[Peace-discuss] Polls

[Morton K. Brussel]

FYI. There are some typos I believe, but the results are interesting,  
indicating increased skepticism of pronouncements from Washington. It  
will be interesting to see how the latest administration propaganda  
on the "War on Terror" affects these polls and the electorate. --mkb

Poll Finds Waning Faith in Military Interventions
by Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON - Five years after "9/11", the U.S. public is considerably  
less enthusiastic about projecting military power abroad, according  
to a major new survey, the first of a spate of polls that are likely  
to released in the run-up to Monday's fifth anniversary of the  
attacks on New York and the Pentagon.

The survey, conducted by the Pew Research Centre for the People and  
the Press here, found that Republicans remained substantially more  
supportive of military deployments overseas than both Democrats and  
independents who also believe -- by a three to one margin -- that the  
U.S. has lost respect in the world over the last few years.

The survey of more than 1,500 randomly selected adults also found  
that nearly half (46 percent) of the respondents consider U.S.  
support for Israel a "major reason" for the rise in anti-U.S.  
sentiment around the world, a significant increase since Pew last  
posed the question 10 months ago.

Significantly, that view was held by similar percentages of self- 
described Republicans and Democrats who, on most other foreign policy  
questions, showed wide partisan differences.

The survey, however, was conducted Aug. 9-13, just before the  
ceasefire that ended the month-long war between Israel and Hezbollah,  
when international pressure on Washington to persuade the Jewish  
State to stop its bombing campaign in Lebanon was at its height.

Publication of the Pew survey coincided with the release of a second  
poll released Wednesday by CNN which found widespread scepticism over  
claims by the administration of President George W. Bush that the  
U.S. is making progress in the war on Iraq and that the war is  
related to the larger "global war on terrorism" launched after 9/11.

Only one in four respondents in that poll, which was conducted Aug.  
30 to Sep. 2, thought that Washington and its allies were winning the  
war, compared to 13 percent who said the insurgents were winning and  
62 percent who said that the war was essentially stalemated.

Despite repeated and increasingly frequent assertions by Bush that  
the war in Iraq has become the "central front" in the war on  
terrorism, a majority of 53 percent said it was "an entirely separate  
military action." A larger majority of 58 percent said they opposed  
the war, compared to 39 percent who said they favoured it -- a margin  
that has not changed substantially over recent months.

The most interesting finding of the latest Pew poll appeared to be  
the growing public disillusionment with U.S. military intervention.

By a 45 percent to 32 percent margin, respondents said they believed  
that the most effective way to reduce the threat of terrorist attacks  
on the U.S. is to "decrease" rather than "increase" Washington's  
military presence abroad.

As noted in an accompanying analysis by the Pew Centre, that finding  
marks a "stark reversal" from the public's position on the first  
anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. At that time, a plurality of 48  
percent of the public said expanding U.S. military deployments  
overseas was the best way to protect against future attacks, while 29  
percent called for reducing such commitments.

Similarly, according to the new survey, 43 percent of respondents  
today say they believed that "military strikes" against nations that  
were trying to develop nuclear weapons was a very important way to  
reduce future terrorism -- a reduction of 15 percent compared to a  
Pew survey taken in October 2002 when Bush was trying to win  
Congressional approval for a resolution authorising him to take  
military action against Iraq.

The new survey also suggested a more general desire to reduce U.S.  
involvement in the Middle East compared to four years ago. Asked to  
identify what would be a "very important" step in reducing terrorism,  
attacking nuclear facilities was rated the highest (58 percent) in a  
group of five options. It was followed by increasing defence spending  
and decreasing dependence on Mideast oil (53 percent) and "not get 
(ting) involved in other countries' problems (32 percent).

In the most recent poll, however, attacking nuclear facilities ranked  
third, far behind decreasing dependence on Mideast oil (67 percent)  
and increasing defence spending (52 percent), and just two points  
ahead of the non-involvement option, which rose (41 percent).

The increase in what some would describe as "isolationist" sentiment  
echoed a similar finding in another poll conducted by Pew and the  
Council on Foreign Relations in November 2005. Forty-two percent of  
respondents said they believed Washington should "mind its own  
business internationally and let other countries get along the best  
they can on their own", compared to only 30 percent who took that  
position in December 2002.

Democrats and independents account for much of these changes. In the  
summer of 2002, for example, Democrats by an eight-point margin  
favoured an increased military presence overseas. They now favour by  
a diminished presence by a nearly three-to-one margin.. Support for a  
decreased military presence among independents has also dropped  
sharply, by some 17 percentage points, to a 49 percent plurality.

On the question of why the U.S. has lost support around the world,  
more than two-thirds of respondents identified a "major reason" as  
the Iraq war, 58 percent cited "America's wealth and power"; 49  
percent, "the U.S.-led war on terror"; and 46 percent, "U..S. support  
for Israel".

Democrats were significantly more likely than Republicans to cite the  
Iraq war and the war on terrorism, while Republicans were more likely  
to cite "America's wealth and power."

The survey also found a gradual increase in the view that the 9/11  
attacks signified the beginning of a major conflict between the West  
and the Islamic world. In October 2001, for example, only 28 percent  
of respondents agreed with that view; in August 2002, 35 percent  
expressed agreement, and, in the most recent poll, 40 percent took  
that position.

Conversely, the percentage of those who agreed with the proposition  
that 9/11 represented only a conflict with a "small, radical group"  
has fallen from 63 percent to 49 percent over the same five-year period.

Still, 47 percent of respondents today said that 9/11 attacks were  
equal in seriousness to the 1941 Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour,  
Hawaii, that launched the U.S. into World War II, while 35 percent  
said they were "more serious." Younger respondents, however, were  
significantly more likely to say they were "more serious" than older  
respondents.
Copyright © 2006 IPS-Inter Press Service
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