[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, October 2, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy News
October 2, 2006

Summary:
U.S.
The Senate, with no debate Saturday, passed and sent to the president
legislation that would impose new sanctions on Iran and countries that
trade with Iran.

As the top Democrat on the House military spending subcommittee, John
Murtha delivers Democratic votes to Republican leaders in exchange for
earmarks for himself and his allies, the New York Times reports.
Murtha has helped Republicans round up Democratic votes to block
proposals to investigate federal contracting fraud in Iraq, to add
$150 million for veterans' health care and job training, and to divert
money intended to be spent on base closings to research prosthetic
limbs for veterans.

The Bush administration is so attached to torturing people because
torture is what provides evidence for large important networks of
terrorists where there aren't really any, or aren't very many, or
aren't enough to justify 800 military bases and a $500 billion
military budget, writes Juan Cole
.
Congress Friday moved to block the Bush administration from building
permanent U.S. military bases in Iraq or controlling the country's oil
sector, as it approved $70 billion for the wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan.

Iran
The San Francisco Chroncle reports on preparations by the U.S. to
attack Iran. In a podcast interview, Abbas Milani, director of Iranian
studies at Stanford, argues that, far from weakening the Iranian
regime, air strikes probably would strengthen its hand because the
Iranian people would rally around the flag.

Iraq
Iraq's government showed further signs of strain Sunday, as Shiite
political leaders expressed growing frustration at having to share
power with Sunni Arabs whom they view as having ties to insurgents.
The complaints came after the disclosure on Friday that a guard
working for a leading Sunni politician might have been involved in a
plot to detonate multiple car bombs in the Green Zone.

Palestine
Steven Erlanger reports for the New York Times that efforts to form a
Palestinian unity government have been more slogan than reality. As in
a previous report, he obscures the fact that some of the "aid" being
withheld from the Palestinians is in fact Palestinian tax revenues
which the Israeli government is legally required to hand over to the
Palestinian Authority.

Hamas and Fatah gunmen fought running battles in Gaza on Sunday, as
Hamas forces tried to disrupt Fatah-organized protests over unpaid
government salaries. Six Palestinians were killed and more than 100
were wounded.

Bahrain
A former government adviser has set off a firestorm with a report
describing a vast conspiracy to rig the elections, manipulate the
country's sectarian balance and ensure Sunni domination over the
country's majority Shiites. The report suggests that unusual business
dealings were occurring between government officials that may have
amounted to an effort to set off ethnic conflict.

Brazil
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finished first in the presidential vote held
Sunday, but fell short of the majority he needed to avoid a runoff on
Oct. 29.

Nicaragua
Daniel Ortega is once again smiling down from campaign billboards
across Nicaragua. Now 60, he stands his best chance yet of returning
to power in elections on Nov. 5, the New York Times reports.
Washington has sent word that aid will be re-evaluated if Ortega is
elected.

Contents:
U.S.
1) Senate Passes Iran Sanctions Bill
Jim Abrams, Associated Press, Saturday, September 30, 2006; 2:12 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/30/AR2006093000163.html
The Senate, with no debate Saturday, passed and sent to the president
legislation that would impose mandatory sanctions on entities that
provide goods or services for Iran's weapons programs. The Senate
action came two days after the House approved the measure following a
debate over the wisdom of toughening unilateral sanctions at the same
time the US was trying to work with its U.N. partners on a
multinational approach to Iran's nuclear threat. Both chambers
approved the measure, which sanctions any entity that contributes to
Iran's ability to acquire chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, by
voice vote.

Senator Frist, said the action would encourage the administration to
use all available leverage over Russia, a partner in Iranian energy
projects, to gain Russian support for multilateral sanctions against
Iran. But in the House Thursday, Rep. Leach said that "unilateral
sanctions don't work and there is no evidence that the other principle
parties that are dealing with Iran will follow this example." The
measure codifies existing economic sanctions against Iran. It also
approves assistance for human rights, pro-democracy and independent
organizations and states that the US should not enter into agreements
with governments that are assisting Iran's nuclear program or
transferring weapons or missiles to Iran.

The House passed a similar Iran sanctions bill last April, but that
measure met opposition from the administration, which said it reduced
the flexibility it needed to reach a diplomatic solution to Iran's
uranium enrichment program and the threat that it was developing
nuclear weapons. That proposal was defeated in the Senate. The revised
version takes out one section that would have cut off aid to
countries, such as Russia, investing in projects in Iran that could be
linked to weapons proliferation.

2) Trading Votes for Pork Across the House Aisle
David D. Kirkpatrick, New York Times, October 2, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/02/washington/02murtha.html
For more than a decade, Representative Murtha has operated a political
trading post in a corner of the House of Representatives. About two
dozen Democrats mill around his seat. Others walk back to request pet
spending projects, known as earmarks. Republicans come by, asking him
to enlist some of those Democrats to join them on close votes.
"Whether they get what they want in the bill or they get the votes
they are looking for, nobody ever leaves completely disappointed,"
said Rep. Kanjorski, often found in the Murtha corner.

Outside Washington, Murtha may be known for his break with the
president over the Iraq war. But inside the Capitol, he is best known
for turning earmarks into power. As the top Democrat on the House
military spending subcommittee, he often delivers Democratic votes to
Republican leaders in exchange for earmarks for himself and his
allies.

In the last year, Murtha has helped Republicans round up enough
Democratic votes to narrowly block a host of Democratic proposals: to
investigate federal contracting fraud in Iraq, to reform lobbying
laws, to increase financing for flood control, to add $150 million for
veterans' health care and job training, and to exempt middle-class
families from the alternative minimum tax. In one case that irked
Democratic partisans, Murtha led three others in voting against a
Louisiana Democrat's proposal to divert money intended to be spent on
base closings to research prosthetic limbs for veterans. It failed by
one vote.

For their "nays" on that and other matters, all four Democrats were
rewarded. In the weeks after the vote, they claimed credit for a total
of more than $250 million in earmarks in the 2006 appropriations
bills. Murtha alone brought home about $80 million for his district
and $120 million for his state, according to Taxpayers for Common
Sense.

3) Craig Murray on Manufacturing Terror
Juan Cole, Informed Comment, Sunday, October 01, 2006
http://www.juancole.com/2006/10/craig-murray-on-manufacturing-terror.html
Why is the Bush administration so attached to torturing people that it
would pressure a supine Congress into raping the US constitution by
explicitly permitting some torture techniques and abolishing habeas
corpus for certain categories of prisoners? Boys and girls, it is
because torture is what provides evidence for large important networks
of terrorists where there aren't really any, or aren't very many, or
aren't enough to justify 800 military bases and a $500 billion
military budget.

Craig Murray, former UK ambassador to Uzbekistan, explained what is
really behind the new "lily pad" doctrine of US bases, whereby the US
is seeking to encompass the "Greater Middle East" with small bases
Murray said that the US documents are quite open as to why they are
seeking the network of lily pad bases around the Middle East. It is
because that is where the oil and gas are. If you include the Caspian
region, Tengiz, and the gas reserves in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan
along with what is in the Persian Gulf, the vast majority of proven
oil and gas reserves are in this circle of crisis.

I understand Murray to argue that the Bush administration hyped the
al-Qaeda threat in order to have a pretext for the lily pad strategy
of oil security. Murray did not say so, but this strategy would then
logically underlie the conquest and military occupation of Afghanistan
and Iraq. Murray's exhibit number 1 is Uzbekistan, which has major gas
reserves. The US received basing rights there. The US supported the
government of Islam Karimov, the Soviet apparatchik who turned himself
into a post-Soviet dictator. The US and UK maintained that Uzbekistan
was making progress toward democracy. They praised Uzbek elections as
a sign of such progress, even though Karimov did not allow the
opposition to run in the elections.

Murray began receiving photographs and other evidence from victims'
families that the Uzbek government was engaging in brutal torture
techniques as part of its interrogation of dissidents. Yet the UK and
the US were giving large amounts of foreign aid to Uzbekistan and
winking at the political repression and torture. Murray as UK
ambassador began seeing CIA reports naming known al-Qaeda operatives
who were prominent in Uzbekistan. But these turned out to be just run
of the mill Uzbek politicians who were on the outs with Karimov. Where
did the CIA get this information about high-level terrorists in
Uzbekistan? From Karimov's secret police. And where did they get their
phony "intelligence"? From torturing dissidents and making them admit
to being al-Qaeda and implicating others as al-Qaeda.

Uzbeks have a Muslim heritage. They have Muslim names. But Uzbekistan
is a country full of atheists and secularists. It is more secular than
France. Everyone drinks vodka like fish. Almost no one could actually
tell you how to pray the five daily prayers. There are a few. They are
considered odd by the other Uzbeks.

The government of Islam Karimov is aware that the West is afraid of
Islam. So they scare the Americans and Europeans with tall tales about
an Islamist menace in Uzbekistan, which attract support to the Uzbek
government and also cause the Westerners to make excuses for a degree
of political repression that approaches that characteristic of Saddam
Hussein in the old days.

There is an academic industry in the US of alleging radical Muslim
fundamentalism is a big problem in Uzbekistan. It is bunkum. In a poll
done in 2002 by Pew, 91 percent of Uzbeks agreed with Bush's War on
Terror and the way it was being waged! You couldn't have found those
numbers anyplace else in the world, maybe even in the US! Murray
pointed out that if you had a referendum in Uzbekistan on whether
Islamic canon law should be the law of the land, and explained that it
would result in a ban on vodka, less than 1 percent of the population
would vote for it.

4) U.S. Congress restricts Bush on Iraq spending
Vicki Allen, Reuters, Fri 29 Sep 2006 7:11 PM ET
http://today.reuters.com/News/CrisesArticle.aspx?storyId=N29278143
Congress Friday moved to block the Bush administration from building
permanent U.S. military bases in Iraq or controlling the country's oil
sector, as it approved $70 billion for the wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan. The restrictions included in a record $447 billion
military funding bill were a slap at the administration, and
Republicans have stripped them out of legislation in the past.
Democrats and many Republicans say the Iraqi insurgency has been
fueled by perceptions the US has ambitions for a permanent presence in
the country. The administration has downplayed prospects for permanent
military bases in Iraq, but lawmakers have called on Bush to make a
definitive statement that the US has no such plans. [For more on this
strategy, see http://www.fcnl.org/iraq/index.htm - JFP]

Iran
5) How An Attack Would Unfold
A military assault on nuclear plants in Iran remains an option for U.S.
Matthew B. Stannard, San Francisco Chronicle, Sunday, October 1, 2006
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/10/01/ING9ULB4N11.DTL
The Bush administration is constantly reiterating its desire for a
diplomatic solution to the crisis over Iran's nuclear program. But the
administration emphasizes that nothing is "off the table," including
military action. "The evidence is overwhelming that plans have not
only been dusted off, but they are at the White House," said Sam
Gardiner, a retired Air Force colonel. "The president believes that he
has got to do this."

Other analysts are far more guarded. "Only the president and a small
number of his intelligence advisors can know at this point," said
Michael Eisenstadt, of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
"I think this could go both ways."

6) Should the U.S. attack Iran?
San Francicso Chronicle podcast interview with Abbas Milani, September 29 2006
http://cdn.sfgate.com/blogs/sounds/sfgate/chroncast/2006/09/29/Insight-20060929.mp3
Insight Editor Jim Finefrock talks with Abbas Milani, director of
Iranian studies at Stanford University, about the repercussions of a
U.S. air assault on Iran's nuclear facilities. Milani argues that, far
from weakening the Iranian ruling regime, it probably would strengthen
its hand because the Iranian people likely would rally around the
flag.

A more profitable path for the US, if it wishes to halt the Iranian
nuclear program before it can produce a bomb, is to foster democracy
in Iran, Milani says. That's a long, slow process, but it's preferable
to turning the Iranian people into enemies of America, and it's better
than unleashing the Iranian government to cause even more mischief in
the Mideast and around the world, which, Milani says, would be the
first response to a U.S. attack on Iran.

Iraq
7) Shiite Politicians Grow More Critical of Iraq's Government
Sabrina Tavernise, New York Times, October 2, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/02/world/middleeast/02iraq.html
Iraq's government showed further signs of strain Sunday, as Shiite
political leaders expressed growing frustration at having to share
power with Sunni Arabs whom they view as having ties to insurgents.
"There is a real trust crisis," said Baha al-Aaraji, a prominent
Shiite legislator. The remarks, which included a call for a cabinet
shuffle, came after the disclosure on Friday that a guard working for
a leading Sunni politician might have been involved in a plot to
detonate multiple car bombs in the Green Zone. But they quickly led to
a larger debate, with Sunni and Shiite factions accusing one another
of protecting their militias and governing to suit their own sects.

The outburst underscored the weakness of Iraq's government. A
patchwork of parties and groups that represents most of Iraq's
ethnicities and sects, the government was assembled through weeks of
bitter negotiations brokered by the Americans this spring. At the
time, the thinking was to include all of Iraq's groups, particularly
the minority Sunni Arabs who dominated the government of Saddam
Hussein, in order to drain support for the insurgency. But now, five
months after the government was formed, the violence has only
worsened, with death squads carrying out sectarian killings that are
changing the texture of neighborhoods.

8) Sadr Political Bloc Calls for Overhaul of Iraqi Cabinet
Amit R. Paley & K.I. Ibrahim, Washington Post, Monday, October 2, 2006; A16
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/01/AR2006100100914.html
The political bloc of anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr demanded a
shake-up of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's cabinet Sunday "Some of
those who are in this government have direct or indirect relationships
with terrorists," said Bahaa al-Araji, a senior legislator with Sadr's
Shiite Muslim party. "The democracy that the occupation brought to
Iraq is being exploited by the Sunni insurgents and the terrorists to
kill our sons and our men." Araji's remarks appeared aimed at Adnan
al-Dulaimi, the leader of the largest Sunni Arab coalition in
parliament, whose bodyguard was arrested Friday on suspicion of
planning suicide bombings inside the fortified Green Zone. Dulaimi has
denied that his bodyguard is connected to terrorists, and on Sunday
other Sunni legislators denounced Araji for making "hysterical
statements."

"They accuse the Sunnis of being insurgents, Baathists and Saddamists,
but if we check the records of the majority of those politicians, we
will find that they have ties to the former regime," said Hussein
al-Falluji, a Sunni member of parliament. Falluji also suggested that
tensions within the Shiite government -- over Maliki's efforts,
unsuccessful so far, to disarm militias controlled by Sadr and other
Shiite groups -- are causing politicians to lash out at Sunnis. "They
are trying to transfer their problems to us," he said.

Palestine
9) Presto, Palestinians, You Are All One
Steven Erlanger, New York Times, October 1, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/01/weekinreview/01erlanger.html
More than two weeks ago, the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas,
announced he had reached agreement with the radical Islamic group
Hamas on the political platform for such a government as a way to
induce the West to resume financial aid to the desperate Palestinians.
The idea was immediately endorsed by the EU. But the Europeans were
embracing a chimera - praising a new government that didn't yet exist.
Hamas repudiated the political program almost as soon as Abbas
announced it.

The major obstacle is that any new government would represent a defeat
for Hamas - an admission that it cannot govern alone, with no
ideological modifications. That is apparently too big a concession for
its political director, Khaled Meshal, who lives in Damascus. For
Hamas leaders in the territories, like Prime Minister Haniya, a unity
government could be an exit from a terrible problem. Hamas, considered
a terrorist group by the United States and European Union, has proven
unable to circumvent the Israeli and American determination to force
it to change by denying it recognition and money.

But even a unity government would not automatically mean a restoration
of financing. The Israelis and Americans make three demands: that
Hamas recognize the right of Israel to exist; that it forswear
violence; and that it accept all previous Israeli-Palestinian
agreements. [Again the NYT in its reporting obscures the fact that
some of the money being withheld is not "aid" but Palestinian tax
revenues which legally belong to the Palestinian Authority but are
being unilaterally withheld by the Israeli government in violation of
its agreement with the PA. The same mistake appeared in a September 19
NYT article by Steven Erlanger. -JFP]

10) Fatal Clashes in Gaza Over Unpaid Salaries
Steven Erlanger, New York Times, October 2, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/02/world/middleeast/02mideast.html
Hamas and Fatah gunmen fought running battles in Gaza on Sunday, as
Hamas forces tried to disrupt Fatah-organized protests over unpaid
government salaries. Six Palestinians were killed and more than 100
were wounded. The clashes were among the most severe between the
Palestinian factions since Hamas won power in legislative elections in
January.

After President Mahmoud Abbas, who was traveling abroad, ordered a
halt to the demonstrations by members of his Fatah faction, angry
protesters turned their rage toward a government building in Ramallah,
on the West Bank. Some offices in the Ramallah cabinet building, which
is empty because many of the Hamas cabinet members in the West Bank
have been arrested by the Israelis, were set on fire after protesters
marched through the city shouting, "Hamas out!"

Bahrain
11) Report Cites Bid by Sunnis in Bahrain to Rig Elections
Hassan M. Fattah, New York Times, October 2, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/02/world/middleeast/02bahrain.html
Just months before Bahrain is to hold parliamentary and municipal
elections, a former government adviser has set off a political
firestorm with a report describing what he says is a vast conspiracy
to rig the elections, manipulate the country's sectarian balance and
ensure Sunni domination over the country's majority Shiites. The
scandal, which is being called "Bandargate" after the author of the
report, Salah al-Bandar, reaches to the core of this tiny island
kingdom's simmering tensions.

The report includes hundreds of pages of supporting material,
apparently authentic, including canceled checks, hotel bills,
accounting sheets and notes. The material suggests that at the very
least, unusual business dealings were occurring between government
officials, Bandar says, and that it may have amounted to an effort to
set off ethnic conflict.

Brazil
12) Embattled Brazil Incumbent Fails to Win First-Round Ballot
Larry Rohter, New York Times, October 2, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/02/world/americas/02brazil.html
Brazil's embattled president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, finished
first in the presidential vote held here Sunday, but fell just short
of the majority he needed to avoid a runoff on Oct. 29. With more than
99.2 percent of the ballots tabulated early Monday, Mr. da Silva, his
momentum checked by a last-minute corruption and ethics scandal, had
48.65 percent of the vote. The most competitive of his seven
opponents, Geraldo Alckmin of the Brazilian Social Democratic Party,
was running closer than had been expected, with 41.6 percent of the
vote.

Nicaragua
13) Ex-Firebrand Ortega on the Comeback Trail
Marc Lacey, New York Times, September 30, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/30/world/americas/30nicaragua.html
After three failed attempts to return to power in the last 15 years,
Daniel Ortega is once again smiling down from campaign billboards
across Nicaragua. Now 60, he stands his best chance yet of returning
to power in elections on Nov. 5. Though opinion polls give Ortega
about 30 percent support, he is the front-runner in a race splintered
among five candidates. The prospect has stirred deep anxiety in the
Bush administration, which envisions him as a new ally for President
Chávez in challenging US policy. Chávez has lent his support to
Ortega, while Washington has sent word in no uncertain terms that aid
will be re-evaluated if Ortega is elected.

The latest in a string of visitors to Managua was Representative Dan
Burton of Indiana, chairman of the House subcommittee on Western
Hemisphere affairs. While insisting that he was not telling
Nicaraguans how to vote, he made it clear to local reporters that he
opposed Ortega and that relations between Nicaragua and the US would
suffer should he win.

 --------
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org

Just Foreign Policy is a membership organization devoted to reforming
U.S. foreign policy so that it reflects the values and interests of
the majority of Americans.