[Peace-discuss] Poll on Attitudes Toward US in Arab World

[Brussel Morton K.]

Poll results:

  	
April 15, 2008
Attitudes Toward US Worsen in Arab World
by Jim Lobe

Despite renewed U.S. efforts to achieve an Israeli-Palestinian peace  
agreement this year, popular views of the United States in the Arab  
world have actually worsened since 2006, according to a major new  
survey [.pdf] of public opinion in six Arab states.

Nearly two-thirds, or 64 percent, of more than 4,000 respondents in  
Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab  
Emirates (UAE) said they held a "very unfavorable" attitude of the  
United States, up from 57 percent in late 2006, while 19 percent more  
said their views were "somewhat unfavorable" – roughly comparable to  
the results of 17 months ago.

At the same time, support for Iran and its nuclear program appears to  
have risen over the same period, according to the new survey, the  
sixth in a series designed by University of Maryland Prof. Shibley  
Telhami and carried out by Zogby International since 2002.

The poll found that two-thirds of the Arab public (67 percent)  
believes Tehran has the right to pursue its nuclear program and that  
international pressure to freeze it should cease. That compares to 61  
percent who took the same position in 2006.

Remarkably, nearly three out of four Saudi respondents said that if  
Iran acquired nuclear weapons, it would have a "positive" influence  
on the region, while 51 percent of UAE respondents agreed.  
Pluralities in Morocco and Egypt took the same position, while  
pluralities of roughly one-third in Lebanon and Jordan said Tehran's  
acquisition of a nuclear weapon would make no difference.

The new survey also found that fears regarding both U.S. and Israeli  
designs in the region have also increased over the past 17 months,  
despite the length of time that has passed since the summer 2006  
Israel-Hezbollah war, which inflamed anti-Israeli and anti-Western  
opinion throughout the region.

Asked to name two countries that, in their view, posed the "biggest  
threat" to them, a whopping 95 percent and 88 percent of respondents  
named Israel and the U.S., respectively. That compared to 85 percent  
and 72 percent, respectively, in late 2006.

By comparison, the sense of threat posed by Iran appears to have  
diminished over the same period. While 11 percent of Arab respondents  
named Iran as one of the two greatest threats in late 2006, only  
seven percent did so in the most recent survey.

The survey, which was conducted in all six countries last month, is  
certain to be greeted with considerable dismay here in the U.S.  
capital where policymakers had been cheered by some recent polling.  
One 23-nation survey released by BBC earlier this month suggested  
that Washington's image around the globe had bottomed out last year  
and that the greater emphasis the George W. Bush administration has  
placed on diplomacy, rather than war and military threats, during its  
second term, as well as reduced violence in Iraq, had begun to pay  
off, at least in public diplomacy terms.

But Telhami's annual Arab public opinion poll is highly regarded  
among Arabist scholars and public opinion specialists here who note  
that its consistency of methodology and questions over an unusually  
long period of time has given it considerable credibility. Telhami,  
an expert on Arab media, holds the Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and  
Development at the University of Maryland and serves as a senior  
fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings  
Institution, a major think tank here.

The survey found that while views on some issues varied among the six  
countries, cynicism about U.S. motivations and policies was fairly  
consistent. Eighty percent said their views of the U.S. are formed  
more by U.S. "policies" than by U.S. "values" – up from 70 percent  
who took that position in 2006.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents (65 percent) said they don't believe  
that democracy is a real objective in the region, while 20 percent  
said it is an important objective but Washington is going about it  
the wrong way.

A 36-percent plurality said they did not believe reports that  
violence in Iraq has been significantly reduced over the past year,  
while 31 percent said any reduction of violence that has been  
achieved has little to do with the "surge" of U.S. forces there and  
that, in any event, it was only a matter of time before violence  
increases. Only 6 percent of respondents said they believed the surge  
was working and would enhance the chances of a stable political  
settlement.

Asked what they believe would happen if the U.S. quickly withdrew its  
forces, 61 percent said Iraqis would find a way to bridge their  
differences – up from 44 percent in 2006. Only 15 percent said civil  
war in Iraq would expand rapidly, down from 24 percent in 2006.

Respondents in Lebanon (88 percent), Jordan (87 percent), and Saudi  
Arabia (66 percent) were particularly optimistic that Iraqis would  
reach a peaceful settlement if the U.S. withdrew its forces quickly.

Overall, four out of five respondents said they believe that Iraqis  
are worse off as a result of the U.S. invasion. Only two percent said  
they believed that Iraqis were better off.

The survey found a sharp rise in the percentage of respondents,  
particularly in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who identified the  
Palestinian cause as among their three most important public issues.  
Eight-six percent of all respondents named Palestine in that context,  
up from 77 percent in 2006 and 69 percent in 2005.

At the same time, however, a growing majority was found to be  
increasingly pessimistic about prospects for a two-state solution  
based on Israel's 1967 borders. Fifty-five percent overall said they  
believe the collapse of prospects for such a solution will likely  
lead to a state of "intense conflict for years to come." Views on the  
conflict were especially pessimistic in Lebanon and Jordan.

Asked which U.S. presidential candidate would have the best chance to  
advance peace in the Middle East, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama gained  
the most backing with 18 percent, followed by Sen. Hillary Clinton  
(13 percent), and John McCain (4 percent). But 20 percent of  
respondents said they weren't following the U.S. elections, and a  
plurality of 32 percent said the policy will be the same regardless  
of who is elected.

Asked to identify which foreign leader they admired the most,  
respondents generally volunteered those most outspokenly defiant of  
Israel and the U.S. The most popular was Hezbollah leader Hassan  
Nasrallah, who was named by 26 percent of respondents, up from 14  
percent 17 months ago. Second-ranked was Syrian President Bashar al- 
Assad at 16 percent, up from just 2 percent in 2006.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad came up third with 10 percent  
of respondents, up from 4 percent in 2006, while al-Qaeda chief Osama  
bin Laden was cited by 6 percent of respondents, up from 4 percent.  
Al-Qaeda also appeared to receive a somewhat more sympathetic  
response among respondents than in late 2006.

Asked what aspect of the group, if any, they sympathize with the  
most, one-third of respondents told interviewers then that they "do  
not sympathize at all with this organization." Only 21 percent took  
that position in the latest poll.

(Inter Press Service)

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