[Peace-discuss] Fwd: Darfur "C. G. Estabrook"

Thu Jan 11 23:58:08 CST 2007

There can only be a political solution to the crisis. You will not find a 
reasonable human being who would disagree. I don't think you understand what 
is involved in securing a political solution, though, but I know Alex does, 
which is how I know you are using his statements out of context.

Political solution? Yes. That involves negotiation.

Putting on my IR hat, what is the "negotiating space" in the parlance of 
conflict resolution? While the people of Darfur suffer, the rebels of Darfur 
fight against "marginalization", which is real. So what do the rebels want 
want? A say in their government. Access to the wealth created by the export 
of oil, just as the South had to fight decades to get, at the cost of 
millions of lives.

What does the GoS want? They want not to do that, and would prefer the 
people of Darfur disappear. So what is this political solution that you keep 
alluding to? I've been spending 3 years on this and am suprised I missed it.

The negotiating space is zero, Carl. ZERO. The only way the space opens up 
is by either:

1. Convincing the people of Darfur that their Sudanese citizenship does not 
afford them the rights and privledges of that citizenship, or human beings 
for that matter  (i.e., convince them that abject poverty and brutual 
repression is not so bad if you just look at it right, so they should 
probably just stop fighting); or

2. Convince the GoS that there is no military solution to Darfur as they've 
been pursuing for 4+ years. But here's the catch: there *IS* a military 
solution. The military solution is the "draining of the pond" 
counterinsurgency tactic. Kill civilians. Lots of them. I mean LOTS. 
Terrorize them. Bomb them, rape them, force them to flee their homes. Just 
the civlians. Empty Darfur as best you can, and kill whatever is left. Just 
empty it out. They don't all have to die, but they gotta go elsewhere. And 
then the conflict is over, Carl. PEACE! Thats the natural genesis of the 
conflict. Of all conflicts that are as lopsided as this one. That is what 
likely would have happened if the international community didn't finally 
wake up (though they've yet to get out of bed), 2 years into the conflict 
and start making "oh thats not good" overtures to Khartoum. And these "Save 
Darfur" people (who by the way you characterize them regularly liaise with 
the inner rings of the pentagon) were responsible for the eventual awareness 
(in concert with NGOs such as HRW and AI).

Rather, what you have to do is convince the GoS that there are costs 
associated with this type of activity that may make it not so attractive. 
And if it is not so attractive, then the negotiating space opens up. And 
then, and ONLY then, can there be a political process. So long as Khartoum 
sees no costs associated with its activity in Darfur, **why the hell would 
it stop, and give access to wealth and civic life to those Darfur tribes?**  
Why would it? It is the only response I am soliciting from you, Carl. I very 
much would like to hear your thoughts on why the GoS would stop the killing 
in Darfur as the situation exists today. Why would it stop and pursue a 
political peace that wouldn't be violated in short order? What is its 
motivation to do so?

US citizens need to pressure their government to enagage (through legal, 
international mechanisms, and international institutions) Khartoum in a way 
that will associate costs with continued violence. That is, carrot and stick 
them into negotiating, rather than pursuing the "kill or displace everyone" 
option that I think you likely probably don't support. Provide incentives 
and the potentiality for punative measures. Thats right, punative measures. 
Working with China, use oil exportation as leverage. Threaten them wrt oil. 
China is a natural partner for the "Save Darfur" movement wrt Sudan, Carl. 
Amnesty, for one, is engaging them, as well as a few other advocacy orgs I 
am aware of. Sanctions. THATS RIGHT, SANCTIONS. As is, military equipment 
arrives at the Port of Sudan, and guess where it immediately goes? 
Individuals in Khartoum who are responsible for crimes against humanity must 
pay for these crimes. That is a pretty big part of the "justice" in the 
African peace and justice movement. Prevent these people from leaving their 
country by way of a SC resolution. Isolate the individuals. Sieze the assets 
of the perpetrators. Support the ICC, and help them secure and enforce 
indictments and arrest warrants.

You might ask, aren't these examples of coercion? Yes, it is coercion. But 
coercion, unlike violence, is morally defensible. Especially if it prevents 
violence. So yes, the international community should "bully" the poor 
Sudanese government, but the alternative is death, and destruction, and 
long-running violence; the alternative is a military solution. And it *is* a 
solution, it is just morally reprehensible. If the international community 
had acted forcefully enough, not a single additional person would have to 
die--"innocent" or otherwise. Not even the perpetrators who must be handed 
over to the Hauge to face justice would be killed.

So long as the international community, the US included, continues a 
deferential relationship with Khartoum, we are unlikely to see a political 
process. The USG would much rather not have to deal with Darfur and have it 
affect Washington-Khartoum relations, but those of us concerned with Darfur 
who actually *understand* the USG-GoS relationship are forcing their (the 
USG's) hands. I will tell you right now that Alex does not see a political 
solution developing with disengagement by the "international community" to 
include the US and UN. Far from it. The work we've accomplished in 
pressuring various governments has gotten us here. Which is better than 
where it wouldve been otherwise. But it is still not enough. It is far too 
easy for Khartoum to say "ok, lets renegotiate" and renege 6 moths or 2 
years down the road, as it did with the DPA. There have to be real 
solutions, and that will invariably invlove a capable UN monitoring force to 
observe the ceasefire. How does it get in? I do not know. Carrots and 
sticks, I am sure. But no one is suggesting they fight there way in. NO ONE.

If you want a political solution, stop deriding every stick that gets 
brought up. It is the promise of carrots and threat of sticks that compell 
behavior. Not the actual sticks.

peace
se

>  >
>  > On Jan 11, 2007, at 12:37 PM, C. G. Estabrook wrote:
>  >
>  >> As the US openly attacks Somalia with a proxy and even its own
>airpower, thinking about what should be done about the enormities in
>Darfur must take into account US policy in the region (and the motives
>of the "Save Darfur" movement).  Is the US using "genocide" in Darfur as
>it used "genocide" (and the following war) in Kosovo, to promote its
>imperial policy?  The result of Clinton's cynical "humanitarian
>intervention" in 1999 was to make matters worse.
>  >>
>  >> "Military intervention won't stop the killing. Those who are
>clamouring for troops to fight their way into Darfur are suffering from
>a salvation delusion. It's a simple reality that UN troops can't stop an
>ongoing war ... Moreover, the idea of Bush and Blair acting as global
>moral arbiters doesn't travel well. The crisis in Darfur is political
>... is a civil war, and like all wars it needs a political settlement."
>- Alex de Waal
>  >>
>  >> http://peacejournalism.com/ReadArticle.asp?ArticleID=13026
>  >>
>  >>
>  >> Morton K. Brussel wrote:
>  >>> I think this is a useful memorandum from Al Kagan. --mkb
>  >>> Begin forwarded message:
>  >>>> *From: *Alfred Kagan <akagan at uiuc.edu <mailto:akagan at uiuc.edu>>
>*Date: *January 11, 2007 8:58:49 AM CST *To: *"Morton K. Brussel"
><brussel4 at insightbb.com <mailto:brussel4 at insightbb.com>> *Subject: 
>**Darfur*
>  >>>
>------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>
>
>------------------------------
>
>Message: 7
>Date: Fri, 12 Jan 2007 04:06:33 +0000
>From: n.dahlheim at mchsi.com
>Subject: [Peace-discuss] Sociologist and urban planner James Howard
>	Kunstler	on Mideast oil
>To: peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net
>Message-ID:
>	<011220070406.27020.45A70948000B7B4F0000698C219792676103010CD2079C080C03BF03070A0804080E0BD202 at mchsi.com>
>
>
>                          From his website about the Clusterfuck nation of 
>suburban sprawl
>
>
>The Daily Grunt (if I have anything to say)
>
>January 11, 2007
>Okay, so the American adventure in Iraq is a fiasco. This is self-evident. 
>The Iraqis exchanged a tyrant
>for a tyranny of factional violence. A democratically elected government 
>was a nice idea, but somehow
>it can't prevent fifty to a hundred bodies turning up every day with holes 
>drilled in their heads. Not so
>nice. What to do? President Bush still favors the "Dodge City" approach -- 
>using the US Military as
>marshalls to clean out the "bad guys." The crux of his argument last night 
>was to prepare Iraqi
>marshalls (i.e. the Iraqi police and military) to take up the job 
>themselves. However, the Iraqi police
>seem to be completely infiltrated by sectarian interests and are themselves 
>acting a death squads --
>that is, carrying out the very violence that the police would theoretically 
>be charged with stopping. The
>Iraqi army is a weaker force which could present exactly the same problem 
>if it was given more
>weaponry. The US still has strategic interests in this part of the world. 
>It would not be a good thing for
>Iran to gain control over the southern Iraqi oil fields. It would not be a 
>good thing for Shia
>fundamentalism to be tempted to destablize the rest of the Arab world. The 
>American public complains
>about this policing role in the Middle East, but is the American public 
>prepared to do without Middle
>East oil?
>
>
>
>------------------------------
>
>_______________________________________________
>Peace-discuss mailing list
>Peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net
>http://lists.chambana.net/cgi-bin/listinfo/peace-discuss
>
>
>End of Peace-discuss Digest, Vol 36, Issue 31
>*********************************************

_________________________________________________________________
Find sales, coupons, and free shipping, all in one place!  MSN Shopping 
Sales & Deals 
http://shopping.msn.com/content/shp/?ctid=198,ptnrid=176,ptnrdata=200639