constitution, they must
engage in regional diplomacy to bring more stability and
reconstruction to Iraq, and that we must begin the responsible
redeployment of our troops outside of Iraq."

Ike Skelton, who likely will take over as chairman of the House Armed
Services Committee, last year sent Bush a letter calling for the
removal of one U.S. brigade - about 3,500 troops - for every three
Iraqi brigades deemed capable. He said Bush told him his formula was
"too rigid," but Skelton said he will press for this approach from his
new position of power. "I think this is an important opportunity to
begin a new policy direction," he said.

7) Iraqis see no shift in U.S. support
Mussab Al-Khairalla, Reuters, November 9, 2006
http://www.washtimes.com/world/20061109-122537-1977r.htm
Iraqi leaders, bolstered by assurances from U.S. Ambassador Zalmay
Khalilzad, said yesterday they saw no change in the level of U.S.
support, despite the Democratic electoral victory and the resignation
of Defense Secretary Rumsfeld. Iraqi government spokesman Ali
al-Dabbagh said Rumsfeld's departure was an internal matter for the
US. "We are dealing with an administration, not persons," he said.

But ordinary citizens said they saw little hope that the power shift
in Washington could restore their wrecked country or bring a quick end
to the daily violence. Speaking before Rumsfeld's departure was
revealed, Khalilzad told a reception attended by government officials,
Iraqi legislators and U.S. Embassy personnel that "the president is
the architect of U.S. foreign policy." President Bush "understands
what's at stake in Iraq. He is committed to working with both houses
of Congress to get support needed for the mission in Iraq to succeed,"
Khalilzad said.

Bush, in a White House press conference yesterday, acknowledged
problems with the Iraq effort, but said Tuesday's vote would not
weaken U.S. resolve. "The enemy is going to say, 'Well, [the election]
must mean America is going to leave.' And the answer is, 'No.' "  But
Iraq's continuing problems were on display again yesterday as the
parliament voted to extend the country's state of emergency for 30
more days amid reports that at least 66 more Iraqis were killed or
found dead. Yesterday's deaths included those of eight soccer players
and fans cut down by a pair of mortar rounds that slammed into a field
in Baghdad's Sadr City neighborhood. The U.S. military, meanwhile,
announced the deaths of a soldier and a Marine, raising the number of
American forces killed in Iraq in the first eight days of November to
21.

Iran
8) Iran's Larijani to visit Russia on Friday
Valery Stepchenkov, Reuters, Thursday, November 9, 2006; 7:05 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/09/AR2006110900286.html
Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani will visit Moscow on
Friday amid concern in the West about Russia's readiness to back U.N.
sanctions against Tehran over its nuclear program. "The Secretary of
the (Iranian) National Security Council, Mr Larijani, arrives in
Moscow tomorrow and he will have negotiations in the Russian Security
Council and the Foreign Ministry," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov told reporters.

Russia says it is determined to prevent Tehran obtaining a nuclear
weapon but has tried to water down a draft UN resolution on sanctions
being thrashed out by EU envoys. Speaking at a meeting with his
Bahraini counterpart, Lavrov said Russia believed the best way out of
the standoff with Iran was multilateral talks between Tehran and major
powers. "We are still convinced that there is a place for the
continuation of peaceful negotiations," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry
Peskov said. "Sanctions are very sensitive...and we have to behave
extremely responsibly."

Western diplomats said Moscow has grown increasingly impatient with
Iran's refusal to open all its facilities to inspections by the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). "The Russians have told the
Iranians that they will have to back some sanctions in the end," a
diplomat told Reuters. "They told the Iranians that they find their
refusal to let the IAEA into some facilities incomprehensible and that
Iran would benefit the most from such transparency because it would
dispel all doubts."

An EU diplomat said Iran has been barring inspectors from bunkers and
tunnels which U.N. inspectors have good grounds for wanting to visit.
Lavrov said Moscow's proposal to enrich uranium for Iran's nuclear
power program on Russian soil should be on the agenda when any
multilateral talks started. Moscow made the enrichment offer earlier
this year but received no response from Iran. "There have been no
changes in our position whatsoever," RIA news agency quoted Lavrov as
saying. "We are pursuing the resumption of talks as soon as possible.
When talks start all options that would help the non-proliferation
regime will be examined. In this context, I think our proposal (to
enrich uranium for Iran) will be very much in demand."

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki had been due to visit
Moscow this week but this was postponed. Tehran requested the
postponement, Lavrov said, without giving the reason. Russia is
carrying out a multi-million dollar contract to build a nuclear power
station for Iran at Bushehr, on the Persian Gulf. Some western
diplomats say Moscow is concerned any sanctions may affect that
contract.

9) Detained Iran-bound North Korea ship baffles India
Reuters, Thursday, November 9, 2006; 2:59 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/09/AR2006110900124.html
India has detained an empty North Korean cargo ship bound for Iran
after it strayed into Indian waters, baffling coast guard officials
and police about the purpose of its voyage. "MV Omrani-II" developed a
snag and entered Indian waters on October 29 and was towed to the
Mumbai Port where the crew was being questioned by Indian intelligence
and customs officials. "The crew has not been able to explain why they
were sailing an empty vessel to Iran," a senior coast guard official
told Reuters on condition of anonymity on Thursday.

However a senior official at the Directorate General of Shipping said:
"They have told us that because it is a new ship they were testing it.
But it is strange that they should need to sail as far as Iran."
Officials said documents for the new 45-meter vessel were in order,
although life-saving equipment was found to be deficient.

A U.N. Security Council resolution imposing sanctions on North Korea
after its October 9 nuclear test calls on U.N. members to take steps,
including "as necessary" the inspection of cargoes to and from North
Korea to prevent illicit trafficking in nuclear, chemical and
biological weapons. But Indian officials said they were not acting at
the behest of the U.N. but simply because a suspicious ship had
entered Indian waters. "The investigations are part of standard
procedures that are followed when a ship strays into our waters," A.
Banerjee, a top shipping official told Reuters.

Indian officials said they wanted to ensure that the ship was not
hiding any contraband or being used to ferry material related to North
Korea or Iran's nuclear programs. Pyongyang said last month that it
had tested a nuclear device, while Iran says it is enriching its
uranium to build nuclear power plants, rejecting Western concerns that
it was planning to build a bomb. Military experts say Iranian missile
technology is partly based on modified versions of equipment from
other countries, such as North Korea.

10) Iran press gleeful but cautious after U.S. vote
Edmund Blair, Reuters, Thursday, November 9, 2006; 4:29 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/09/AR2006110900229.html
Iran's press wrote with glee on Thursday about the drubbing President
Bush's Republicans received in U.S. elections but predicted it would
only moderate, not radically change, U.S. foreign policy. One daily
said the victorious U.S. Democrats were traditionally close to Israel,
Iran's sworn enemy, a factor which might add to pressure on regional
countries.

The English-language Iran News wrote: "Most Americans have finally
caught up with the rest of the world in rebuking the irresponsible,
militaristic, arrogant, belligerent and entirely destabilizing
policies of the Bush administration." It cautioned, however, against
"expecting a sea change in American foreign policy."

The conservative daily Siyasat-e Rouz agreed. "Regarding Iran and
other opponents of America's policies around the world, there will be
tangible changes but because Republicans are still in power in the
White House, we cannot call it a major change in America's foreign
policy," it said.

Other commentators called the result a slap in the face for the Bush
administration's invasion and occupation of Iraq. Iran has called for
U.S. troops to leave. The US is pushing for a tough U.N. sanctions
resolution against Iran over its disputed atomic program, which Tehran
insists is aimed only at generating electricity. Washington has not
ruled out military action if diplomacy fails.

Some newspapers said Bush would now be too embroiled in infighting at
home to consider more military action abroad. "Bush's government will
be obliged to take more cautious steps and instead of creating war
around the world it will be obliged to fight politically with
Democrats," the hardline Kayhan newspaper wrote.

Newspapers did not touch directly on the nuclear dispute, but one
Iranian analyst, who asked not to be named, said Iran would probably
feel encouraged to press ahead with its plans. "I think it will make
Iranians more determined in what they are doing," he said.

Iraq
11) Iraq Lawmakers Extend State of Emergency
Associated Press, November 9, 2006, Filed at 9:21 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Iraq.html
Beset by rampant sectarian violence, Iraq's parliament voted Wednesday
to extend the country's state of emergency for 30 more days, as at
least 66 more Iraqis were killed or found dead. Wednesday's deaths
included those of eight soccer players and fans cut down by a pair of
mortar rounds that slammed onto a field in Baghdad's Sadr City
neighborhood.

The U.S. military, meanwhile, announced the deaths of a soldier and a
Marine, raising the number of American forces killed this month in
Iraq to 21 in the first eight days of November. Lawmakers present for
a closed-door meeting attended by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki voted
unanimously to extend the emergency measures, said legislators Ammar
Touama and Kamal al-Saidi.

The state of emergency has been renewed every month since it was first
authorized in November 2004. It allows for a nighttime curfew and
gives the government extra powers to make arrests without warrants and
launch police and military operations. The measures are implemented in
all areas of the country apart from the autonomous Kurdish region in
the north.

Mortars struck the Sadr City playing field just after 4:30 p.m. during
a game between young men from the sprawling Shiite slum that is home
to about 2.5 million people, said a captain with the local police
force, Mohammed Ismail. Twenty others were wounded in the attack,
which came after days of mortar barrages launched by rival Sunni and
Shiite groups on residential areas that have killed dozens in the
capital.

Lebanon
12) Christians Struggle to Preserve a Balance of Power
Michael Slackman, New York Times, November 9, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/09/world/middleeast/09lebanon.html
Lebanon is facing a political crisis that has two faces: the emerging
power of Lebanon's Shiite population, evident in Hezbollah's political
strength and press for power, and the Christians' feeling of isolation
and vulnerability. Lebanon's Christians, whatever their political
allegiance, are trying to hold on to their place and power in Lebanon
- shading a conflict over control of the government with political and
social dimensions that cut to the heart of Lebanese national identity.
Lebanon remains the most pluralistic society in a region monopolized
by the two main sects of Islam, Sunni and Shiite. In Lebanon there are
18 different confessional groups.

Carved out by the French as a haven for Christians, Lebanon has
struggled to avoid confronting the reality of demographics - that the
Christian population has shrunk, perhaps far more even than most here
will admit. The definitive way to determine who is a majority or a
minority - taking a census - is so taboo, no one has dared even raise
it. That is an undercurrent, if unstated, in the battle for control in
a state where Christians, Shiites and Sunnis are supposed to have
equal shares of power - even while everyone knows that the
constituencies are not equal in size, not even close.

The current balance was established in the Taif accord in 1989, at the
end of Lebanon's civil war. Under the treaty, Sunnis assumed the
dominant position while Christians preserved their influence and
power. But now the Taif era is widely regarded as over, with a handoff
from Sunni to Shiite control well under way, although some Christians
are still searching for a way to preserve the status quo.

Lebanon's political leaders are scheduled to meet on Thursday, when
they are expected to agree on a formula that would give Hezbollah and
its Christian ally, Gen. Michel Aoun, more say over decisions, but not
the veto power they desire. The discussion, however, is not expected
to venture into the consideration of a truly equitable distribution of
power.

Generally speaking, Sunnis insist they are equal in number to Shiites.
Shiites say they are a majority and Christians say they account for
more than 20 percent. At the same time, all sides have said the
state's convoluted election laws needed to be altered - but, for now,
without becoming so democratic as to undermine the distribution of
power. "A census will show the Christians are a clear minority," said
Hilal Khashan, a political science professor at American University in
Beirut. "Nobody wants to know they extent of their decline. Some think
they don't even make up 25 percent of the population."

Some Christian leaders argue that a census is unnecessary because the
state has an idea of the size of each constituency based on how many
people vote. Geagea said that in the last election about 35 percent of
the votes cast were by Christians. Amin Gemayel, leader of the small
Christian Phalange party, said a census was unnecessary because
Christians remained "geographically strong." What he meant was that
Christians, like Shiites, tend to be concentrated in specific
geographic areas, which is helpful when voting in local elections for
members of Parliament. Sunnis, on the other hand, he said, are not as
powerful because they are more spread out.

Under the current system, each district must elect a set number of
Christian, Shiite, Sunni or Druse representatives. But because the
constituencies are large and mixed, he said, Christians feel that
their Christian representatives are often more loyal to the larger
number of Muslims in the district.

Still, not all the Christian leaders are united in strategy. General
Aoun, the former anti-Syrian commander and the leader of the Free
Patriotic Movement, has relied on an alliance with the pro-Syrian,
pro-Iranian Hezbollah. That relationship may work for his ambition to
become president - under the Taif accord, the president must be a
Christian. But it is not clear at all that his followers, once
considered to be the largest bloc of Christians in Lebanon, are
comfortable with the arrangement.

Palestine
13) Israeli Shelling Kills 18 Gazans; Anger Boils Up
Ian Fisher & Steven Erlanger, New York Times, November 9, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/09/world/middleeast/09mideast.html
Israeli tank shells killed 18 Palestinians, including 8 children and 6
women, at a cluster of houses here on Wednesday, one of the largest
single losses of life in Gaza in years. Some Hamas leaders called for
a suicide-bombing retaliation inside Israel and, unusually, for the US
to be taught "hard lessons" as well. "Nothing happened," mumbled Isra
Athamnah, 5 years old, who was pocked with shrapnel and in shock. The
news that her widowed mother, Sanaa, 35, was dead and that she was now
an orphan did not sink in.

Others described how a tank shell had hit a home here in northern
Gaza, sending members of the extended Athamnah family outside before
dawn. The next volleys struck them as they crowded in a narrow alley
between the houses. The dead ranged from less than a year old to 70
years old, witnesses said.

Israeli leaders expressed regret. They have been on the defensive over
their performance in the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the more
than 300 Palestinians killed in operations in Gaza since the summer.
Defense Minister Amir Peretz ordered a halt to artillery attacks in
the densely populated Gaza Strip, which are intended to prevent
Palestinians from launching rockets into nearby Israeli cities, and an
immediate investigation. Initial findings suggested a misfire, the
commander of the south, Gen. Yoav Galant, told Israel's Channel 2
television.

After largely observing a unilateral truce that it declared a year and
a half ago, Hamas called for renewed suicide bombings. Khaled Meshal,
the leader of Hamas's political bureau exiled in Syria, said Hamas
would answer the deaths with "deeds, not words."

Hamas's military wing also said in a statement that the US should be
taught "hard lessons" for supporting Israel. The threat, though vague,
was an unusual escalation for Hamas, an Islamic-based militant group
that has pointedly portrayed its fight as being against Israel alone.
It was immediately disavowed by Ghazi Hamad, the spokesman for the
Hamas-led Palestinian government in Gaza.

Afghanistan
14) Afghans Losing Faith In Nation's Path, Poll Shows
Carlotta Gall, New York Times, November 9, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/09/world/asia/09afghan.html
Afghans have lost a considerable amount of confidence in the direction
of their country over the past two years, according to an extensive
nationwide survey released Wednesday. While the national mood remains
positive on the whole, the number of people with negative or mixed
views on the trajectory of the country has grown significantly since a
similar survey in 2004, according to the Asia Foundation, which
conducted both surveys. "The number of Afghans who feel optimistic is
lower than on the eve of the 2004 presidential elections," the survey
found.

It was the largest opinion survey conducted in Afghanistan. In it, 44
percent of Afghans interviewed said the country was headed in the
right direction, compared with 64 percent in 2004 on the eve of the
first democratic presidential elections in Afghanistan. Twenty-one
percent said the country was headed in the wrong direction - compared
with 11 percent in 2004 - and 29 percent had mixed feelings. Four
percent were unsure. Security was the main reason for the increased
concern, the survey said.

Financed by the US Agency for International Development, the survey
was conducted by the Asia Foundation, a nonprofit organization based
in San Francisco, and by local partners, who interviewed more than
6,000 people from June through August this year in rural and urban
areas of all but two of Afghanistan's provinces. The main goal of the
survey was to determine the attitudes of Afghans toward the political
process, public policy and development progress.

Venezuela
15) Venezuela Groups Get U.S. Aid Amid Meddling Charges
Simon Romero, New York Times, November 9, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/09/world/americas/09venezuela.html
Since President Hugo Chávez returned to power after a brief coup in
2002, the US has channeled millions of dollars to Venezuelan
organizations, many of them critical of his government. This aid has
become a key issue in the presidential election next month amid claims
of American interference in the domestic political system.

"Washington thinks it can buy regime change in Venezuela," said Carlos
Escarrá, a leading legislator in the National Assembly who has been
pushing for tighter regulation over the American financing of
Venezuelan groups. He echoed recent comments from other high-ranking
officials and from Chávez, who has a double-digit lead in most polls
over his main opponent, Manuel Rosales. Chávez rarely refers in public
to Rosales by name, instead framing his campaign as a choice between
his government and the Bush administration.

American diplomats here have remained largely quiet in commenting on
the election, which is scheduled for Dec. 3, in contrast to the active
role American officials played in Nicaragua before the election of
Daniel Ortega. Government officials here exploit any example of
American efforts to counter Chávez's influence as evidence of what
they see as a looming confrontation with Washington. Vice President
José Vicente Rangel has organized an event this week to publicize the
release of "Bush vs. Chávez: Washington's War Against Venezuela," a
book by Eva Golinger, an American lawyer who has become famous in
Venezuela for detailing the American financing of groups here.

USAID has distributed about $25 million to various Venezuelan
organizations over the last five years, according to officials
involved in the projects. The funds have been channeled to the
Venezuelan groups through private and public entities from the US that
have opened offices in Caracas. These include Development Alternatives
Inc., a company that works closely with the State Department in
dispersing funds around the world, and the International Republican
Institute and the National Democratic Institute for International
Affairs, two Washington groups that have carried out training for
emerging political leaders in Venezuela.

Documents obtained from the US government under the Freedom of
Information Act point to numerous grants made by the US in the past
two years to groups whose activities are viewed as critical of
Chávez's government. The international development agency withheld the
names of many of the grant recipients, saying that the disclosure of
their identities could put them at risk of political retaliation. All
of the grants were channeled through Development Alternatives, which
worked on behalf of the Office of Transition Initiatives, a branch of
the international development agency that started operating in
Venezuela after the April 2002 coup.
O.T.I. normally finances activities in strife-torn countries like
Liberia, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Its only operations in Latin America are
in Venezuela and Bolivia, two countries that have developed an
alliance based in part on shared distrust of the US. Chávez has
repeatedly lashed out at the US government's activities, mixing his
attacks with unsubstantiated claims that the Bush administration is
financing covert intelligence operations aimed at strengthening his
opponent's campaign. This criticism has played well among the
president's political base, where anti-American sentiment has
flourished since Chávez was briefly removed from power in a coup in
2002 with the Bush administration's tacit approval.

Some grants were directed at organizations whose stated objectives
seemed to look for potential weaknesses in Chávez's administration.
One $33,304 grant in March 2005 was called "Land Redistribution Dos
and Don'ts," and required its unidentified recipient to investigate
agricultural policies in areas where the federal government had been
carrying out land expropriations. Other grants had what appeared to be
an objective of building support for potential rivals to Chávez. A
$47,459 grant, for instance, was made in July 2005 to an organization
whose goal was to meet with organizations to build a "democratic
leadership campaign."

The agency's grants in Venezuela have raised concern among some
political analysts who see parallels in efforts by Washington to
destabilize the socialist government of Salvador Allende in Chile in
the early 1970s or attempts to influence the domestic political system
of Nicaragua in the 1980s. "I wouldn't feel comfortable with the
Chinese government doing something like this in the U.S.," said Jeremy
Bigwood, an international policy analyst at the Center for Economic
Policy and Research in Washington. Bigwood filed a pending lawsuit
against the agency for international development this year asking that
it name its recipients. He said not doing so changed it from a
"civilian to a clandestine service."

Meanwhile, a backlash to the American financing has been building.
Prosecutors filed conspiracy charges against leaders of Súmate, a
voter education group, after it received $31,000 from the National
Endowment for Democracy, another entity backed by the US government
that distributes money to groups in Venezuela. A proposed law is also
making its way through the National Assembly that would regulate
international financing of nongovernmental organizations. The bill,
which has been criticized by anticorruption groups like Transparency
International, has been held up until after the election.

Cyprus
16) Turks' Bid to Join Europe Stalls on Cyprus and Rights, Official Warns
Dan Bilefsky & James Kanter, New York Times, November 9, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/09/world/europe/09turkey.html
The governing commission of the EU Wednesday issued its strongest
warning yet to Turkey to open its ports to Cyprus and make more
progress on human rights or face a possible suspension of talks over
allowing the country to join the organization. Speaking after the
release of a report highly critical of Turkey's efforts to make
changes requested by the EU, Olli Rehn, the union's expansion
commissioner, delivered what appeared to be an ultimatum to Turkey:
soften the intransigence over Cyprus or risk the collapse of the EU
bid.

Turkey has refused to meet an end-of-year deadline set by the EU to
open its ports and airports to the Greek-speaking part of Cyprus,
which belongs to the organization. Turkey insists it will not
compromise on Cyprus unless the EU lifts a trade embargo against the
northern Turkish side of Cyprus. The report, which also highlighted
shortcomings on issues like minority rights and freedom of speech, did
not call for an immediate halt in the talks with Turkey. But EU
officials said the harsh tone of the report made it increasingly
likely that a summit meeting of EU leaders in mid-December would at
least consider a partial suspension of the negotiations.

The Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, sought to play down
the criticism. "For us, the E.U. process maintains its importance," he
said. "Our aim is to achieve the maximum possible. Our struggle will
continue." A poll published Tuesday by the International Strategic
Research Organization showed that two-thirds of Turks would rather
suspend membership talks with the EU than give ground over Cyprus. "If
the E.U. fulfills its promise to end the isolation of Northern Cyprus,
then we will open our ports," said Egemen Bagis, a senior adviser to
Erdogan and a member of the governing Justice and Development Party.
"If European leaders want reforms to continue in Turkey, if they want
their safety to be assured in an unstable region, if they want to
assure an alternative energy supply, then they should show us some
encouragement," he said.

The report also rebuked Turkey for its failure to meet minimum
standards on human rights and cited concerns over the rights of women,
Kurds and religious minorities.

-
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org

Just Foreign Policy is a membership organization devoted to reforming
U.S. foreign policy so it reflects the values and interests of the
majority of Americans.