[Peace-discuss] C-U in recession

[C. G. Estabrook]

U.S. Regional Recession Status

Moody's Economy.com classifies the current economic status of U.S. states and 
metro areas using four categories: "In Recession", "At Risk", "Recovery", or 
"Expansion". The evaluation of recession status is based on a six month test of 
either contraction or expansion. The six month test compares the six-month 
moving average in the current period to the six-month moving average in the 
period six months ago.

For a geography to be considered "In Recession", the six month test must show it 
to be in contraction. Furthermore, the coincident indicator cannot have yet 
reached a trough. If a trough has been reached, the economy has shifted from "In 
Recession" to "Recovery".

If the six month test shows the geography to be in expansion, then its status is 
either "Expansion" or "At Risk". The economy is only in "Expansion" when the 
coincident indicator has yet to reach a peak. If it appears that a local peak 
may have been reached and the coincident indicator is increasing but at a 
decreasing rate, then the economy is placed "At Risk".

Given the current slowing in growth driven by waning housing markets and 
weakness in manufacturing, it helps to have a gauge for where these fault lines 
are developing as there are varying levels of vulnerability across the country. 
This metric of recession status is just one of many ways of seeing where these 
problems lie.

...

Illinois	 At Risk
Bloomington-Normal, IL Metropolitan Statistical Area	 At Risk
*Champaign-Urbana, IL Metropolitan Statistical Area	 In Recession*
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL Metropolitan Division	 In Recession
Danville, IL Metropolitan Statistical Area	 In Recession
Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area	 At Risk
Decatur, IL Metropolitan Statistical Area	 In Recession
Kankakee-Bradley, IL Metropolitan Statistical Area	 At Risk
Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI Metropolitan Division	 Expansion
Peoria, IL Metropolitan Statistical Area	 At Risk
Rockford, IL Metropolitan Statistical Area	 In Recession
Springfield, IL Metropolitan Statistical Area	 At Risk

Indiana	 In Recession
Anderson, IN Metropolitan Statistical Area	 In Recession
Bloomington, IN Metropolitan Statistical Area	 At Risk
Columbus, IN Metropolitan Statistical Area	 At Risk
Elkhart-Goshen, IN Metropolitan Statistical Area	 In Recession
Evansville, IN-KY Metropolitan Statistical Area	 Expansion
Fort Wayne, IN Metropolitan Statistical Area	 In Recession
Gary, IN Metropolitan Division	 At Risk
Indianapolis-Carmel, IN Metropolitan Statistical Area	 At Risk
Kokomo, IN Metropolitan Statistical Area	 At Risk
Lafayette, IN Metropolitan Statistical Area	 In Recession
Michigan City-La Porte, IN Metropolitan Statistical Area	 At Risk
Muncie, IN Metropolitan Statistical Area	 In Recession
South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI Metropolitan Statistical Area	 In Recession
Terre Haute, IN Metropolitan Statistical Area	 In Recession

...

http://www.economy.com/dismal/recession.asp