[Peace-discuss] Just Foreign Policy News, September 27, 2006

[Robert Naiman]

Today's JFP news has an Urbana reference...

Just Foreign Policy News
September 27, 2006
http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/newsroom/index.html

Summary:
U.S.
David Sanger, writing in the New York Times, notes that three years ago,
Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld asked, is our strategy successfully killing or
capturing terrorists faster than new enemies are being created? The newly
declassified National Intelligence Estimate on terrorism concludes that the
administration has failed the Rumsfeld test.

Portions of a National Intelligence Estimate on terrorism the White House
released under pressure on Tuesday  said the invasion and occupation of Iraq
had become a "cause célèbre" for jihadists.

A New York Times editorial says the three declassified pages from the report
told us what any American should already know: he invasion of Iraq was a
cataclysmic disaster. The situation will get worse if American forces leave.
But neither the report nor the president provide any  suggestion about how
to avoid that inevitable disaster.

A panel of European data security officials on Tuesday put off a final
report on the legality of an American program to monitor millions of
international banking transactions. But they agreed to investigate further
whether EU laws were being violated.

Congress Tuesday was moving closer to passage of legislation on the handling
of terrorism suspects while all but giving up hope of agreeing on a final
bill to authorize the administration's eavesdropping program. Democrats
expressed rising concerns about changes to the proposal for military trials.


Three foes of the habeas provision - Senators Specter, Leahy, and Smith -
introduced yesterday an amendment to overturn the administration provision
by allowing foreign nationals in military or CIA custody to challenge the
legality of their detentions after one year.

Juan Cole writes that the real scandal is that the NIE was classified at
all. He notes that Bush repeated that the US was not in Iraq when al-Qaeda
hit the World Trade Center. But that al-Qaeda had other grievances before
does not mean that Bush's invasion and occupation of Iraq cannot now
generate more terrorism. Also, the US was "in Iraq" in the 1990s. It is
estimated that the US/UN sanctions killed 500,000 Iraqi children. This was
something that radical Muslim terrorists of the late 1990s were definitely
exercised about.

Iran
Iran's president vowed Wednesday not to give up the right to nuclear
technology, as EU and Iranian diplomats met to see if Tehran might suspend
uranium enrichment and avoid the threat of sanctions. A European diplomat
confirmed a report from German magazine Der Spiegel, which said the EU3
would be willing to begin preliminary talks with Iran even if it has not
suspended enrichment first.

Iraq
A strong majority of Iraqis want U.S.-led military forces to immediately
withdraw from the country, saying their swift departure would make Iraq more
secure and decrease sectarian violence, according to new polls by the State
Department and independent researchers. In Baghdad, nearly three-quarters of
residents polled said they would feel safer if U.S. and other foreign forces
left Iraq, with 65 percent favoring an immediate pullout.

Palestine
The Israeli human rights group B'Tselem published Wednesday a report on the
bombing of the power plant in Gaza on June 28th. The group concluded that
the Israeli bombing of the plant was a war crime under international law.

John Dugard, UN special rapporteur on Palestinian human rights, criticized
Israel for turning Gaza into "a prison" and criticised Canada, Europe and
the US for cutting funds to the Palestinian Authority.

Afghanistan
Afghanistan suffered two deadly bombings on Tuesday that killed 20 people,
providing another sign of the increasing size and power of suicide attacks
and roadside bombs by insurgents.  Civilians increasingly have been paying
the price of the more frequent and devastating attacks. More than 150
civilians have been killed by suicide bombings this year, the head of the UN
mission in Afghanistan, Tom Koenigs, said recently, before the attacks on
Tuesday.

Turkey
Fifty-six Kurdish mayors stood trial Tuesday, accused in Turkey's latest
freedom-of-speech case on charges of helping terrorists by arguing to keep a
Kurdish TV station on the air. The mayors were indicted after writing a
letter to the Danish Prime Minister asking him not to pull the plug on the
TV station. The mayors pleaded innocent to the charges and defended their
letter as ''free speech.'' A Turkish prosecutor demanded 15 years in prison
for the mayors.

Ecuador
The front-runner in the October 15 presidential election said Monday he is
proud to call Venezuelan President Chavez his friend. He said he would not
extend the U.S. military's use of the Manta air base unless Washington
allowed an Ecuadorean military base in Miami.  Correa, a
U.S.-trainedeconomist with a doctorate from the University of Illinois
at Urbana, said
he would seek to renegotiate Ecuador's foreign debt service, but would not
rule out a moratorium on payments. "The world is recognizing that the IMF
and World Bank have not been a part of the solution, but rather the
problem," he said.

Argentina
President Kirchner and his wife, set out to win support internationally last
week as they have at home, by appearing beholden to no one, the Washington
Post reports. While he was trying to assure New York's financial
establishment Kirchner was crediting his country's recent economic growth to
the fact that his government defies the recommendations of the IMF. When
Cristina Kirchner was pressed to explain Argentina's close ties with
Venezuela's government, she responded: "Nobody tells Argentina which friends
to choose."

Contents:
U.S.
1) Study Doesn't Share Bush's Optimism on Terror Fight
David E. Sanger, New York Times, September 27, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/27/washington/27assess.html
Three years ago, Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld posed a critical question: Is
Washington's strategy successfully killing or capturing terrorists faster
than new enemies are being created? The newly declassified National
Intelligence Estimate on terrorism concludes that the administration has
failed the Rumsfeld test. Nowhere in the assessment is any evidence to
support Bush's assertion this month that "America is winning the war on
terror." While the spread of self-described jihadists is hard to measure,
the report says, the terrorists "are increasing in both number and
geographic dispersion." It says that a continuation of that trend would lead
"to increasing attacks worldwide" and that "the underlying factors fueling
the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities."

2) Backing Policy, President Issues Terror Estimate
Mark Mazzetti, New York Times, September 27, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/27/world/middleeast/27intel.html
Portions of a National Intelligence Estimate on terrorism the White House
released under pressure on Tuesday  said the invasion and occupation of Iraq
had become a "cause célèbre" for jihadists. The report, a comprehensive
assessment of terrorism produced in April by American intelligence agencies,
identified the jihad in Iraq as one of four underlying factors fueling the
spread of the Islamic radicalism, along with entrenched grievances, the slow
pace of reform and pervasive anti-American sentiment.

3) The Fine Art of Declassification
Editorial, New York Times, September 27, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/27/opinion/27wed1.html
It's hard to think of a president more devoted to secrecy than President
Bush. Except when it suits Bush politically to give the public a glimpse of
the secrets. Yesterday he ordered the declassification of a fraction of a
report by US intelligence agencies on the terrorist threat. Bush said he
wanted to release the document so voters would not be confused about
terrorism or the war when they voted for Congressional candidates in
November. But the three declassified pages from what is certainly a
voluminous report told us what any American with a newspaper, television or
Internet connection should already know. The invasion of Iraq was a
cataclysmic disaster. The current situation will get worse if American
forces leave. Unfortunately, neither the report nor the president provide
even a glimmer of a suggestion about how to avoid that inevitable disaster.

4) Europe Panel Defers Report on Bank Data Sifting
Associated Press, September 27, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/27/washington/27swift.html
A panel of European data security officials on Tuesday put off a final
report on the legality of an American program to monitor millions of
international banking transactions. But they said they had "immediate
concerns" about the arrangement. The officials agreed to investigate further
whether EU laws were being violated by a Belgium consortium's sharing of
confidential banking records with American officials. An EU spokesman said
officials would meet in November and would issue an opinion, including
possible recommendations for safeguards that EU governments should adopt to
prevent the improper transfer of private banking records. The November
meeting will also assess an investigation by the Belgian National Bank, to
see whether the banking consortium violated Belgian privacy policies and
similar EU rules. The report is due in a few weeks.

5) Deal Likely on Detainees but Not on Wiretapping
Carl Hulse & Kate Zernike, New York Times, September 27, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/27/washington/27detain.html

Congress Tuesday was moving closer to passage of legislation on the handling
of terrorism suspects while all but giving up hope of agreeing on a final
bill to authorize the administration's eavesdropping program. Lawmakers said
it appeared doubtful that bills covering the NSA's eavesdropping program
could pass both houses and be reconciled before Congress adjourns this
weekend. But Republicans were optimistic about eliminating last-minute
concerns over a separate measure laying out rules for interrogating
terrorism suspects and trying them before military tribunals. They said they
were hoping to send the bill to Bush by the end of the week. Democrats
expressed rising concerns about changes to the proposal that they said went
beyond what Senator Frist, the Republican leader, had described Monday as
merely "technical changes." The changes had been made over the weekend.

In one change, the original language said that a suspect had the right to
"examine and respond to" all evidence used against him. Senators Graham,
Warner and McCain had insisted the provision was necessary to prevent secret
trials. The bill submitted Monday dropped the word "examine," reviving
complaints about secret trials, this time from Democrats. In another, the
compromise said that evidence seized "outside the United States" could be
admitted in court even if it had been obtained without a search warrant, a
provision to deal with the unusual circumstances of seizing evidence on the
battlefield.

The bill introduced Monday dropped the words "outside the United States,"
which Democrats said meant prosecutors could ignore American legal standards
on search warrants within the country. The bill also broadened the
definition of unlawful enemy combatant, from anyone "engaged in hostilities
against the United States" to anyone who "has purposefully and materially
supported hostilities against the United States."

6) Detainee Bill in Final Stages
White House Appears to Be Winning Wide Legal Latitude R. Jeffrey Smith &
Charles Babington, Washington Post, September 27, 2006; A04
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/26/AR2006092601638.html
National security adviser Stephen Hadley met with Republican senators
yesterday in an effort to reach final agreement on legislation that would
govern the military trials of terrorism suspects, but they did not resolve a
dispute over whether the captives should have access to U.S. courts. The
measure nonetheless appears likely to win approval by the time Congress
adjourns at the end of this week. A vote is expected in the House today. The
Senate-White House negotiations centered on what is known as a
"court-stripping" provision that bars U.S. courts from considering habeas
corpus filings by detainees over their confinement and treatment. It affirms
the Bush administration's assertion that it has an incontestable right to
hold persons detained as "unlawful enemy combatants" for the duration of the
battle against terrorism.

"Habeas has to be resolved," and will most likely be addressed on the Senate
floor, Senator Warner said. Senate leadership aides said floor debate could
begin today. Three foes of the habeas provision - Senators Specter, Leahy,
and Smith - introduced yesterday an amendment to overturn the administration
provision by allowing foreign nationals in military or CIA custody to
challenge the legality of their detentions after one year. Human rights
groups and defense lawyers have condemned the administration provision as
unconstitutional. They said it could leave detainees "to rot" in jail. 31
former ambassadors, including 20 who served in Republican administrations,
jointly wrote Congress this week that "to eliminate habeas corpus relief for
the citizens of other countries who have fallen into our hands cannot but
make a mockery" of the administration's efforts to promote democracy. They
also said that it would set a precedent that could jeopardize U.S. diplomats
and military personnel overseas.
Other recent changes to the bill aroused controversy yesterday. In one, the
administration would give the defense secretary wide latitude to depart,
without independent judicial scrutiny, from the rules and detainee
protections the legislation would create. It would allow him to do so
whenever he deems it "practicable or consistent with military or
intelligence activities." Georgetown law professor Neal Katyal, who
represented Hamdan in the case in which the Supreme Court overturned in June
the administration's previous military-trial procedures, said the discretion
is broad enough for the Defense Department to suspend a presumption of
innocence for defendants.
7) Partially Declassified NIE
Juan Cole, Informed Comment, Wednesday, September 27, 2006
http://www.juancole.com/2006/09/partially-declassified-nie-bush-became.html
I want to make 4 basic points:
1) The real scandal is that the NIE was classified at all. It is not enough
that the key judgments have been declassified. They should do the whole
thing.
2) The NIE clearly says that the Iraq War is now the main generator of
terrorism against the US and its allies. It certainly caused the Madrid
train bombings of March 2004 and the London subway bombings of July 2005.
The reaction against the US attack on and occupation of a major Arab Muslim
country like Iraq has been anger throughout the Muslim world. You can see
the rise of anti-US sentiments under Bush most starkly in non-Arab countries
such as Turkey and Indonesia which used to like us.
3) Critics have pointed out that although the NIE said that Bush's Iraq War
has generated more terror against the US and its allies, it also does not
urge an immediate withdrawal from Iraq. But the NIE does not urge "staying
the course" as Bush and others imply. It says that the Salafi Jihadis in
Iraq should ideally be defeated. Bush is not defeating them with his current
policies.
4) Bush repeated that the US was not in Iraq when US embassies in Africa and
the USS Cole were hit by al-Qaeda or in 2001 when al-Qaeda hit the World
Trade Center. This is so stupid even Bush should be ashamed for trotting it
out. First, al-Qaeda had other grievances, including the US military
presence in Saudi Arabia and the Israeli occupation of Jerusalem and its
mistreatment of Palestinians. But that al-Qaeda had these grievances does
not mean that Bush's invasion and occupation of Iraq cannot now generate
more terrorism. Also, the US was "in Iraq" in the 1990s. The US had the
presence in Saudi Arabia in part to fly surveillance and sometimes bombing
raids on Iraq. And the US had gotten the UN to impose a n economic boycott
on Iraq that excluded many medicines from the country. For a while they
could not get chlorine for water purification. It is estimated that the
US/UN sanctions killed 500,000 Iraqi children. This was something that
radical Muslim terrorists of the late 1990s were definitely exercised about.



Iran
8) Ahmadinejad defiant as EU, Iran hold talks
Louis Charbonneau, Reuters, Wednesday, September 27, 2006; 12:27 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/27/AR2006092700339.html
Iran's president vowed Wednesday not to give up the right to nuclear
technology, as EU and Iranian diplomats met to see if Tehran might suspend
uranium enrichment and avoid the threat of sanctions. Ahmadinejad's comments
came as European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana began a meeting
with Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani.

The Washington Times reported this week that Iran was close to a deal that
would include a temporary, 90-day suspension of uranium enrichment and clear
the way for talks on incentives. But Iran dismissed the report as
propaganda. French officials said Larijani offered to consider a temporary
enrichment suspension at a meeting with Solana two weeks ago. Western
diplomats said details of this possible suspension would be discussed at
Wednesday's meeting in Berlin.

A European diplomat confirmed a report from German magazine Der Spiegel,
which said the EU3 would be willing to begin preliminary talks with Iran
even if it has not suspended enrichment first. The condition for starting
such talks would be a positive result from Solana's meetings with Larijani -
in other words, an indication that it would suspend enrichment, he said.
Washington would not join in until a full suspension was in place. "The idea
would be to get Iran back to the negotiating table," the diplomat said.
Other diplomats played down the possibility of a breakthrough at the Berlin
meeting.

Iraq
9) Most Iraqis Favor Immediate U.S. Pullout, Polls Show
Leaders' Views Out of Step With Public
Amit R. Paley, Washington Post, Wednesday, September 27, 2006; A22
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2006/09/27/MNGPOLDIHT1.DTL
A strong majority of Iraqis want U.S.-led military forces to immediately
withdraw from the country, saying their swift departure would make Iraq more
secure and decrease sectarian violence, according to new polls by the State
Department and independent researchers. In Baghdad, nearly three-quarters of
residents polled said they would feel safer if U.S. and other foreign forces
left Iraq, with 65 percent of those asked favoring an immediate pullout.
Another poll by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the
University of Maryland, found 71 percent of Iraqis questioned want the Iraqi
government to ask foreign forces to depart within a year. By large margins,
Iraqis believed that the U.S. government would refuse the request, with 77
percent of those polled saying the US intends keep permanent military bases
in the country.

The stark assessments contrast sharply with views expressed by the
government of Prime Minister al-Maliki. Last week at the UN, President
Talabani said coalition troops should remain in the country until Iraqi
security forces are "capable of putting an end to terrorism and maintaining
stability and security." "Only then will it be possible to talk about a
timetable for the withdrawal of the multinational forces from Iraq," he
said. Recent polls show many Iraqis in nearly every part of the country
disagree.

Palestine
10) B'Tselem: Bombing of Gaza power plant war crime
Human rights group B'Tselem determines bombing of power plant in Gaza
constitutes war crime and was carried out as 'vengeance'
Ynet News (Yedioth Ahronot online), 09.27.06, 09:24
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3308615,00.html
The human rights group B'Tselem published Wednesday a report on the bombing
of the power plant in Gaza on June 28th. Findings show the majority of
residents in the Gaza Strip are only intermittently connected to the power
supply and the power cut has adversely affected medical services throughout
the Strip. The report found: the majority of the urban population is
connected to the water supply for only two to three hours a day and the
sewer system has virtually collapsed; the inability to refrigerate food
supplies has exposed many to risk of food poisoning; and the power cut has
caused severe damage to small businesses dependent on the electrical supply.
The report foresees an increasingly grave situation in the wake of the
severe economic crises prevalent in the Gaza Strip. B'Tselem has determined
the IDF operation was illegal and that according to international
humanitarian law it is deemed a war crime as it constitutes an attack on a
clear civilian target, as well as being "a banned collective punishment."

11) UN says Gaza crisis 'intolerable'
BBC News, Tuesday, 26 September 2006
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5382976.stm
Standards of human rights in the Palestinian territories have fallen to
intolerable new levels, says a UN expert on the Mid-East conflict. John
Dugard said Israel was largely to blame for turning Gaza into "a prison" and
"throwing away the key". He also criticised Canada, Europe and the US for
cutting funds to the Palestinian Authority. Dugard, UN special rapporteur on
Palestinian human rights, said three-quarters of Palestinians in Gaza now
depended on food aid - a result of Israeli military raids, blockades and
demolitions.

Afghanistan
12) Attacks in Afghanistan Grow More Frequent and Lethal
Carlotta Gall, New York Times, September 27, 2006
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/27/world/asia/27afghan.html
Afghanistan suffered two deadly bombings on Tuesday that killed 20 people,
providing another sign of the increasing size and power of suicide attacks
and roadside bombs by insurgents, the New York Times reports.

Turkey
13) Kurdish Mayors Stand Trial in Turkey
Associated Press, September 26, 2006, Filed at 7:58 p.m. ET
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/world/AP-Turkey-Kurds-Trial.html
Fifty-six Kurdish mayors stood trial Tuesday, accused in Turkey's latest
freedom-of-speech case on charges of helping terrorists by arguing to keep a
Kurdish TV station on the air. The Roj television station is banned in
Turkey. It often features leaders of the main outlawed Kurdish guerrilla
group.The mayors from the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party were indicted
after writing a letter to the Danish Prime Minister asking him not to pull
the plug on the TV station. The autonomy-seeking Kurdistan Workers Party, or
PKK, has stepped up its bombings and attacks across Turkey, targeting
civilians and tourists as well as troops. The PKK has been listed by the EU
and the US as a terrorist organization.  Appearing before the court, the
mayors pleaded innocent to the charges and defended their letter as ''free
speech.'' A Turkish prosecutor demanded 15 years in prison for the mayors.

Ecuador
14) Ecuador Candidate Defends Chavez Ties
Gonzalo Solano, Associated Press, Monday, September 25, 2006; 9:00 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/25/AR2006092501191.html
A tough-talking leftist economist and presidential front-runner in the
October 15 election said Monday he is proud to call Venezuelan President
Chavez his friend. Rafael Correa said he would not extend the U.S.
military's use of the Manta air base when the treaty runs out in 2009. "A
symbol of sovereignty is to not have foreign soldiers on national soil," he
said. The only way the U.S. military presence would continue in Ecuador was
if Washington allowed "an Ecuadorean military base in Miami," he said.
Correa said he does not see what the problem is in his friendship with
Chavez. "I am honored by the friendship," he said. "If I am a friend of
Chavez, 'What a mistake!' If I were a friend of George Bush, they would have
elected me man of the year," Correa said.

Correa, a U.S.-trained economist with a doctorate from the University of
Illinois at Urbana, leads his closest challenger Leon Roldos, a center-left
former vice president, in the polls. Correa said he would seek to
renegotiate Ecuador's foreign debt service, but would not rule out a
moratorium on payments to international lenders "if there isn't openness on
the part of the markets, multinationals and governments." "The world is
recognizing that the (International) Monetary Fund and World Bank have not
been a part of the solution, but rather the problem," he said. "Life and
national commitments come first, before the pockets of creditors and
supposed international commitments."

He said Ecuador cannot afford its current $2 billion debt service,
representing 7 percent of the country's gross domestic product. "Ecuador
cannot pay more than 3 percent," he said. Correa said he would overhaul
contracts with foreign oil firms for Ecuador to retain a greater share of
petroleum wealth and expressed hope that Ecuador could eventually abandon
the U.S. dollar as its official currency.

Correa served as outgoing President Palacio's economy minister. Palacio
demanded his resignation in August 2005 for failing to consult him before
publicly lambasting the World Bank over its denial of a $100 million loan.
If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the ballot - or at least 40
percent with a 10-percentage point advantage over the nearest challenger - a
runoff will be held on Nov. 26 between the two top finishers.

Argentina
15) Argentine Power Duo Takes a Defiant Tone
President Kirchner and His Senator Wife Speak Their Minds at Home and Abroad
Monte Reel, Washington Post, Wednesday, September 27, 2006; A20
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/26/AR2006092601617.html
Argentina's two most powerful politicians - President Kirchner and his wife,
Sen. Cristina Kirchner - set out to win support internationally last week
the same way they've won it at home: by appearing beholden to no one. At the
same time he was trying to assure New York's financial establishment that
Argentina will respect the ground rules of global finance, Kirchner was
crediting his country's recent economic growth to the fact that his
government defies the recommendations of the IMF, which he holds partly
responsible for his country's economic collapse in 2001. When Cristina
Kirchner was pressed during political forums to explain Argentina's close
ties with Venezuela's government, she responded: "Nobody tells Argentina
which friends to choose."

--------
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org

Just Foreign Policy is a membership organization devoted to reforming U.S.
foreign policy so that it reflects the values and interests of the majority
of Americans.
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