[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, October 17, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy News
October 17, 2006

No War with Iran: Petition
More than 2300 have signed through Just Foreign Policy's website.
Please sign and circulate if you have not done so:
http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/involved/iranpetition.html

Just Foreign Policy News daily podcast:
Take a summary of today's foreign news with you.
http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/podcasts/podcast_howto.html

Summary:
U.S./Top News
Juan Cole, interviewed on the Lehrer news hour, called for a phased
withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq. This is significant because he
had previously opposed such a move on the grounds that it would expose
the civilian population to unrestrained sectarian blood-letting. By
his own account (www.juancole.com), the failure of the U.S. to
intervene to stop the recent massacres in Balad was the last straw.

The Los Angeles Times reports on the expected recommendations of the
Iraq Study Group. The two options under consideration both involve
policies the Bush Administration has previously ruled out: phased
withdrawal of U.S. troops and engagement with Syria and Iran.

Following an explosion of sectarian violence over the weekend that
left dozens dead in Balad, some residents asked why American troops
had not intervened when the killings began in earnest on Saturday, the
New York Times reports. One of the largest American military bases in
Iraq, Camp Anaconda, is nearby.

American intelligence agencies have concluded that North Korea's test
explosion last week was powered by plutonium that North Korea
harvested from its small nuclear reactor, the New York Times reports.
Nuclear experts said that the use of plutonium to make the bomb was
important because it suggested that North Korea probably had only one
nuclear program mature enough to produce weapons.

Iran
The EU backed limited UN sanctions against Iran's nuclear program on
Tuesday, Reuters reports. The EU's foreign ministers called for
incremental measures targeted first at individuals and materials
involved in Iranian uranium enrichment activities. Spanish Secretary
of State for European Affairs Alberto Navarro said sanctions would be
gradual because Europe, unlike the US, needed Iran as an oil supplier.
Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies
noted that while North Korea openly affirmed its nuclear weapons
intentions, Iran insisted its program was peaceful. There was no
conclusive proof that Iran sought an atom bomb, he said.

Russia demanded Monday the US lift sanctions against two Russian
companies accused of making deals with Iran involving sensitive
technology and suggested a U.S. refusal could affect negotiations on a
U.N. sanctions resolution against Iran, AP reports.  If Russia is
asked to vote on a Security Council resolution imposing sanctions on
Iran for refusing to suspend uranium enrichment at the same time that
Russian companies are subject to U.S. sanctions, it would be voting on
a measure "which at least by implication supports sanctions which have
already been imposed on us," he said.

Iraq
Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki told President Bush Monday that U.S.
officials have been undermining his government, and sought reassurance
that the administration was not preparing to abandon him, the Los
Angeles Times reports. Maliki said he was concerned that U.S.
officials had openly suggested imposing a two-month deadline for him
to gain control of militias and quell sectarian violence, said White
House Press Secretary Tony Snow.

Under Saddam Hussein, Iraq's million or so Christians for the most
part coexisted peacefully with Muslims, the New York Times reports.
But since Hussein's ouster, their status here has become increasingly
uncertain. Over the past three and a half years, Christians have been
subjected to a steady stream of church bombings, assassinations,
kidnappings and threatening letters slipped under their doors.
Estimates of the resulting Christian exodus vary from the tens of
thousands to more than 100,000, with most heading for Syria, Jordan
and Turkey.

Families fled in search of safety Monday as open warfare raged for a
fourth day between Shiite militias and armed Sunnis in towns north of
Baghdad, the Washington Post reports. Militias allied with Iraq's
Shiite-led government held sway in Balad, forcing out Sunni families,
according to police, residents and hospital officials. Local police
officers accused Shiite-dominated government police forces of working
alongside Shiite militias in executing Sunnis and appealed for more
help.

Israel
Prime Minister Olmert told the Israeli Parliament Monday that he was
willing to meet the leaders of Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority
in an effort to ease regional tensions, the New York Times reports.
"I want to take this opportunity to call on Lebanese Prime Minister
Fouad Siniora to meet with me face to face," Olmert said. Siniora's
office issued a statement saying that he had "announced more than once
that Lebanon will be the last Arab country to sign a peace deal with
Israel." Olmert made no mention of his plan to withdraw from some
Jewish settlements in the West Bank. His failure to mention the West
Bank withdrawal plan appeared to confirm the widespread belief that it
was on hold indefinitely.

Lebanon
Commanders of the French contingent of the UN force in Lebanon have
warned that they might have to open fire if Israel Air Force warplanes
continue their overflights in Lebanon, Defense Minister Peretz said,
according to Haaretz.

Palestine
A senior figure in Hamas published an article Tuesday condemning
internal Palestinian violence and questioning whether it had become a
"Palestinian disease," Reuters reports.

Hamas accused the US of fomenting internal strife among Palestinians
as new details emerged of a campaign to funnel millions of dollars in
funds to its opponents and provide weapons and military training for
rival forces, the Observer reported Sunday.

Colombia
Colombia's government and the Bush administration are hailing the
demobilization of 32,000 fighters from right-wing paramilitary groups,
reports Juan Forero for the Washington Post. But a more critical
picture has emerged from the accounts of rights groups, victims of
Colombia's conflict, and a report from the Attorney General's office.
Paramilitary commanders, according to these accounts, have killed
hundreds of people in violation of a cease-fire, trafficked cocaine
and stolen millions of dollars from state institutions they had
infiltrated.

Ecuador
Rafael Correa, who garnered a weak showing Sunday in the first round
of voting for president, finds himself in a situation that has plagued
leftists in other Latin American elections this year: defending his
ties to President Chávez of Venezuela, the New York Times reports. The
article says that Álvaro Noboa, surged ahead by attacking Correa's
advocacy of nationalistic economic proposals that seemed inspired by
Chávez's policies. It's not clear why Correa's proposals should be
described this way by the Times. An article yesterday by Juan Forero
in the Washington Post described Correa as inspired by the economists
John Maynard Keynes and Joseph Stiglitz, both of whom advocated
stronger government intervention in managing the economy than the Bush
Administration and the Washington-based international financial
institutions have prescribed for Latin America.

Microcredit
Walden Bello, commenting in the Nation on the awarding of the Nobel
Peace Prize to Muhammad Yunus, cautions against the religious belief
that microcredit finance will bring development in poor countries.
Microcredit is a great tool as a survival strategy, he writes, but it
is not the key to development, which involves not only massive
capital-intensive, state-directed investments to build industries but
also an assault on the structures of inequality such as concentrated
land ownership that systematically deprive the poor of resources to
escape poverty.

Contents:
U.S./Top News
1) As Violence Escalates, President Bush Assures Iraq of U.S. Support
Interview with Juan Cole, Lehrer NewsHour, October 16, 2006
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/july-dec06/security_10-16.html
Juan Cole: The Shiite majority in parliament ran through a proposal
for provincial confederacies that was opposed by the Sunni Arabs and
by some of the Shiites, and it was opposed by the prime minister. And
they held the vote for it while the Sunni Arabs were boycotting the
session. The Sunni Arabs have been absolutely promised that they would
have a voice in these matters. And they were denied that voice by the
parliamentary majority of Shiites.

And these attacks that occurred in Balad were daylight attacks by
company-sized units just shooting down over 70 people. Where were the
police? Where was the army? Were they collaborating? Were they afraid?
Maliki doesn't seem to have the levers to control these things…

The Shiites and the Kurds are clearly cocky. They blew off the Sunni
Arabs. They said, "We don't care about your feelings. We don't care
what you think. We're going to ram this thing through." Why could they
do that? Because the Marines have Ramadi under control for them. The
U.S. military is being used by the Shiites and the Kurds as their
trump card to keep the Sunnis down. And as long as they're cocky like
that, as long as they don't feel they have to compromise, then there's
not going to be any way forward…
We've had five, six months of this government. Nothing positive has
been accomplished by it. Security is collapsing in the South now in
Diwaniya and Basra, which have been quiet before. I think that this
government needs to have its mind concentrated. And I think that we
should start a phased withdrawal of U.S. troops as a way of letting
them know that they have to get their act together.
They're going to be living in that region, whether it's inside Iraq or
in a partition state, with those forces that they're contending with,
with the Sunni Arabs, the Shiites, the Kurds. They're all going to be
there, and they're not going any place. They have to learn to
compromise with each other; the big political leaders have not learned
to do that. Last week, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the leader of the Shiite
coalition party in parliament, the majority coalition, dismissed the
Sunni Arabs as a bunch of dusted-off Baathists and Salafi
fundamentalists.

Jim Lehrer: And your position is, as long as the U.S. coalition troops
are there, they will not face the music? Is that your position?

Juan Cole: That's right. As long as they think that they have U.S.
military backing, the Shiites and the Kurds will never compromise with
the Sunni Arabs. And as long as the Sunni Arabs think that the U.S. is
backing those forces, they will never give up the struggle against
what they think of as an occupation.

2) Panel to Seek Change on Iraq
A commission backed by Bush has agreed that 'stay the course' is not
working, its leader says. A phased withdrawal is one option on the
table.
Doyle McManus, Los Angeles Times, October 16, 2006
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-fg-planb16oct16,1,5677446.story
A commission backed by President Bush that is exploring U.S. options
in Iraq intends to propose significant changes in the administration's
strategy by early next year, members say. Two options under
consideration would represent reversals of U.S. policy: withdrawing
American troops in phases, and bringing neighboring Iran and Syria
into a joint effort to stop the fighting.

While it weighs alternatives, the 10-member commission headed by
former Secretary of State James A. Baker III has agreed on one
principle. "It's not going to be 'stay the course,' " one participant
said. "The bottom line is, [current U.S. policy] isn't working….
There's got to be another way." If the panel recommends overhauling
Bush's approach to Iraq, it could give a boost not only to critics of
current policy but also to officials in the administration who have
argued for broad changes.
When the panel was formed in March, some administration officials
hoped it would produce a bipartisan endorsement of existing policy.
But as sectarian violence in Iraq has worsened, more Republicans in
Congress - and privately some administration officials -have become
receptive to alternatives. The Baker panel, called the Iraq Study
Group, was formed in response to a proposal by members of Congress.
Nevertheless, Baker sought and won Bush's endorsement.

In recent meetings, the commission focused on two options drafted by
experts outside the government. One, titled "Stability First," calls
for continuing to try to stabilize Baghdad, boosting efforts to entice
insurgents into politics, and bringing Iran and Syria into plans to
end the fighting. The other, called "Redeploy and Contain," goes
further. It calls for a gradual, phased withdrawal of American troops
to bases outside Iraq where they would be available for strikes
against terrorist organizations anywhere in the region.

Bringing Iran and Syria into negotiations would require significant
changes in U.S. policy. "To bring them in, we need to stop emphasizing
things like democracy and start emphasizing things like stability and
territorial integrity," said James Dobbins of the Rand Corp., a former
U.S. envoy to Afghanistan. "We need to stop talking about regime
change. It's unreasonable to think you can stabilize Iraq and
destabilize Iran and Syria at the same time."

3) Iraqis Ask Why U.S. Forces Didn't Intervene in Balad
Michael Luo, New York Times, October 17, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/17/world/middleeast/17iraq.html
American military units joined with Iraqi forces on Monday in
maintaining a fragile peace between Sunni and Shiite communities in
Balad, a rural town north of the capital where an explosion of
sectarian violence over the weekend left dozens dead. Some residents
of Balad asked why American troops had not intervened when the
killings began in earnest on Saturday. One of the largest American
military bases in Iraq, Camp Anaconda, is nearby.

"People are bewildered because of the weak response by the Americans,"
said one Balad resident. "They used to patrol the city every day, but
when the violence started, we didn't see any sign of them." The
situation in Balad appears to show the dilemma for American military
commanders at a time when they are hastening the transfer of wide
areas of the country to Iraqi forces. They are also insisting that
those troops take the lead in quelling violence, leaving American
forces to step in only when asked. It also highlighted yet again the
powerlessness of the Iraqi forces to stand in the way of such
sectarian violence.

Sectarian violence and retribution killings of the kind that unfolded
in Balad over the weekend are the purview of the Interior Ministry, in
charge of Iraq's police forces, and the Iraqi government in general,
said Lt. Col. Michael Donnelly, a spokesman for the military's
northern command in Iraq, adding that responsibility for the Balad
area was transferred from American military units to the Fourth Iraqi
Army about a month ago. The job of the US military in Balad, he said,
is to work "by, through and with" its Iraqi counterparts "to build
further capacity to reduce the violence, and bring about stability."

Most of the killings took place on Saturday, the authorities said.
American troops did not arrive until late Sunday afternoon, taking up
positions in the town center and on its outskirts, said Hamad
al-Qaisi, governor of Salahuddin Province. By then, a curfew had been
imposed on the town and the situation had mostly stabilized.

4) North Korean Fuel Identified as Plutonium
Thom Shanker & David E. Sanger, New York Times, October 17, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/17/world/asia/17diplo.html
American intelligence agencies have concluded that North Korea's test
explosion last week was powered by plutonium that North Korea
harvested from its small nuclear reactor, according to officials who
have reviewed the results of atmospheric sampling.

As administration and intelligence officials watched for indications
that the North might be preparing a second test, Secretary of State
Rice warned North Korea on Monday that it risked even further
isolation if it took such a provocative action. American officials
have reported recent activity at the test site, leading some to
believe that another test might be carried out soon.

Nuclear experts said that the use of plutonium to make the bomb was
important because it suggested that North Korea probably had only one
nuclear program mature enough to produce weapons. "This is good news
because we have a reasonably good idea of how much plutonium they have
made," said Siegfried Hecker, former chief of the Los Alamos National
Laboratory. Hecker said it was his guess that "they tried to test a
reasonably sophisticated device, and they had trouble imploding it
properly."

The supply of plutonium materials is known from the days when
international inspectors kept tabs on the fuel rods in the North's
reactor, and intelligence analysts estimate that North Korea has
enough material to make 6 to 10 plutonium bombs. Politically, the
results of the test may revive last week's finger-pointing about who
is more responsible for the Korean test: Bill Clinton or President
Bush.

Clinton negotiated a deal that froze the production and weaponization
of North Korea's plutonium, but intelligence agencies later determined
that North Korea began its secret uranium program under his watch. The
plutonium that North Korea exploded was produced, according to
intelligence estimates, either during the administration of the first
President Bush or after 2003, when the North Koreans threw out
international inspectors and began reprocessing spent nuclear fuel the
inspectors had kept under seal.

Iran
5) EU set to back limited Iran sanctions
Paul Taylor, Reuters, Tuesday, October 17, 2006; 11:06 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/17/AR2006101700220.html
The EU, spurred by North Korea's nuclear test, backed limited UN
sanctions against Iran's nuclear program on Tuesday after Tehran
spurned conditions for opening negotiations. The EU's foreign
ministers called for incremental measures targeted first at
individuals and materials involved in Iranian uranium enrichment
activities, which the West suspects is aimed at making a bomb.

Ministers made clear that alarm at North Korea's nuclear test and its
implications for other countries were one key factor in showing their
resolve toward Iran, although their economic interests with Tehran are
far greater. Spanish Secretary of State for European Affairs Alberto
Navarro said sanctions would be gradual because Europe, unlike the US,
needed Iran as an oil supplier.

Mark Fitzpatrick of the London-based International Institute for
Strategic Studies said the approach with Tehran would be gentler than
with Pyongyang. "A sanctions resolution on Iran will not be swift or
biting as it has been with North Korea," he said, noting that while
Pyongyang openly affirmed its nuclear weapons intentions, Tehran
insisted its program was peaceful. There was no conclusive proof it
sought an atom bomb, he said.

The six powers that backed the incentives package that Solana put to
Iran - the US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany - are to
start consultations at the UN Wednesday on a sanctions resolution,
diplomats said. Moscow and Beijing have so far been reticent about any
sanctions, but a European diplomat said they had accepted the
principle of an incremental approach raising pressure.

A senior diplomat familiar with IAEA monitoring in Iran said Iranian
efforts to develop its enrichment program beyond the initial test
phase appeared slow. Iran had planned to have a second cascade of 164
centrifuge enrichment machines running by end-September but this had
not happened, he said, while the first cascade was only being
sporadically fed with uranium UF-6 gas for enrichment into fuel.
Analysts have estimated Iran will need 3-10 years to produce enough
fuel for bombs.

6) Russia Demands U.S. Lift Sanctions
Associated Press, October 16, 2006, Filed at 9:48 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-UN-Iran-Nuclear.html
Russia demanded Monday that the US lift sanctions against two Russian
companies accused of making deals with Iran involving sensitive
technology and hinted a U.S. refusal could affect negotiations on a
U.N. sanctions resolution against Tehran. Russia's U.N. Ambassador
Vitaly Churkin said the sanctions against state arms exporter
Rosoboronexport and top aircraft maker Sukhoi for allegedly violating
a U.S. law known as the Iran Nonproliferation Act of 2000, create a
"predicament" for Moscow.

If Russia is asked to vote on a Security Council resolution imposing
sanctions on Iran for refusing to suspend uranium enrichment at the
same time that Russian companies are subject to U.S. sanctions, it
would be voting on a measure "which at least by implication supports
sanctions which have already been imposed on us," he said.

Churkin said Russia wants the sanctions lifted off the two companies,
whether or not U.N. sanctions are leveled against Iran. He made his
comments as France, Britain and Germany were consulting on elements
for a U.N. sanctions resolution against Iran. The U.S. alleges the
Russian companies have made deals with Iran involving sensitive
technology. Russia has objected to the U.S. law, and both Russian
companies deny any violation.

Under the sanctions imposed against the Russian companies in early
August, the U.S. government is prohibited from dealing with them. The
sanctions also suspend any export licenses to the companies for
certain products considered sensitive, and prohibit issuance of new
licenses. In August, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld said Moscow and
Washington disagreed over the facts in the case and he agreed to have
the matter reconsidered.

China's U.N. Ambassador Wang Guangya said he was told that the French
might share their ideas of possible elements for a Security Council
resolution against Iran by the end of the week. Diplomats said the
elements would likely be presented by both France and Britain. German
Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said Monday the EU would back
imposing sanctions against Iran while keeping the door open to future
negotiations.

Churkin softened his stance somewhat when asked if Russia would block
an Iran sanctions resolution if U.S. sanctions against the two
companies weren't lifted. "I don't want to make any strong statements
to that effect," he said. Churkin also signaled that Moscow is in no
hurry to adopt a resolution against Iran. Unlike North Korea, which
conducted a nuclear test, he said, "the current state of things" with
Iran doesn't require a vote within days.

Iraq
7) U.S. Officials Undermine Baghdad, Leader Says
The prime minister tells Bush he's worried about calls for a deadline
to bring order to Iraq.
Paul Richter & Borzou Daragahi, Los Angeles Times, October 17, 2006
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/washingtondc/la-fg-maliki17_oct17,1,5275445.story
Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki told President Bush Monday that U.S.
officials have been undermining his government, and sought reassurance
that the administration was not preparing to abandon him. Maliki said
he was concerned that U.S. officials had openly suggested imposing a
two-month deadline for him to gain control of militias and quell
sectarian violence, said White House Press Secretary Tony Snow.

Maliki said that calls for such a deadline, and proposals for a
three-way partition of Iraq, "were undermining his government," Snow
said. Snow said Bush encouraged the prime minister "to ignore rumors
that the US government was seeking to impose a timeline on the Maliki
government."

Snow speculated that Maliki might have been concerned about the
deadline because of comments this month by Sen. Warner, chair of the
Senate Armed Services Committee, that the US might have to consider a
change in direction if the Iraqi government were unable to restore
order after two or three months. After a recent visit to Iraq, Warner
said he feared the country was "drifting sideways."

Warner is only one of a number of lawmakers who have turned
pessimistic about the direction of the country after visiting Baghdad
and conferring with Iraqi leaders and U.S. civilian and military
officials. U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad declared that the
government needed to show progress within a few months.

8) Iraq's Christians Flee as Extremist Threat Worsens
Michael Luo, New York Times, October 17, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/17/world/middleeast/17christians.html
In the northern city of Mosul, a priest from the Syriac Orthodox
Church was kidnapped last week. His church complied with his captors'
demands and put up posters denouncing recent comments made by the pope
about Islam, but he was killed anyway. Muslim fury over the Pope's
reflections on Islam a month ago - when he quoted a 14th-century
Byzantine emperor as calling Islam "evil and inhuman"- has subsided
elsewhere, but repercussions continue to reverberate in Iraq, bringing
a new level of threat to an already shrinking Christian population.

Several extremist groups threatened to kill all Christians unless the
pope apologized. In Baghdad, many churches canceled services after
receiving threats. Some have not met since. "After the pope's
statement, people began to fear much more than before," said the Rev.
Zayya Edward Khossaba, the pastor of the Church of the Virgin Mary.
"The actions by fanatics have increased against Christians."

Christianity took root here near the dawn of the faith 2,000 years
ago, making Iraq home to one of the world's oldest Christian
communities. The country is rich in biblical significance: scholars
believe the Garden of Eden described in Genesis was in Iraq; Abraham
came from Ur of the Chaldees, a city in Iraq; the city of Nineveh the
prophet Jonah visited after being spit out by a giant fish was in
Iraq. Both Chaldean Catholics and Assyrian Christians, the country's
largest Christian sects, still pray in Aramaic, the language of Jesus.

They have long been a tiny minority amid a sea of Islamic faith. But
under Saddam Hussein, Iraq's million or so Christians for the most
part coexisted peacefully with Muslims, both the dominant Sunnis and
the majority Shiites. But since Hussein's ouster, their status here
has become increasingly uncertain, first because many Muslim Iraqis
framed the American invasion as a crusade against Islam, and second
because Christians traditionally run the country's liquor stories,
anathema to many religious Muslims.

Over the past three and a half years, Christians have been subjected
to a steady stream of church bombings, assassinations, kidnappings and
threatening letters slipped under their doors. Estimates of the
resulting Christian exodus vary from the tens of thousands to more
than 100,000, with most heading for Syria, Jordan and Turkey.

The number of Christians who remain is also uncertain. The last Iraqi
census, in 1987, counted 1.4 million Christians, but many left during
the 1990's when sanctions squeezed the country. Yonadam Kanna, the
lone Christian member of the Iraqi Parliament, estimated the current
Christian population at roughly 800,000, or about 3 percent of the
population. A Chaldean Catholic auxiliary bishop, Andreos Abouna, told
a British charity over the summer there were just 600,000 Christians
left.

9) Families Flee Iraqi River Towns On 4th Day of Sectarian Warfare
Ellen Knickmeyer & Muhanned Saif Aldin, Washington Post, October 17, 2006; A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/16/AR2006101600485.html
Families fled in search of safety Monday as open warfare raged for a
fourth day between Shiite militias and armed Sunnis in towns north of
Baghdad. Militias allied with Iraq's Shiite-led government held sway
in Balad, forcing out Sunni families and leaving the bodies of slain
Sunni men to rot in the streets, according to police, residents and
hospital officials. The Iraqi government deployed more reinforcements
to try to calm the embattled towns and hold open main roads, an
Interior Ministry spokesman said. But local police officers accused
Shiite-dominated government police forces of working alongside Shiite
militias in executing Sunnis and appealed for more help.

The escalating violence in the Tigris River towns in many ways serves
as a microcosm of the daily violence roiling Iraq. Sectarian attacks
have increased more than tenfold since the start of the year and now
claim more than 100 victims a day, according to the Iraqi government.

The violence in Balad was unusual because of the sustained deployment
of the militias on the streets, and the killing seemed particularly
vicious. Balad was "under siege from all sides," police 1st Lt. Bassim
Hamdi said. "We demand that leaders from both sides intervene to stop
the bloodshed. Because if this goes on, it will explode sectarian
violence all over Iraq."

As the carnage mounted, President Bush called Prime Minister Maliki to
reassure the Iraqi leader of his support and assure him he was under
no time pressure from the US to curb sectarian violence.

Israel
10) Israeli Premier Says He Would Talk to Lebanese and Palestinians
Greg Myre, New York Times, October 17, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/17/world/middleeast/17mideast.html
Prime Minister Olmert told the Israeli Parliament Monday that he was
willing to meet the leaders of Lebanon and the Palestinian Authority
in an effort to ease regional tensions, though no such meetings appear
imminent. It was the first day of Parliament's winter session, and was
marked by the absence of the president, Moshe Katsav, who would
normally address legislators.

The Israeli police recommended Sunday that Katsav face charges of rape
and sexual assault committed against women who worked for him. With
the attorney general now reviewing the case to determine whether to
file charges, Katsav canceled plans to attend Monday's session at the
Knesset.

Israeli prime ministers often use the opening of Parliament's winter
session to set out a diplomatic agenda, and Olmert raised the
possibility of talks with Lebanon's prime minister, Fouad Siniora, and
the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas. "I want to take this
opportunity to call on Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora to meet
with me face to face," Olmert said. Olmert has broached the
possibility on several occasions, and Siniora has shot it down each
time, and did so again on Monday. Siniora's office issued a statement
saying that he had "announced more than once that Lebanon will be the
last Arab country to sign a peace deal with Israel."

"I pledge to work tirelessly to take advantage of any opportunity, any
crack, any possibility of holding negotiations that will lead to real
dialogue with responsible representatives of the Palestinian people,"
Olmert said. But he reiterated that no real progress was possible
until Cpl. Gilad Shalit was released. He was captured by Palestinian
militants on June 25. The Palestinians, in turn, are seeking freedom
for a large number of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.

Olmert made no mention of his plan to withdraw from some Jewish
settlements in the West Bank. That was the dominant theme of his
election campaign in the spring. But since then, Olmert's popularity
has fallen sharply, with many Israelis critical of his handling of the
war in Lebanon. His failure to mention the West Bank withdrawal plan
appeared to confirm the widespread belief that it was on hold
indefinitely.

Lebanon
11) Peretz: French UNIFIL commanders say it will fire at IAF overflights
Gideon Alon, Haaretz, 17/10/2006  	 		
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/775387.html
Commanders of the French contingent of the UN force in Lebanon have
warned that they might have to open fire if Israel Air Force warplanes
continue their overflights in Lebanon, Defense Minister Peretz told
the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Monday.

Peretz said that nevertheless, Israel would continue to patrol the
skies over Lebanon as long as UN Security Council Resolution 1701
remained unfulfilled, adding that such operations were critical for
the country's security, especially as the abducted IDF soldiers remain
in Hezbollah custody and the transfer of arms continue.

Over the past few days, Peretz said, Israel had gathered clear
evidence that Syria was transferring arms and ammunition to Lebanon,
meaning that the embargo imposed by UN Resolution 1701 was not being
completely enforced. Israel plans to inform the joint committee of
representatives of UNIFIL, the Israel Defense Forces and the Lebanese
Army that unless the arms transfers are stopped, Israel will be forced
to take independent action, Peretz said.

Palestine
12) Hamas Official: Is Violence Palestinian "Disease?"
Reuters, October 17, 2006, Filed at 8:08 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-mideast-palestinians.html
A senior figure in Hamas, the Islamist group that heads the
Palestinian government, published an article on Tuesday condemning
internal violence and questioning whether it had become a "Palestinian
disease." Ghazi Hamad, who acts as the spokesman for the Hamas-led
government, said he was disturbed by growing factionalism in the
Palestinian territories, including recent deadly clashes between rival
political movements.

"Has violence become a culture implanted in our bodies and our flesh?"
he asked in the sharply worded article, published in the widely read
Palestinian newspaper al-Ayyam. "We have surrendered to it until it
has become the master and is obeyed everywhere -- in the house, the
neighborhood, the family, the clan, the faction and the university."

It was the second time in recent months that Hamad, who is based in
Gaza, had written an opinion piece in al-Ayyam critical of Palestinian
in-fighting. In August, he criticized Palestinian militant groups
fighting Israel, saying they were not doing the cause of Palestinian
independence any good by launching attacks at moments when it appeared
progress was being made.

In the article published on Tuesday, Hamad said the presence of armed
men on almost every street, and their attendance at every rally,
whether political or not, had created an atmosphere of guns and
violence that damaged prospects for calm. It also meant that
television pictures of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict broadcast
around the world too often showed armed men and images of violence,
casting the Palestinian struggle in a poor light, he suggested.

"(Violence) has taken away the language of brotherhood and replaced it
with arms ... It has stolen our unity and divided us into two camps,
or three, or ten," he wrote."Shouldn't we be ashamed of this ugly
behavior which scandalizes us before our people and before the world?"
'Are we all responsible? Yes. Do we all participate in this great sin?
Yes," wrote Hamad. "All of us have the desire not to see arms in the
streets except with policemen…We want to disown this disease, this
cancer, which has damaged our brains and paralyzed our hearts…Have
mercy on your people. Let us walk in peace, sit in peace, have a
dialogue in peace and sleep in calm."

13) US 'Plot to Force Out Hamas'
Inigo Gilmore, Observer/UK, Sunday, October 15, 2006
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/1015-04.htm
Hamas accused the US yesterday of fomenting internal strife among
Palestinians as new details emerged of a campaign to funnel millions
of dollars in funds to its opponents and provide weapons and military
training for rival forces.

Officially the US has put up some $42m to bolster Hamas's political
opponents ahead of possible early Palestinian elections, with
officials saying the program is aimed at promoting alternatives to
Hamas, which won power in January. But reports in Israel suggest cash
is being diverted to military training and to purchase weapons for
forces loyal to President Abbas, amid growing fears that Abbas's Fatah
party and Hamas are headed for a showdown.

Ahmed Youssef, a political adviser to Hamas Prime Minister Ismail
Haniyeh, said yesterday that the US was trying bring down the
government by various means. 'They failed in Iraq, in Afghanistan, in
Lebanon, and they will fail in Palestine because they have no clear
plans on how to deal with Islamists. We hoped after the elections in
January that they would open door to talks, to put things on the table
and to help Palestinians find a final peaceful solution but
unfortunately every time they deal with wrong people and the wrong
ideas.'

US cash is reportedly being used to set up training facilities for
Abbas's special guard, Force 17, in the West Bank town of Jericho and
in Gaza. Hamas, meanwhile has plans to strengthen its 3,000-strong
Executive Force to 7,500 men, and has been importing weapons from
Egypt.

Colombia
14) In Colombia, a Dubious Disarmament
Demobilized Paramilitaries Are Sidestepping Justice, Critics and Victims Say
Juan Forero, Washington Post, Tuesday, October 17, 2006; A14
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/16/AR2006101600971.html
In the midst of a relentless conflict, Colombia's government and its
ally, the Bush administration, are hailing the demobilization of
32,000 fighters from right-wing paramilitary groups.

But another, more critical picture of the disarmament has emerged,
drawn from the accounts of rights groups, victims of Colombia's murky,
drug-fueled conflict, and even a report from the Attorney General's
Office. Paramilitary commanders, according to these accounts, have
killed hundreds of people in violation of a cease-fire, trafficked
cocaine and stolen millions of dollars from state institutions they
had infiltrated.

A handful of lawmakers on Capitol Hill have also voiced concerns about
the disarmament, which is partly funded by the US. "The demobilization
process has been as much about avoiding justice and consolidating
ill-gotten gains as it has been about disarming the paramilitaries,"
said Sen. Patrick Leahy, ranking member of the subcommittee on foreign
operations. "The government needs to stop appeasing the leaders of
these outlaw militias and listen more to their victims."

Critics acknowledge the disarmament has yielded benefits. It has
removed a loose confederation of paramilitary militias from a 42-year
war, leaving the state facing one powerful Marxist rebel organization
and a second, much weaker guerrilla group. It has lowered Colombia's
homicide rate, officials say, and given President Uribe's government
leverage in its efforts to prod the guerrillas to the negotiating
table.

Two months after the last paramilitary fighter laid down his weapon in
a carefully choreographed ceremony, Colombian officials are pledging
to conduct exhaustive investigations of paramilitary atrocities and
launch trials of the militias' most bloodthirsty commanders. They say
the proceedings will bring justice and recompense for thousands of
families who lost relatives or land to the United Self-Defense Forces
of Colombia, known by its Spanish initials, AUC.

But in communities hit hard by paramilitary violence, victims are
incredulous about the government's lofty claims. Once fearful that
speaking out could get them killed, they are increasingly organized
and assertive. And they are sharply criticizing a process that they
say is tilted more toward whitewashing crimes than punishing
perpetrators. Across Colombia, victims and rights groups have been
shaken by revelations in the press about paramilitary-related
outrages, from wealthy commanders patronizing elegant stores in
shopping malls to disclosures of paramilitary ties to Colombia's
Congress.

In the latest scandal, one of the more powerful paramilitary
commanders recruited peasants to play the part of paramilitary
fighters in demobilization ceremonies, according to a report by the
Attorney General's Office. According to its findings, a special bank
account was set up to disburse money to unemployed peasants so they
could "pass themselves off as militiamen, the more the better."

Ecuador
15) Link to Chávez May Have Hurt Ecuadorean Candidate
Simon Romero, New York Times, October 17, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/17/world/americas/17ecuador.html
Rafael Correa, the charismatic economist who garnered a surprisingly
weak showing Sunday in the first round of voting for president, finds
himself in a situation that has plagued leftists in other Latin
American elections this year: defending his ties to President Chávez
of Venezuela.

Álvaro Noboa, a conservative banking and banana magnate, surged ahead
by attacking Correa's admiration for Chávez and his advocacy of
nationalistic economic proposals that seemed inspired by Chávez's
policies. The two candidates are expected to compete in a runoff
election on Nov. 26. Noboa won about 27 percent of the vote and Correa
22 percent, with about 70 percent of the votes counted on Monday.
Correa challenged the results and said fraud might have marred the
count, which suffered from delays. Election officials suspended a
contract with the Brazilian company overseeing electronic tabulations.

Noboa called Correa a "friend of terrorists, a friend of Chávez, a
friend of Cuba." Correa said Noboa would rule Ecuador like a "banana
plantation." Now Mr. Noboa, a billionaire who controls more than 100
companies in Ecuador and other countries, signaled that he would end
diplomatic relations with Venezuela and Cuba if elected.

Issues other than Venezuela have also dominated Ecuador's presidential
race. Noboa wants to negotiate a trade agreement with Washington and
favors extending an agreement that would allow American soldiers to
remain in Manta, an air base used by the US military for drug
surveillance flights.

Correa, like most of the other Ecuadorean presidential candidates,
disagreed with Noboa on those issues. Drawing inspiration from
Argentina, Correa also said he wanted to renegotiate Ecuador's foreign
debt, a move that worried foreign banks about dealing with another
messy default.

Microcredit
16)  Microcredit, Macro Issues
Walden Bello, The Nation, October 14
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20061030/bello
The awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to Muhammad Yunus, regarded as
the father of microcredit, comes at a time when microcredit has become
something like a religion to many of the powerful, rich and famous.
Hillary Clinton regularly speaks about going to Bangladesh, Yunus's
homeland, and being "inspired by the power of these loans to enable
even the poorest of women to start businesses, lifting their
families--and their communities--out of poverty."

Like the liberal Clinton, the neocon Paul Wolfowitz, president of the
World Bank, has also gotten religion, after a recent trip to the
Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. With the fervor of the convert, he
talks about the "transforming power" of microfinance: "I thought maybe
this was just one successful project in one village, but then I went
to the next village and it was the same story. That evening, I met
with more than a hundred women leaders from self-help groups, and I
realized this program was opening opportunities for poor women and
their families in an entire state of 75 million people."

There is no doubt that Yunus, a Bangladeshi economist, came up with a
winning idea that has transformed the lives of many millions of poor
women, and perhaps for that alone, he deserves the Nobel Prize. But
Yunus- at least the young Yunus, who did not have the support of
global institutions when he started out-did not see his Grameen Bank
as a panacea. Others, like the World Bank and the UN, elevated it to
that status, and microcredit is now presented as a relatively painless
approach to development. Through its dynamics of collective
responsibility for repayment by a group of women borrowers,
microcredit has indeed allowed many poor women to roll back pervasive
poverty. However, it is mainly the moderately poor rather than the
very poor who benefit, and not very many can claim they have
permanently left the instability of poverty. Not many would claim that
the degree of self-sufficiency and the ability to send children to
school afforded by microcredit are indicators of their graduating to
middle-class prosperity. As economic journalist Gina Neff notes,
"after 8 years of borrowing, 55% of Grameen households still aren't
able to meet their basic nutritional needs--so many women are using
their loans to buy food rather than invest in business."

Microcredit is a great tool as a survival strategy, but it is not the
key to development, which involves not only massive capital-intensive,
state-directed investments to build industries but also an assault on
the structures of inequality such as concentrated land ownership that
systematically deprive the poor of resources to escape poverty.
Microcredit schemes end up coexisting with these entrenched
structures, serving as a safety net for people excluded and
marginalized by them, but not transforming them. No, Paul Wolfowitz,
microcredit is not the key to ending poverty among the 75 million
people in Andhra Pradesh. Dream on.

--------
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org

Just Foreign Policy is a membership organization devoted to reforming
U.S. foreign policy so that it reflects the values and interests of
the majority of Americans.