[Peace-discuss] British polling firm reports > 1 million Iraqi deaths

[Robert Naiman]

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From: Patrick McElwee


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PRESS RELEASE



More than 1,000,000 Iraqis murdered since 2003 invasion



In the week in which General Patraeus reports back to US Congress on
the impact the recent 'surge' is having in Iraq, a new poll reveals
that more than 1,000,000 Iraqi citizens have been murdered since the
invasion took place in 2003.    Previous estimates, most noticeably
the one published in the Lancet in October 2006, suggested almost half
this number (654,965 deaths).



These findings come from a poll released today by O.R.B., the British
polling agency that have been tracking public opinion in Iraq since
2005.  In conjunction with their Iraqi fieldwork agency a
representative sample of 1,461 adults aged 18+ answered the following
question:-



Q       How many members of your household, if any, have died as a
result of the conflict in Iraq since 2003 (ie as a result of violence
rather than a natural death such as old age)?  Please note that I mean
those who were actually living under your roof.



None     78%

One death  16%

Two deaths  5%

Threedeaths 1%

Four+ deaths    0.002%





Given that from the 2005 census there are a total of 4,050,597
households this data suggests a total of 1,220,580 deaths since the
invasion in 2003.



Detailed analysis (which is available on our website) indicates that
almost one in two households in Baghdad have lost a family member,
significantly higher than in any other area of the country.  The
governorates of Diyala (42%) and Ninewa (35%) were next.



The poll also questioned the surviving relatives on the method in
which their loved ones were killed.   It reveals that 48% died from a
gunshot wound, 20% from the impact of a car bomb, 9% from aerial
bombardment, 6% as a result of an accident and 6% from another
blast/ordnance.  This is significant because more often that not it is
car bombs and aerial bombardments that make the news – with gunshots
rarely in the headlines.



As well as a murder rate that now exceeds the Rwanda genocide from
1994 (800,000 murdered), not only have more than one million been
injured but our poll calculates that of the millions of Iraqis that
have fled their neighbourhoods, 52% have moved within Iraq but 48%
have crossed its borders, with Syria taking the brunt of refugees.



And for those left in Iraq, although 81% may describe the availability
of basic groceries such as bread and fresh vegetables as "very/fairly
good", more than one in two (54%) consider them to be "expensive".

Note:

The opinion poll was conducted by O.R.B. and the survey details are as follows:



•       Results are based face-to-face interviews amongst a nationally
representative sample of 1720 adults aged 18+ throughout Iraq.

•       The standard margin of error on the sample size is +2.4%

•       The methodology uses multi-stage random probability sampling
and covers fifteen of the eighteen governorates within Iraq.  For
security reasons Karbala and Al Anbar were not included.  Irbil was
excluded as the authorities refused our field team a permit.

•       Interviews conducted August 12th – 19th 2007.

•       Full results and data tabulations are available at
www.opinion.co.uk/newsroom.aspx

•       O.R.B. are full members of the British Polling Council and
abide by its rules

Contacts:

Johnny Heald                            Munqeth Daghir

Managing Director, ORB          Managing Director, Baghdad

+44 207 611 5270                        +962 799672229

07973 600308


-- 
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
http://www.justforeignpolicy.org

Just Foreign Policy's current estimate of Iraqi deaths due to violence
since the U.S. invasion - now more than a million:
http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/iraq/iraqdeaths.html