[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, September 20, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Just Foreign Policy News
September 20, 2006
http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/newsroom/index.html

Summary:
U.S.
The Bush Administration's campaign for democracy appeared to lose its
voice somewhat in response to the military coup in Thailand. While the
European Union condemned the coup and called for "the military forces
stand back and give way to the democratically elected political
government,'' the State Department merely said that it was uneasy
about the military takeover and hoped ''the Thai people will resolve
their political differences in accord with democratic principles and
the rule of law.''

President Bush and President Ahmadinejad clashed at the UN Tuesday
over Iran's nuclear ambitions and each other's place in the world.
Ahmadinejad accused the US of hegemony and hypocrisy. Bush said Iran's
leaders were misleading Iranians about US intentions.

The New York Times editorializes against both President Bush's
proposal for the treatment of detainees and Senator Warner's
alternative. The White House bill repudiates the Geneva Conventions.
The alternative bill preserves the Conventions but defines "illegal
enemy combatant" so broadly it could be applied to almost any
foreigner. Both bills choke off judicial review and allow those
acquitted by a military tribunal to be held indefinitely.

A coalition of religious leaders in Connecticut has come together to
pressure Senators Lieberman and Dodd to come out in opposition to
torture.

Senate Majority Leader Frist signaled yesterday that he and other
White House allies will filibuster a bill dealing with the
interrogation and prosecution of detainees if they cannot persuade a
rival group of Republicans to rewrite key provisions opposed by
President Bush.

Iran
The White House has muddied what were once clear lines in pursuit of
diplomacy, the Washington Post reports.  U.S. officials have
acquiesced in a European effort to find a face-saving way for the
talks to begin. U.S. officials are still pursuing sanctions. But with
allies balking, negotiations appear more likely than punishment.

President Ahmadinejad suggested Tuesday that Pope Benedict had
satisfactorily "modified" his remarks on Islam, one sign of an easing
of anger since the pope issued an apology.

President Bush struck a more conciliatory tone on Iran in his speech
at the UN than in previous speeches, the Washington Post reports.

Warren Buffett pledged $50 million to help the IAEA set up an
international nuclear fuel bank that aspiring powers like Iran could
turn to for reactor fuel instead of making it on their own.

Iraq
Senior Iraqi and American officials are beginning to question whether
Prime Minister Maliki has the political muscle and decisiveness to
hold Iraq together as it hovers on the edge of full civil war, the New
York Times reports.

A leader of a panel studying American policy toward Iraq said Tuesday
that Prime Minister Maliki must take immediate action to improve
security, end sectarian killings, reduce corruption and deliver basic
services if he wants to retain US support.

Lebanon
Residents of southern Lebanon remain skeptical of the intentions of
new UN peacekeepers, Anthony Shadid reports for the Washington Post.

Palestine
President Abbas is trying to convince Israel and the US that a
national unity government with Hamas will satisfy Western demands that
Hamas recognize the right of Israel to exist, forswear violence and
accept prior Israeli-Palestinian agreements. But a draft political
program does not mention Israel. It speaks of a Palestinian state in
the territories captured by Israel in 1967, and says the government
shall respect agreements signed by the PLO, but "in a manner that
protects and safeguards the higher interests and the rights of the
Palestinian people." Such phrases, and another emphasizing "the right
of return" of Palestinian refugees, are seen by Israel as only a
conditional acceptance of a two-state solution and thus falling short
of international demands, the New York Times reports.

Egypt
Gamal Mubarak, son of Egypt's president, proposed that Egypt pursue
nuclear energy, drawing applause from Egypt's elite and raising
expectations he is being positioned to replace his father. The speech
raised the prospect of two embarrassing developments for the White
House: a nuclear program in Egypt, recipient of $2 billion a year in
US aid, and Gamal succeeding his father without substantial political
challenge.

Yemen
Voters go to the polls Wednesday in Yemen's presidential election, a
heated contest pitting voters' desire for change against fear of
instability. It may prove to be one of the most open electoral battles
in the region, the New York Times reports.

Thailand
Thailand will probably not restore democracy for at least a year, Gen.
Sondhi Boonyaratkalin, the commander who seized power in a coup,
announced. General Sondhi's junta banned public gatherings and urged
"farmers and laborers" - many of whom are strong supporters of the
ousted government - to stay out of politics.

In this issue:
U.S.
1) Thai Army Chief Gets King's Endorsement
2) Leaders Spar Over Iran's Aims and U.S. Power
3) Rules for the Real World
4) Religious leaders target Lieberman in torture debate
5) Dissidents' Detainee Bill May Face Filibuster
Iran
6) U.S. Policy on Iran Evolves Toward Diplomacy
7) Iranian Leader Accepts Efforts by Pope to Recast His Remarks
8) In U.N. Speech, Bush Softens Tone on Iran
9) $50 Million Offer Aims at Curbing Efforts to Make Nuclear Fuel
Iraq
10) Doubts Rise on Iraqi Premier's Strength
11) Iraq Must Act on Security Now, U.S. Advisory Panel Chief Says
Lebanon
12) Lebanon Peacekeepers Met With Skepticism
Palestine
13) Israel Hopes to Complete Its Withdrawal From Lebanon on Friday
Egypt
14) Mubarak's Son Proposes Nuclear Program
Yemen
15) Yemen Leader Is Now Paying for Providing Open Election
Thailand
16) Leader of Coup in Thailand Sets Timetable

Contents:
U.S.
1) Thai Army Chief Gets King's Endorsement
Associated Press, September 20, 2006, Filed at 11:27 a.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Thailand.html
Australia called the coup a ''great disappointment,'' while Japan
urged the quick restoration of democracy. The European Union condemned
the military takeover, while Washington expressed concern about it…
The EU joined condemnation of the coup and said ''the military forces
stand back and give way to the democratically elected political
government.'' …In Washington, the State Department said it was uneasy
about the military takeover and hoped ''the Thai people will resolve
their political differences in accord with democratic principles and
the rule of law.''

2) Leaders Spar Over Iran's Aims and U.S. Power
Jim Rutenberg & Helene Cooper, New York Times, September 20, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/20/world/middleeast/20prexy.html
President Bush and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran, separated by
several hours, clashed at the UN Tuesday over Iran's nuclear ambitions
and each other's place in the world. Ahmadinejad accused the US of
hegemony and hypocrisy, and said it did not seem to have the political
will or ability to halt violence in Iraq. He said his nation was
pursuing only a peaceful nuclear program, and that it was the US that
was using its nuclear weapons to intimidate the world. He said the UN
Security Council was too beholden to the US to control it. Bush made a
direct appeal to the Iranian people from the UN, telling them their
leaders were misleading them about the US intentions while using their
national treasury to sponsor terrorists and build nuclear weapons. [If
US intentions towards Iran are peaceful, as Bush suggests, then Time
magazine, reporting on US preparations for a military attack, is also
misleading Iranians about US intentions. -JFP]
The speeches are provided by the UN here:
http://www.un.org/webcast/ga/61/gastatement19.shtml

3) Rules for the Real World
Editorial, New York Times, September 20, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/20/opinion/20wed1.html
In Iraq, American authorities have been holding an AP photographer for
five months without charging him with any crime. Military officials
say they have evidence that Bilal Hussein has "strong ties" to
insurgents, but refuse to show it to Hussein, his lawyers, AP or Iraqi
courts. If the Americans have evidence against Hussein, they should
present it. If he committed a crime, he should be charged. If not, he
should be set free.

Congress needs to pass an effective law on the handling of prisoners
that not only provides for legal military tribunals to try dangerous
men like Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, but also deals with the other men,
perhaps hundreds, wrongly imprisoned at Guantánamo Bay, and sets rules
for the future.  The bills before Congress don't meet the test. The
White House measure endorses the practice of picking up any foreign
citizens the US wants, abusing and even torturing them, and then
trying them on the basis of secret evidence. It effectively repudiates
the Geneva Conventions, putting American soldiers at risk. The other
bill, written by the three Republican senators who were willing to
defy the White House, preserves the conventions and creates a
respectable trial process. But it defines "illegal enemy combatant" so
broadly that the administration could apply it to almost any foreigner
it chose, including legal US residents. Both bills choke off judicial
review and allow even those acquitted by a military tribunal to be
held indefinitely. [On problems with Sen. Warner's alternative, see
Brecher/Smith, "Torture and the Content of our Character,"
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20061002/brecher -JFP.]

4) Religious leaders target Lieberman in torture debate
Raw Story, 09/19/2006 @ 1:22 pm
http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/Lieberman_pressured_to_oppose_torture_laws_0919.html
See also:
The War on Torture, Katrina vanden Heuvel, The Nation, 09/19/2006
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/notion?bid=15&pid=123093
A coalition of religious leaders in Connecticut has come together to
pressure US Senators Joe Lieberman and Christopher Dodd to come out in
opposition to torture.

5) Dissidents' Detainee Bill May Face Filibuster
Frist Warns GOP Opponents of Bush's Proposal They Must Accept Two Key
Provisions Charles Babington & Jonathan Weisman, Washington Post,
September 20, 2006; A04
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/19/AR2006091901463.html
Senate Majority Leader Frist signaled yesterday that he and other
White House allies will filibuster a bill dealing with the
interrogation and prosecution of detainees if they cannot persuade a
rival group of Republicans to rewrite key provisions opposed by
President Bush. Frist's chief of staff called the dissidents' bill
"dead." With Congress scheduled to adjourn in nine days, delaying
tactics such as a filibuster could kill the drive to enact detainee
legislation before the Nov. 7 elections. Bush faced more problems in
the House, where GOP moderates Shays, Castle, Leach and Walsh publicly
threw their support behind the bill opposed by the White House. They
told Majority Leader Boehner that any House bill must maintain the
dissidents' principles.

Legislation to authorize Bush's warrantless wiretapping program may be
in more jeopardy. Frist said yesterday that he referred the
warrantless surveillance matter to the Senate Select Committee on
Intelligence for further review and would not bring it up for Senate
consideration until next week. Yesterday's actions significantly
dimmed prospects that Congress can complete its national security
agenda before adjournment. Frist acknowledged that a majority of the
100 senators back the rival group on military commissions but that
there are not enough to block a filibuster, which requires a
super-majority of 60.

Iran
6) U.S. Policy on Iran Evolves Toward Diplomacy
Glenn Kessler, Washington Post, Wednesday, September 20, 2006; A20
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/19/AR2006091901570.html
Before the invasion of Iraq, U.S. officials confidently predicted the
toppling of Saddam Hussein would lead to renewed momentum on the
Israeli-Palestinian peace track. "The road to Jerusalem leads through
Baghdad" was a common refrain. Bush's speech to the General Assembly
showed how much that calculation has changed. With the US ensnarled in
Iraq, war is no longer a viable option. The White House has muddied
what were once clear lines in pursuit of diplomacy. The administration
had firmly demanded that Iran must first suspend its nuclear
activities before the US would join negotiations on the nuclear
programs, but now U.S. officials have acquiesced in a European effort
to find a face-saving way for the talks to begin. U.S. officials are
still pursuing sanctions, and have drafted a sanctions resolution to
be offered at the Security Council. But with allies balking,
negotiations appear more likely than punishment.

Secretary of State Rice hosted her counterparts Tuesday night. Under
the original schedule, the session was supposed to reach decisions on
a sanctions resolution. Undersecretary of State Burns said Tuesday
night the foreign ministers expressed "very strong support" for the EU
negotiations with Iran. "We are seeking a diplomatic solution," he
said, saying the diplomacy is "in extra innings." Bush, in his speech,
also emphasized that U.S. officials "have no objection to Iran's
pursuit of a truly peaceful nuclear power program." This is a reversal
from his first term, when U.S. officials loudly proclaimed that a
country with such vast oil and gas reserves had no need for a nuclear
program. Under pressure from Europeans, the administration dropped
that argument late last year.

7) Iranian Leader Accepts Efforts by Pope to Recast His Remarks
Ian Fisher, New York Times, September 20, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/20/world/europe/20pope.html
President Ahmadinejad suggested Tuesday that Pope Benedict had
satisfactorily "modified" his remarks on Islam, one sign of an easing
of anger since the pope issued an apology on Sunday for having caused
offense with a speech he delivered last week. "We respect the pope and
all those interested in peace and justice," Ahmadinejad said. "I
understand that he has modified the remarks he made." Some Muslims
continued to demand a fuller apology. "Either apologize or don't
come," read banners at a protest in Turkey, which the pope is
scheduled to visit in November.

8) In U.N. Speech, Bush Softens Tone on Iran
President Remains Firm on Nuclear Program; Ahmadinejad Lashes Out at U.S.
Michael Abramowitz & Colum Lynch, Washington Post, September 20, 2006; A12
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/18/AR2006091800196.html
President Bush sought to assure the Iranian people that he wants a
diplomatic solution to the impasse over their country's nuclear
activities but warned that their leaders are obstructing progress by
funding terrorism and pursuing nuclear weapons. Striking a more
conciliatory tone than in previous addresses on the subject, Bush said
the US has no objections to Iran achieving a "truly peaceful nuclear
power program" and told the Iranians that he looks forward "to the day
when you can live in freedom, and America and Iran can be good friends
and close partners in the cause of peace."

9) $50 Million Offer Aims at Curbing Efforts to Make Nuclear Fuel
William J. Broad, New York Times, September 20, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/20/world/20nukes.html
Warren Buffett pledged $50 million to help set up an international
nuclear fuel bank that aspiring powers could turn to for reactor fuel
instead of making it on their own. The aim is to curb the risks of
nuclear proliferation by providing an alternative to the kind of
indigenous production of nuclear fuel that Iran is embarking upon, and
that countries like Argentina, Australia and South Africa have
recently announced plans to pursue. His pledge came at a conference
where nations are exploring how to create multinational fuel banks to
aid nuclear development while avoiding new risks. Multinational banks
and plants are seen as having a security advantage because member
states can watch one another to prevent weapon diversions. Buffett's
pledge is meant to jump-start the creation of a reserve fuel bank run
by the IAEA. Mohamed ElBaradei, director of the IAEA, said Buffett's
pledge "will provide urgent impetus to our efforts to establish
mechanisms for nondiscriminatory, nonpolitical assurances of supply of
fuel for nuclear power plants."

Iraq
10) Doubts Rise on Iraqi Premier's Strength
Edward Wong, New York Times, September 20, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/20/world/middleeast/20maliki.html
Senior Iraqi and American officials are beginning to question whether
Prime Minister Maliki has the political muscle and decisiveness to
hold Iraq together as it hovers on the edge of full civil war. Four
months into his tenure, Maliki has failed to take aggressive steps to
end sectarian strife because they would alienate Shiite leaders in his
government who have large followings and private armies, officials
say. He is also constrained by the need to woo militant Sunni Arabs
connected to the insurgency. Patience among Iraqis is wearing thin.
Many complain that they have seen no improvement in security, the
economy or basic services like electricity. Some Sunni Arab
neighborhoods seem particularly deprived, fueling distrust of the
Shiite-led government. [Juan Cole suggests that U.S. officials have
unrealistic expectations of Maliki and are seeking to deflect blame
onto him for their own failures - JFP.]

11) Iraq Must Act on Security Now, U.S. Advisory Panel Chief Says
Robert Pear, New York Times, September 20, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/20/washington/20policy.html
A leader of a panel studying American policy toward Iraq said Tuesday
that Prime Minister Maliki must take immediate action to improve
security, end sectarian killings, reduce corruption and deliver basic
services if he wants to retain US support. The independent panel, led
by former Representative Lee Hamilton and former Secretary of State
James Baker, said it would make detailed recommendations to President
Bush and Congress after the midterm elections.

Lebanon
12) Lebanon Peacekeepers Met With Skepticism
True Role of U.N. Force Is Subject Of Debate Among Wary Residents
Anthony Shadid, Washington Post, Wednesday, September 20, 2006; A12
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/19/AR2006091901736.html
There are two faces to the U.N. force today in Lebanon. One has a
certain swagger. The other is a contingent of several bored-looking
Italian soldiers in blue berets watching traffic pass, their roadside
stop within eyeshot of Hezbollah's yellow banners. "They're just
standing there," said Muslim Srour, sipping coffee at his gas station.
"We'll take care of them like they're our own children," he said. He
smiled before speaking again. "As long as they treat us like they
would a father," he added.

Palestine
13) Israel Hopes to Complete Its Withdrawal From Lebanon on Friday
Steven Erlanger, New York Times, September 20, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/20/world/middleeast/20mideast.html
Abbas met Monday with the Israeli foreign minister, Tzipi Livni. Livni
said Israel wanted to reopen a dialogue with Abbas. He is trying to
convince Israel and the US that a proposed national unity government
with Hamas will satisfy Western demands that Hamas recognize the right
of Israel to exist, forswear violence and accept prior
Israeli-Palestinian agreements. But a draft political program for a
new government does not mention Israel at all. It speaks of
Palestinians achieving a sovereign state in all territories captured
by Israel in the 1967 war, "using all legitimate means and methods."
It says the new government "shall respect the agreements signed by the
PLO," but "in a manner that protects and safeguards the higher
interests and the rights of the Palestinian people." Such phrases, and
another emphasizing "the right of return" of Palestinian refugees, are
seen by Israel as only a conditional acceptance of a two-state
solution and thus falling short of international demands. [It's not
obvious that emphasizing the "right of return" should be assumed to
undermine acceptance of a two-state solution. Palestinian poll data
suggests that given a choice between return and compensation, most
1948 refugees and their heirs would choose compensation over
resettlement inside Israel, but insist on the principle of the "right
of return" as a matter of historical justice - JFP.]

Egypt
14) Mubarak's Son Proposes Nuclear Program
Michael Slackman & Mona El-Naggar, New York Times, September 20, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/20/world/africa/20egypt.html
Gamal Mubarak, son of Egypt's president, proposed Tuesday that Egypt
pursue nuclear energy, drawing strong applause from the nation's
political elite, while raising expectations that Mubarak is being
positioned to replace his father as president. The speech raised the
prospect of two potentially embarrassing developments for the White
House: a nuclear program in Egypt, recipient of about $2 billion a
year in military and development aid from the US, and Mubarak
succeeding his father, Hosni Mubarak, as president without substantial
political challenge. Raising the topic of Egypt's nuclear ambitions at
a time of tensions over Iran's nuclear activity was received as a
calculated effort to raise the younger Mubarak's profile and to build
public support through a show of defiance toward Washington.

When Bush called for promoting democracy in the Middle East, he looked
to Egypt as a leader in that effort. But the administration has backed
off pressing for democracy in Egypt. Instead, it has witnessed the
country reversing earlier gains, arresting political opposition
figures, beating street demonstrators, locking up bloggers, blocking
creation of political parties and postponing local elections by two
years. Many experts here welcomed Gamal Mubarak's proposal and
dismissed suggestions that it might pose a threat to the West. "Why
should the U.S. assist India in its nuclear program and not Egypt?"
said Hassan Abou Taleb, analyst with the government-financed Ahram
Center. Distance from Washington and pursuit of nuclear power are
actions that could help shore up two of Gamal Mubarak's perceived
shortcomings were he to run for president: lack of a military
background and the perception that he and his father are Washington's
lackeys. The nuclear program might help him win support among the
military and criticism of Washington might help him restore some
credibility with the public.

Yemen
15) Yemen Leader Is Now Paying for Providing Open Election
Hassan M. Fattah, New York Times, September 20, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/20/world/middleeast/20yemen.html
It was supposed to be like other elections in the Arab world: the
president portrays himself as a changed man, the respected opposition
candidate is discredited and the opposition ends with an embarrassing
loss. Yemen's presidential election, however, is proving to be
anything but ordinary. Voters go to the polls Wednesday in a heated
contest pitting voters' desire for change against fear of instability.
It may prove to be one of the most open electoral battles in the
region, analysts say, as President Ali Abdullah Saleh fends off the
biggest electoral challenge of his 28-year rule. His challenger Faisal
bin Shamlan, a former minister, has a reputation of integrity.
Shamlan, backed by the four largest opposition parties, including
Islamists, has promised to fight government corruption and to
distribute authority among Yemen's regions. Government corruption, he
insists, has led to growing militancy. Virtually no one expects
Shamlan to win, but most analysts expect his challenge to embolden the
opposition in future elections, if not to prompt real political
change.

Thailand
16) Leader of Coup in Thailand Sets Timetable
Thomas Fuller, International Herald Tribune, September 20, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/20/world/asia/20cnd-thailand.html
Thailand will probably not restore democracy for at least a year, Gen.
Sondhi Boonyaratkalin, the commander who seized power in a bloodless
coup, announced today. General Sondhi's junta sought to consolidate
its control, banning public gatherings, threatening to shut down or
block telecommunications and urging "farmers and laborers" - many of
whom are strong supporters of the ousted government - to stay out of
politics.

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Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org

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