[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, October 19, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy News
October 19, 2006

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Summary:
U.S./Top News
President Bush told ABC's Stephanopoulos that a column comparing the
current fighting in Iraq to the Tet offensive in Vietnam, widely seen
as the turning point in that war, might be accurate.

Four months ago, the White House directed Republicans to embrace the
war in Iraq as critical to the antiterrorism fight and belittle
Democrats as advocates of a "cut and run" policy. But with three weeks
until Election Day, Republican candidates are barely mentioning Iraq,
the New York Times reports.

Secretary of State Rice Thursday pressed South Korea to fully
implement U.N. sanctions against North Korea but encountered
nervousness about whether tough action will lead to increased tensions
and war, the Washington Post reports.

Spain's foreign minister said Wednesday that a deal to sell military
aircraft to Venezuela had been canceled because American government
objections made it unfeasible.

In an op-ed in the New York Times, Jeff Stein of Congressional
Quarterly wrote that most American officials he's interviewed don't
have a clue what the difference between a Sunni and a Shiite is, not
just religiously but also politically.

Iran
Iran's leaders have not been impressed by UN sanctions against North
Korea, the New York Times reports.

European nations are expected to begin circulating proposed sanctions
against Iran at the UN, but Western diplomats said only a second or
third round of penalties was likely to force a halt in Iran's
enrichment program, Reuters reports.

Iraq
Attacks killed 10 American troops across Iraq Tuesday, making it the
deadliest day of combat for U.S. forces in 10 months. The one-day toll
is part of a 43 percent increase in attacks on U.S. and Iraqi forces
in the capital since midsummer.

Prime Minister Maliki intervened Wednesday to win the release of one
of Sadr's prominent loyalists, who was seized in an American-led raid
on Tuesday and suspected of complicity in death squads. The release
provoked exasperation among American officials, who have questioned
Maliki's political will or ability to stop the killings, the New York
Times reports.

Militias in Baghdad are splintering into smaller, more radicalized
cells, the Washington Post reports. The fragmentation poses new
obstacles to U.S. and Iraqi forces trying to bring stability. Senior
U.S. military officials acknowledge they do not have the manpower to
conduct urban sweeps in every neighborhood or prevent areas they have
cleared from again becoming havens of lawlessness and killing.

Eleven U.S. service members will face military trials in three cases
in the deaths of Iraqi civilians, including the gang rape and slaying
of a teenage girl and the killing of her family in their home in
Mahmudiyah, the military said yesterday. Those cases, particularly the
alleged gang rape, as well as the killing of 24 people in Haditha,
have sparked outrage among Iraqis, Reuters reports.

Israel
Israel's High Court has urged the army to reconsider its denial of
entry to a Palestinian woman to study at Hebrew University, BBC
reports. The decision is testing Israel's restrictions on Palestinian
travel that were tightened earlier this year after Hamas formed a
Palestinian government.

United Arab Emirates
After decades of selling dreams to foreigners, the UAE has begun
debating the limits of multiculturalism, the New York Times reports.
Tensions burst into the open when a newspaper article protested the
growing disrespect for Muslim customs during Ramadan.

Afghanistan
Airstrikes by NATO helicopters killed at least nine civilians in
southern Afghanistan, including women and children, residents and the
provincial governor said. Kandahar's governor said it appeared no
Taliban fighters were in the village at the time of the airstrikes, AP
reports.

Nigeria
Nigeria's president declared a state of emergency Thursday in a
troubled southwest state where he said the impeachment of the governor
by the local legislature violated the constitution, AP reports.
Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer and the fifth-largest
supplier of oil to the US. Much of the oil proceeds never reach the
poor in the regions where the crude is pumped, AP notes.

Contents:
U.S./Top News
1) Bush Accepts Iraq-Vietnam Comparison
George Stephanopoulos Interviews President Bush on Iraq, the Midterms
and His Legacy
Ed O'Keefe, ABC News, Oct. 18, 2006
http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/story?id=2583579
President Bush said in an interview with ABC News' George
Stephanopoulos that a newspaper column comparing the current fighting
in Iraq to the 1968 Tet offensive in Vietnam, which was widely seen as
the turning point in that war, might be accurate. Stephanopoulos asked
if the president agreed with columnist Tom Friedman, who wrote in the
New York Times that the situation in Iraq may be equivalent to the Tet
offensive in Vietnam almost 40 years ago. "He could be right," the
president said, before adding, "There's certainly a stepped-up level
of violence, and we're heading into an election."

[Juan Cole writes: Bush doesn't see the comparison as others see it:
Bush thinks things are going well in Iraq, but a few trouble-makers
have made it seem the US isn't making progress. He is saying just as
the Tet offensive was a military defeat for the Viet Cong but a
propaganda defeat for Washington, so the October offensive of the
guerrillas is smoke and mirrors. But the US military is not defeating
the guerrillas militarily. The American public does not hold the view
of Vietnam popular among far-right politicians like Bush, and so none
but true believers will catch his drift. Most Americans will think
Bush has admitted we are in an unwinnable quagmire. www.juancole.com]

[To the extent that Friedman himself is a bellweather of elite
opinion, his pessimistic column ("Barney and Baghdad," October 18) was
another sign of the shift underway, a particularly striking one since,
as FAIR pointed out in March, Friedman has been saying since the
beginning of the war that the next six months were going to be
decisive. After 3 years, it seems that the six months are up and the
verdict is in: we never turned the corner. See "Tom Friedman's
Flexible Deadlines: Iraq's 'decisive' six months have lasted two and a
half years," http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=2884.]

2) Tables Turned for the G.O.P. Over Iraq Issue
Adam Nagourney & Jim Rutenberg, New York Times, October 19, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/19/us/politics/19campaign.html
Four months ago, the White House offered a set of clear political
directions to Republicans heading into the midterm elections: embrace
the war in Iraq as critical to the antiterrorism fight and belittle
Democrats as advocates of a "cut and run" policy of weakness. With
three weeks until Election Day, Republican candidates are barely
mentioning Iraq on the campaign trail and in their television
advertisements.

Even President Bush, continuing to attack Democrats for opposing the
war, has largely dropped his call of "stay the course" and replaced it
with a more nuanced promise of flexibility. It is the Democrats who
have seized on Iraq as a central issue. In debates and in speeches,
candidates are pummeling Republicans with accusations of a failed war.

Rather than avoiding confrontation on Iraq as they did in 2002 and
2004, they are spotlighting their opposition in new television
advertisements that feature mayhem and violence in Iraq, denounce
Republicans for supporting Bush and, in at least one case, demand the
ouster of Defense Secretary Rumsfeld. The discussion on the campaign
trail suggests just how much of a problem the Iraq war has become for
Republicans.

3) Rice Pushes South Korea to Pressure North on Nuclear Program
Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Thursday, October 19, 2006; 12:24 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/19/AR2006101900203.html
Secretary of State Rice Thursday pressed the South Korean government
to fully implement U.N. sanctions against North Korea for its nuclear
test but encountered rising nervousness in South Korea about whether
tough action will lead to increased tensions and war.

South Korean officials said they had deferred decisions on whether to
suspend two cross-border business projects with North Korea - the Mt.
Kumgang tourism project and the Kaeseong Industrial Park. Foreign
Minister Ban Ki Moon said the government will evaluate its
participation in light of a new U.N. Security Council resolution that
punishes North Korea for the Oct. 9 test by halting trade in weapons,
luxury goods and other items. He noted that the Kumgang project, which
provides North Korea about $13 million a year, is "very symbolic" for
the potential unification of the two Koreas.

One of the South Korean government's top officials was quoted in local
newspapers as saying his country could not be left at the whim of U.S.
policy, given that the US "has fought more wars than any other
nation." Song Min Soon, chief presidential secretary for security,
later softened his remarks, explaining that the "US has global
interests" but that it also was important for Washington "to accept
our interests" and "harmonize our needs in the U.S. global policy." He
said the U.N. resolution would be implemented through "our view and
our interpretation."

4) U.S. Objections Lead Spain to End Venezuela Deal
Renwick Mclean, New York Times, October 19, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/19/world/europe/19spain.html
Spain's foreign minister said Wednesday that a deal to sell military
aircraft to Venezuela had been canceled because American government
objections made it unfeasible. The Bush administration denied Spain's
request in January, saying that the sale would strengthen the
government of President Chávez and destabilize the region. Permission
from the White House was needed because the aircraft would use
American technology.

EADS-CASA, the company that sought to build the airplanes, had said
after the Bush administration's rejection that it would seek
alternative technology from another country. On Wednesday the foreign
minister announced that the company, a division of the European
defense company EADS, had decided to drop those plans. "The company
tried to find alternatives for that transfer of technology, and it
reached the conclusion that the economic effort required to carry it
out would not be profitable," he said.

The aircraft deal, which involved the sale of 12 military transport
planes, was signed in November as part of a broader agreement between
Spain and Venezuela that was valued at about $2.1 billion. Spanish
officials say that the aircraft deal would have created hundreds of
jobs. They also dispute the American contention that the sale would
have a destabilizing effect, contending that transport planes are not
suited for attack missions that could threaten Venezuela's neighbors.

The foreign minister suggested his government would continue backing
Spanish companies that seek deals with Venezuela in the future. "We
favor any business initiative with anyone in Latin America or any
country that we feel fulfills the norms of trade, good behavior and
good conduct," he said.

5) Op-Ed: Can You Tell a Sunni From a Shiite?
Jeff Stein, New York Times, October 17, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/17/opinion/17stein.html
For several months, I've been wrapping up lengthy interviews with
Washington counterterrorism officials with a fundamental question: "Do
you know the difference between a Sunni and a Shiite?" As I quickly
explain to my subjects, I'm not looking for theological explanations,
just the basics: Who's on what side today, and what does each want?

So far, most American officials I've interviewed don't have a clue.
That includes not just intelligence and law enforcement officials, but
also members of Congress who have important roles overseeing our spy
agencies. How can they do their jobs without knowing the basics? My
curiosity about our policymakers' grasp of Islam's two major branches
was piqued in 2005, when Jon Stewart and other TV comedians made hash
out of depositions, taken in a whistleblower case, in which top F.B.I.
officials drew blanks when asked basic questions about Islam.

Iran
6) Iran Seems Unmoved by Specter of Sanctions Against North Korea
Nazila Fathi, New York Times, October 19, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/19/world/middleeast/19iran.html
For the most part, Iran's leaders have offered silence on what lessons
they draw from the sanctions that the UN Security Council adopted last
weekend to punish North Korea for its nuclear test, other than to say,
as they have in the past, that they intend to continue what they call
a peaceful nuclear program. But on Monday, President Ahmadinejad said
the sanctions on North Korea would not deter Iran. On Tuesday, he said
efforts aimed at preventing Iran from having nuclear technology were
doomed to fail.

At the UN, Britain, France, Germany and the US are working on a
Security Council resolution calling for sanctions against Iran for
defying the organization's call to stop enriching uranium. The
resolution, which they hope to introduce early next week, may include
a ban on nuclear or missile cooperation with Iran.

Hard-line newspapers close to Iran's supreme religious leader Khamenei
and to Ahmadinejad warned this week that Iran would respond to any
sanctions. Jomhouri Islami wrote in an editorial Monday Iran could
take steps that would jeopardize economic and political interests of
European countries. The daily Kayhan warned Tuesday that if Europeans
favored sanctions on Iran, then Iran would act. "Europe could have
learned a lesson from what happened in Afghanistan, Iraq and during
the 33-day war in Lebanon, and not underestimate the capability of the
Islamic Republic of Iran for taking revenge on its enemies," it said.

7) Proposed Iran sanctions to be circulated at U.N. soon
Sophie Walker, Reuters, Thursday, October 19, 2006; 12:01 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/19/AR2006101900768.html
European nations are expected to begin circulating proposed sanctions
against Iran at the UN shortly, but Western diplomats said Thursday
only a second or third round of penalties was likely to force a halt
in Tehran's nuclear work. The draft text is expected to include curbs
on Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile program, which observers
concede will probably not impinge on its uranium enrichment
activities.

The crucial test will be whether the "P5+1" group made up of the
permanent members of the U.N. Security Council -- the United States,
Britain, China, Russia and France -- and Germany can hold their
resolve through a second and maybe third round of more biting
resolutions in the coming weeks and months. Britain's ambassador to
the U.N., said the Europeans hoped to circulate their draft to the
full 15-member council "early next week."

Iran has refused to stop uranium enrichment, which the West says it is
doing to build atomic bombs but Tehran says is intended only to
produce fuel for nuclear power plants.
[This allegation about Iran's motivations is a tendentious
characterization of the position of the "West." To the extent that the
US has been able to build consensus, it has been around the idea that
Iran should demonstrate its peaceful intentions, not around a
characterization that its intentions are to build atomic bombs -JFP.]
Diplomats say the resolve since then to draft sanctions took Iran by
surprise, and that Tehran had expected to be able to capitalize for
longer on China and Russia's reluctance to move beyond a purely
diplomatic process.

Moscow and Beijing have expressed most caution throughout the
negotiations. Russia has considerable trade links with Iran, while
China is heavily dependent on its oil exports. Both countries say it
is "absolutely unacceptable" to threaten force. Several European
diplomats said it will be vital that the process of expanding
sanctions continues at a pace that allows Russia and China to stay the
course. The toughest debate will be whether to target Iran's oil and
gas resources for sanctions, although some say this may become easier
with time. Iran is the world's fourth largest crude oil exporter but
its bargaining clout is diminishing as, for example, Saudi Arabia
lines up extra oil reserves.

The CIA says Iran is years away from obtaining a nuclear weapon and
Washington has indicated it will accept a slower pace for the
sanctions drive if it keeps Russia and China on board, diplomats say.

Iraq
8) One-Day Toll in Iraq Combat Is Highest for U.S. in Months
At Least 12 Killed in Fresh Attacks on Iraqi Police Facilities
Ellen Knickmeyer, Washington Post, Thursday, October 19, 2006; 9:30 AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/19/AR2006101900295.html
A roadside bombing and other attacks killed 10 American troops across
Iraq on Tuesday, the U.S. military reported Wednesday, making it the
deadliest day of combat for U.S. forces in 10 months. The one-day
toll, part of what the U.S. military has said is a 43 percent increase
in attacks on U.S. and Iraqi forces in the capital since midsummer,
occurred as casualties among Iraqi troops and civilians are soaring
far higher than at any previous time in the war, according to U.S. and
Iraqi tallies.

Thursday morning, a suicide attacker drove an oil tanker into a police
station in Mosul, killing 12 people, Iraqi police officials said. In
the northern city of Kirkuk, a car bomb targeting a group of Iraqi
soldiers in a crowded market area killed at least eight people and
wounded scores more, Reuters reported.

The escalating number of killings underscores both the surging nature
of sectarian violence and the increasing lethality of roadside bombs,
which claim the most American lives in Iraq despite efforts to bolster
armor and use high-technology devices to disable bombs. Five of the
American troop deaths Tuesday were caused by bombs.

9) Premier of Iraq Seeks Assistance of Shiite Clerics
Kirk Semple & John F. Burns, New York Times, October 19, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/19/world/middleeast/19iraq.html
Prime Minister Maliki flew to the holy city of Najaf Wednesday to
plead for help from Iraq's two most influential Shiite clerics, in a
sign of the crisis surrounding the Iraqi government as it faces
mounting American pressure to quell sectarian violence by reining in
Shiite militias. Maliki returned to Baghdad without any clear
breakthrough in his meetings with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani,
Iraq's most revered Shiite cleric, and Moktada al-Sadr, the
anti-American leader of the Mahdi Army militia, which has been accused
of a wave of sectarian attacks on Iraq's Sunni minority.

Ayatollah Sistani is widely viewed in Iraq as the only Shiite leader
with the potential authority to subdue the Shiite militias. Maliki is
regarded as a protégé of Ayatollah Sistani's, but is also politically
indebted to Sadr, whose party holds a crucial bloc of seats in Iraq's
Parliament.

Maliki intervened Wednesday to win the release of one of Sadr's
prominent loyalists, who was seized in an American-led raid on Tuesday
and suspected of complicity in death squads. The release provoked a
wave of exasperation among American officials and military commanders,
who have made little secret of their growing doubts about Maliki's
political will or ability to stop the killings.

10) Militias Splintering Into Radicalized Cells
New Groups Appear More Ruthless In Use of Bombings and Death Squads
Sudarsan Raghavan, Washington Post, Thursday, October 19, 2006; A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/18/AR2006101801865.html
In the void forged by the sectarian tensions gripping Baghdad,
militias are further splintering into smaller, more radicalized cells,
signifying a new and potentially more volatile phase in the struggle
for the capital. Iraqis and U.S. officials blame militias for mass
kidnappings and slayings, for setting up unauthorized checkpoints and
for causing much of the recent carnage.

Senior U.S. military and intelligence officials say they have
identified at least 23 militias - some are Sunni, but most are Shiite.
Some are paramilitary offshoots of the Mahdi Army or have broken away
entirely from Sadr's command structure. Others seem inspired by
Lebanon's Shiite Hezbollah guerrilla movement.

The fragmentation poses new obstacles to U.S. and Iraqi forces trying
to quell the sectarian strife that U.S. commanders fear could plunge
the nation into civil war. Militias have already replaced the Sunni
Arab insurgency as the biggest challenge to U.S. efforts to bring
stability to Iraq. Senior U.S. military officials privately
acknowledge they do not have the manpower to conduct urban sweeps in
every neighborhood or prevent areas they have cleared from again
becoming havens of lawlessness and killing.

11) Military Will Try 11 in Iraq Slayings
Kristin Roberts, Reuters, Thursday, October 19, 2006; A22
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/18/AR2006101801104.html
U.S. service members will face military trials in three separate cases
in the deaths of Iraqi civilians, including the gang rape and slaying
of a teenage girl and the killing of her family in their home in
Mahmudiyah, the military said yesterday. An Army general ordered the
courts-martial of four soldiers in the Mahmudiyah case and said two of
the four could face death if found guilty. One of the accused will
testify against the others, according to his attorney.

Army Maj. Gen. Thomas Turner also ordered military trials for four
soldiers accused of murdering three Iraqi detainees during a raid on a
suspected insurgent camp near Tharthar Lake, southwest of Tikrit. In
the third case, three U.S. Marines will be tried on murder charges in
the death of an Iraqi grandfather kidnapped from his house in
Hamdaniyah in the middle of the night, the Marine Corps said.

Those cases, particularly the alleged Mahmudiyah gang rape, as well as
the killing of 24 people in Haditha, have sparked outrage among
Iraqis. The Mahmudiyah case led Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to call
for a review of foreign troops' immunity from Iraqi prosecution. The
Haditha allegations are still being investigated, and no Marines have
been charged.

Israel
12) Court presses Israeli army on ban
BBC News, 18 October 2006
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6063776.stm
Israel's High Court has urged the army to reconsider its denial of
entry to a Palestinian woman to study at Hebrew University. The
decision is testing Israel's restrictions on Palestinian travel that
were tightened earlier this year. A panel urged the army to allow a
29-year-old student to start her doctoral studies. The army has barred
Sawsan Salameh from entering Israel, despite calls from Hebrew
University. The student from Anata, a West Bank town, was meant to
start chemistry classes this month. Chief Justice Beinisch urged
Israeli authorities and Salameh's lawyers to reach a deal within seven
days which she would review before a final ruling. Travel restrictions
on Palestinians entering Israel have tightened since Hamas formed a
Palestinian government in March.

United Arab Emirates
13) Beyond Skimpy Skirts, a Rare Debate on Identity
Hassan M. Fattah, New York Times, October 19, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/19/world/middleeast/19dubai.html
South Asians call it "the best run Indian city," Arabs celebrate it as
a model of Arab accomplishment, and Westerners embrace it for its
endless sunshine and luxury lifestyle. With more than 150
nationalities and almost as many expressions of culture, Dubai is one
of the most diverse cities in the Middle East. But after decades of
selling dreams to foreigners, this Persian Gulf emirate has begun
debating the limits of multiculturalism.

Tensions burst into the open in early October when an English-language
newspaper published an article protesting the growing disrespect for
Muslim customs here during Ramadan, setting off a rare public debate
about Dubai's cultural identity. "Too much flesh on show is wrong in a
Muslim country at any time - but offense is being felt especially
during Ramadan," said the front-page editorial in 7Days, a free daily
tabloid.

The article appeared with photographs of women in sleeveless tops and
short skirts at a shopping mall under the headline, "Show Some
Respect." 7Days, which is run and edited largely by Westerners,
advised its readers to "please remember that this is a Muslim country
and many of us are guests here." Within hours, the newspaper was
flooded with e-mail messages and phone calls, many praising the paper
for acknowledging the sensitivities of Muslims but others lambasting
it for seeming to toe an official line. Soon the entire emirate was
talking.

Afghanistan
14) NATO Airstrikes Kill 9 Afghan Civilians
Associated Press, Thursday, October 19, 2006; A25
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/18/AR2006101801640.html
Airstrikes by NATO helicopters hunting Taliban fighters ripped through
three mud homes in southern Afghanistan as villagers slept early
Wednesday. At least nine civilians were killed, including women and
children, residents and the provincial governor said.

Shellshocked, angry villagers in Ashogho condemned the attack, which
set back NATO's hopes of winning local support for their tough
counterinsurgency campaign. The airstrikes came at about the same time
a rocket struck a house in a village to the west, reportedly killing
13 people. "I am not Taliban! We are not Taliban!" Gulab Shah shouted
amid the rubble of the ruined houses in Ashogho.

Kandahar Gov. Asadullah Khalid said it appeared that no Taliban
fighters were in the village at the time of the airstrikes. NATO's
International Security Assistance Force said in a statement that
Wednesday's operation was believed to have caused several civilian
casualties. The operation, it said, was meant to detain people
involved in roadside bomb attacks in Panjwai district, which borders
Zhari.

Nigeria
15) State of Emergency Declared in Nigeria
Associated Press, October 19, 2006, Filed at 4:26 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Nigeria-State-of-Emergency.html
Nigeria's president declared a state of emergency Thursday in a
troubled southwest state where he said the impeachment of the governor
by the local legislature violated the constitution. Legislators in
southwest Ekiti state voted to remove Gov. Ayo Fayose on Monday after
finding him guilty of siphoning state funds into personal bank
accounts and receiving kickbacks. President Obasanjo suspended the
state legislature for six months, along with Fayose, his deputy and
Friday Aderemi, the former speaker of local parliament who is claiming
to be governor.

Obasanjo appointed a retired general to administer the affairs of the
state and maintain security there for the next six months. The removal
of Fayose was illegal because some steps in the impeachment process
violated Nigeria's constitution, Obasanjo said. Information Minister
Frank Nweke said the legislators' removal of a state chief judge was
an action outside their power. The replacement judge set up the
impeachment panel that found Fayose guilty of misconduct.

Troops and police were patrolling the streets of the state capital,
and guarding key government buildings, residents said. Meanwhile,
rival governments had set up in different neighborhoods. The former
speaker of the legislature chose a Cabinet in one part of the city. In
another neighborhood, Fayose's deputy held a Cabinet meeting on behalf
of the deposed governor.

The stream of allegations add to growing uncertainty about the
stability of Africa's most populous country ahead of crucial general
elections due in April 2007. Thirty-one of Nigeria's 36 state
governors are being investigated for corruption. Nigeria is regularly
rated among the most corrupt countries in the world by Transparency
International.

Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer and the fifth-largest
supplier of oil to the US. Much of the oil proceeds never reach the
poor in the regions where the crude is pumped.

--------
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org

Just Foreign Policy is a membership organization devoted to reforming
U.S. foreign policy so that it reflects the values and interests of
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