[Peace-discuss] Attack Iran?

[Morton K. Brussel]

 From the Financial Times:

US strike on Iran ‘not being prepared’

By Demetri Sevastopulo, Daniel Dombey and Andrew Ward in Washington

Published: November 12 2007 00:01 | Last updated: November 12 2007 00:01

The Pentagon is not preparing a pre-emptive attack on Iran in spite  
of an increase in bellicose rhetoric from Washington, according to  
senior officers.

Admiral William Fallon, head of Central Command, which oversees  
military operations in the Middle East, told the Financial Times that  
while dealing with Iran was a “challenge”, a strike was not “in the  
offing”.

“None of this is helped by the continuing stories that just keep  
going around and around and around that any day now there will be  
another war which is just not where we want to go,” he said.

“Getting Iranian behaviour to change and finding ways to get them to  
come to their senses and do that is the real objective. Attacking  
them as a means to get to that spot strikes me as being not the first  
choice in my book.”

Adm Fallon did not rule out the possibility of a strike at some  
point. But his comments served as a shot across the bows of hawks who  
are arguing for imminent action. They also echoed the views of the  
senior brass that military action is currently unnecessary, and  
should only be considered as an absolute last resort.

In recent months, President George W. Bush and his top officials have  
made a string of tough statements that have fuelled speculation that  
the US was preparing to strike Iran over its nuclear programme. Adm  
Fallon declined to comment specifically on whether the US rhetoric  
was feeding the speculation, but said that “generally, the bellicose  
comments are not particularly helpful”.

“That said we have to make sure that there is no mistake here on the  
part of the Iranians about our resolve in tending to business in the  
region,” said Adm Fallon. “There has got to be some combination of  
strength and willingness to engage. How to come up with the right  
combination of that is the real trick.”

Several senior active and retired miltary officers told the FT that  
the Pentagon believes striking Iran at this point would be a  
strategic mistake, as even a limited air strike could spark a broader  
conflict.

“The US might think in terms of a limited strike but military  
officers like to point out that the enemy has a vote,” said Jo-Anne  
Hart, an Iran expert at Brown University who consults for the  
military. Retired General Anthony Zinni, a former Centcom commander,  
said the US military was “stretched too thin” to fight a protracted  
war with Iran.

Retired Gen John Abizaid, who preceeded Adm Fallon, recently said the  
US should avoid a war with Iran, which would be “devastating for  
everybody”. He added that the US should do everything to prevent Iran  
getting a nuclear weapon, but said Washington could live with that  
outcome if it happened.

In another sign that the Pentagon is trying to reduce tensions with  
Iran, the US military this week released nine Iranians it had been  
holding in Iraq. The move came after Robert Gates, defence secretary,  
confirmed that Tehran had told the Iraqi government it would be  
willing to stop sending weapons to militias in Iraq.

Speaking to the FT before the release, Adm Fallon said there had  
“certainly been a downturn” in roadside bomb attacks on US forces,  
but that the “jury is still out” on whether Iran had reduced its  
support for militias in Iraq.

“We need to see them do something along the lines of ‘we are serious  
about having a dialogue’ and then maybe we can do something,” he added.
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