[Peace-discuss] Fwd: Cheney gaining influence on Iran: Guardian

[Barbara kessel]

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Michael Lynn <mlynn226 at gmail.com>
Date: Jul 16, 2007 9:30 AM
Subject: Cheney gaining influence on Iran: Guardian


>From today's Guardian:

Cheney pushes Bush to act on Iran

 · Military solution back in favour as Rice loses out
· President 'not prepared to leave conflict unresolved'

 Ewen MacAskill in Washington and Julian Borger
Monday July 16, 2007
The Guardian


 While Dick Cheney, left, favours military threats, Condoleezza Rice,
centre, prefers diplomacy. George Bush, right, has sided with Cheney.
Photograph: Evan Vucci/AP



The balance in the internal White House debate over Iran has shifted
back in favour of military action before President George Bush leaves
office in 18 months, the Guardian has learned.

The shift follows an internal review involving the White House, the
Pentagon and the state department over the last month. Although the
Bush administration is in deep trouble over Iraq, it remains focused
on Iran. A well-placed source in Washington said: "Bush is not going
to leave office with Iran still in limbo."



Article continues ________________________________

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 The White House claims that Iran, whose influence in the Middle East
has increased significantly over the last six years, is intent on
building a nuclear weapon and is arming insurgents in Iraq and
Afghanistan.

The vice-president, Dick Cheney, has long favoured upping the threat
of military action against Iran. He is being resisted by the secretary
of state, Condoleezza Rice, and the defence secretary, Robert Gates.

Last year Mr Bush came down in favour of Ms Rice, who along with
Britain, France and Germany has been putting a diplomatic squeeze on
Iran. But at a meeting of the White House, Pentagon and state
department last month, Mr Cheney expressed frustration at the lack of
progress and Mr Bush sided with him. "The balance has tilted. There is
cause for concern," the source said this week.

Nick Burns, the undersecretary of state responsible for Iran and a
career diplomat who is one of the main advocates of negotiation, told
the meeting it was likely that diplomatic manoeuvring would still be
continuing in January 2009. That assessment went down badly with Mr
Cheney and Mr Bush.

"Cheney has limited capital left, but if he wanted to use all his
capital on this one issue, he could still have an impact," said
Patrick Cronin, the director of studies at the International Institute
for Strategic Studies.

The Washington source said Mr Bush and Mr Cheney did not trust any
potential successors in the White House, Republican or Democratic, to
deal with Iran decisively. They are also reluctant for Israel to carry
out any strikes because the US would get the blame in the region
anyway.

"The red line is not in Iran. The red line is in Israel. If Israel is
adamant it will attack, the US will have to take decisive action," Mr
Cronin said. "The choices are: tell Israel no, let Israel do the job,
or do the job yourself."

Almost half of the US's 277 warships are stationed close to Iran,
including two aircraft carrier groups. The aircraft carrier USS
Enterprise left Virginia last week for the Gulf. A Pentagon spokesman
said it was to replace the USS Nimitz and there would be no overlap
that would mean three carriers in Gulf at the same time.

No decision on military action is expected until next year. In the
meantime, the state department will continue to pursue the diplomatic
route.

Sporadic talks are under way between the EU foreign policy chief,
Javier Solana, and Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, on the
possibility of a freeze in Iran's uranium enrichment programme. Tehran
has so far refused to contemplate a freeze, but has provisionally
agreed to another round of talks at the end of the month.

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei,
has said that there are signs of Iran slowing down work on the
enrichment plant it is building in Natanz. Negotiations took place in
Tehran last week between Iranian officials and the IAEA, which is
seeking a full accounting of Iran's nuclear activities before Tehran
disclosed its enrichment programme in 2003. The agency's deputy
director general, Olli Heinonen, said two days of talks had produced
"good results" and would continue.

At the UN, the US, Britain and France are trying to secure agreement
from other security council members for a new round of sanctions
against Iran. The US is pushing for economic sanctions that would
include a freeze on the international dealings of another Iranian bank
and a mega-engineering firm owned by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
Russia and China are resisting tougher measures.