[Peace-discuss] Iran and irrationality

[Morton K. Brussel]

FYI.

 From the AP ...

Citing Iranian involvement with Iraqi militias and Tehran's nuclear  
ambitions, the Bush administration has shifted to offense in its  
confrontation with Iran — building up the U.S. military in the  
Persian Gulf and promising more aggressive moves against Iranian  
operatives in Iraq and Lebanon.
The behind-the-scenes struggle between the two nations could explode  
into open warfare over a single misstep, analysts and U.S. military  
officials warn.


This is the preeminent, really the only question in American politics  
today: Do we want to go to war with Iran or not? With the escalating  
chaos in Iraq and the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, is it  
in our interests or not to get into a shooting war with Iran? The  
debate over the 'surge' of US troops into Baghdad is significant in  
its own way, but it pales in comparison to this one.

I've always viewed the fears that the White House would try expand  
the war into Iran with a mix of deep skepticism, fascination and  
latent foreboding. Logically, it makes no sense on any number of  
counts. But the last half dozen years has taught us all that that's  
simply not a significant obstacle. There are any number of ridiculous  
gambits I was sure these guys wouldn't try before they did try them.

Again, the 'sensible' interpretation of what's happening right now is  
that the administration is trying to regain control of the situation  
in Iraq. And to further that aim they're rattling their sabres at  
Iran to get them to back off and stop making trouble. That's the  
sensible explanation. But we're not dealing with sensible people. And  
much more important, the folks who are running this show are simply  
too stupid to be trusted to execute such a delicate and perilous feint.

I don't mean they're dumb people. I'm sure they have high IQs. Most  
went to prestigious universities. They have lists of accomplishments.  
But the record of the last six years shows so many mistakes, such a  
record of incapability and incompetence, so many misjudgements, screw- 
ups and boners that there's no other suitable word.

Through plan or imbecility (and most likely, given who were talking  
about, both) they're drifting toward war with Iran.

As I wrote last night, I think the new campaign of anonymous leaks  
suggesting Iranian involvement in the Najaf raid has rather less than  
no credibility. But even if you assumed, for the sake of discussion,  
that it were tied to, say, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and that  
(as the narrative goes) the attack was retaliation for the Erbil raid  
on the Iranian consulate, that still would not change the question we  
face: is it in our national interest to go to war with Iran or not?

Everything flows from the answer to that question. Tits for tats or  
who started what fade into the background. If the answers no, we  
should be calibrating our actions to avoid such an outcome, not  
taking actions likely to provoke it. We need a regional plan to walk  
this mess back from the brink rather than simply yanking every thread  
on this already frayed fabric and watching it disintegrate in front  
of us.

We've heard a few squawks and warnings from members of Congress. But  
now is the time for members of the House and the Senate to get  
serious about asserting some control over this rapid descent.

I've said this before. But perhaps it seems like hyperbole. So I'll  
say it again. The president's interests are now radically disjoined  
from the country's. We can handle a setback like Iraq. It really is a  
big disaster. But America will certainly surive it. President Bush --  
in the sense of his legacy and historical record -- won't. It's all  
Iraq for him. And Iraq is all disaster. So, from his perspective  
(that is to say, through the prism of his interests rather than the  
country's -- which he probably can't separate) reckless gambits aimed  
at breaking out of this ever-tightening box make sense.

Think of it like this. He's a death row prisoner concocting a  
thousand-to-one plan to break out of prison. For him, those are good  
odds. The rest of us are doing three months for disorderly conduct.  
And he's trying to rope us into his harebrained scheme. Like I said,  
his interests are very different from ours.

Speak up. We're on the edge of the abyss.

-- Josh Marshall
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