[Peace-discuss] Climate change

[Laurie at advancenet.net]

Nick,

Not to worry; the parties in authority have found an easy remedy to the
problem.  They will forthwith redefine the benchmark tipping point from 2
degrees to 10 degrees, thereby eliminating the immediate problem and putting
everyone's mind to rest.  After all, the parties in authority have been
doing this sort of redefinition of problems and situations successfully for
years.  Democracy is good except when it does not serve our interests then
it is no longer democracy; the same is true for dictatorships and tyranny.
Why should the climate be any different?  It makes no difference.  In the
words of Keynes, "in the long run, we are all dead." :-)



> -----Original Message-----
> From: peace-discuss-bounces at lists.chambana.net [mailto:peace-discuss-
> bounces at lists.chambana.net] On Behalf Of n.dahlheim at mchsi.com
> Sent: Thursday, September 20, 2007 8:53 PM
> To: Peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net
> Subject: Re: [Peace-discuss] Climate change
> 
> Climate change is the real threat to international peace and security--
> -a threat equal to or greater than
> nuclear war, and one that could trigger nuclear war in and of itself---
> massive droughts, plagues,
> famines, and floods all could trigger massive regional political
> destabilization....
> 
> 
> 'Too late to avoid global warming,' say scientists By Cahal Milmo
> Published: 19
> September 2007   THE INDEPENDENT
> 
> A rise of two degrees centigrade in global temperatures - the point
> considered to be the threshold for catastrophic climate change which
> will
> expose millions to drought, hunger and flooding - is now "very
> unlikely" to
> be avoided, the world's leading climate scientists said yesterday.
> 
> The latest study from the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on
> Climate
> Change (IPCC) put the inevitability of drastic global warming in the
> starkest terms yet, stating that major impacts on parts of the world -
> in
> particular Africa, Asian river deltas, low-lying islands and the Arctic
> -
> are unavoidable and the focus must be on adapting life to survive the
> most
> devastating changes.
> 
> For more than a decade, EU countries led by Britain have set a rise of
> two
> degrees centigrade or less in global temperatures above pre-industrial
> levels as the benchmark after which the effects of climate become
> devastating, with crop failures, water shortages, sea-level rises,
> species
> extinctions and increased disease.
> 
> Two years ago, an authoritative study predicted there could be as
> little as
> 10 years before this "tipping point" for global warming was reached,
> adding
> a rise of 0.8 degrees had already been reached with further rises
> already
> locked in because of the time lag in the way carbon dioxide - the
> principal
> greenhouse gas - is absorbed into the atmosphere.
> 
> The IPCC said yesterday that the effects of this rise are being felt
> sooner
> than anticipated with the poorest countries and the poorest people set
> to
> suffer the worst of shifts in rainfall patterns, temperature rises and
> the
> viability of agriculture across much of the developing world.
> 
> In its latest assessment of the progress of climate change, the body
> said:
> "If warming is not kept below two degrees centigrade, which will
> require the
> strongest mitigation efforts, and currently looks very unlikely to be
> achieved, the substantial global impacts will occur, such as species
> extinctions, and millions of people at risk from drought, hunger,
> flooding."
> 
> Under the scale of risk used by IPCC, the words "very unlikely" mean
> there
> is just a one to 10 per cent chance of limiting the global temperature
> rise
> to two degrees centigrade or less.
> 
> Professor Martin Parry, a senior Met Office scientist and co-chairman
> of the
> IPCC committee which produced the report, said he believed it would now
> be
> "very difficult" to achieve the target and that governments need to
> combine
> efforts to "mitigate" climate change by reducing CO2 emissions with
> "adaptation" to tackle active consequences such as crop failure and
> flooding.
> 
> Speaking at the Royal Geographical Society, he said: "Ten years ago we
> were
> talking about these impacts affecting our children and our
> grandchildren.
> Now it is happening to us."
> 
> "Even if we achieve a cap at two degrees, there is a stock of major
> impacts
> out there already and that means adaptation. You cannot mitigate your
> way
> out of this problem... The choice is between a damaged world or a
> future
> with a severely damaged world."
> 
> The IPCC assessment states that up to two billion people worldwide will
> face
> water shortages and up to 30 per cent of plant and animal species would
> be
> put at risk of extinction if the average rise in temperature stabilises
> at
> 1.5C to 2.5C.
> 
> Professor Parry said developed countries needed to help the most
> affected
> regions, which include sub-Saharan Africa and major Asian river deltas
> with
> improved technology for irrigation, drought-resistant crop strains and
> building techniques.
> 
> Rajendra Pachauri, the chairman of the IPCC, said that 2015 was the
> last
> year in which the world could afford a net rise in greenhouse gas
> emissions,
> after which "very sharp reductions" are required.
> 
> Dr Pachauri said the ability of the world's most populous nations to
> feed
> themselves was already under pressure, citing a study in India which
> showed
> that peak production of wheat had already been reached in one region.
> 
> Campaigners said the IPCC findings brought added urgency to the EU's
> efforts
> to slash emissions. John Sauven, executive director of Greenpeace,
> said:
> "The EU needs to adopt a science-based cap on emissions, ditch plans
> for
> dirty new coal plants and nuclear power stations that will give tiny
> emission cuts at enormous and dangerous cost, end aviation expansion
> and ban
> wasteful products like incandescent lightbulbs."
> 
> *Plus two degrees: the consequences*
> 
> *Arica:* Between 350 and 600 million people will suffer water shortages
> or
> increased competition for water. Yields from agriculture could fall by
> half
> by 2020 while arid areas will rise by up to 8 per cent. The number of
> sub-Saharan species at risk of extinction will rise by at least 10 per
> cent.
> 
> *Asia:* Up to a billion people will suffer water shortages as supplies
> dwindle with the melting of Himalayan glaciers. Maize and wheat yields
> will
> fall by up to 5 per cent in India; rice crops in China will drop by up
> to 12
> per cent. Increased risk of coastal flooding.
> 
> *Australia/New Zealand:* Between 3,000 and 5,000 more heat-related
> deaths a
> year. Water supplies will no longer be guaranteed in parts of southern
> and
> eastern Australia by 2030. Annual bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef.
> 
> *Europe:* Warmer temperatures will increase wheat yields by up to 25
> per
> cent in the north but water availability will drop in the south by up
> to a
> quarter. Heatwaves, forest fires and extreme weather events such as
> flash
> floods will be more frequent. New diseases will appear.
> 
> *Latin America:* Up to 77 million people will face water shortages and
> tropical glaciers will disappear. Tropical forests will become savanna
> and
> there will be increased risk of coastal flooding in low-lying areas
> such as
> El Salvador and Guyana.
> 
> *North America:* Crop yields will increase by up to 20 per cent due to
> warmer temperatures but economic damage from extreme weather events
> such as
> Hurricane Katrina will continue increasing.
> 
> *Polar regions:* The seasonal thaw of permafrost will increase by 15
> per
> cent and the overall extent of the permafrost will shrink by about 20
> per
> cent. Indigenous communities such as the Inuit face loss of traditional
> lifestyle.
> 
> *Small islands:* Low-lying islands are particularly vulnerable to
> rising sea
> levels with the Maldives already suffering land loss.
> 
> _______________________________________________
> Peace-discuss mailing list
> Peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net
> http://lists.chambana.net/cgi-bin/listinfo/peace-discuss