[Peace-discuss] corn squeezin's

[E. Wayne Johnson]

The USDA just released a report (30 June) on estimated corn production 
that suggests the 2008 corn crop is larger than predicted back in 
March.  This sunny outlook is despite the fact that since March we have 
had rains that kept farmers from planting, rains that caused "drowned 
out" spots in corn fields, rains that caused massive flooding of river 
bottom flood plains, and unseasonably cool weather that hampers corn 
growth, such that 50% of the growing corn in the major corn producing 
states is rated fair to poor.  As a result of the rosy outlook provided 
by the spin from the USDA report, the rise in corn prices has stalled 
somewhat, which is a good thing, whether the USDA report is accurate or 
contrived.  After all this report is brought to you by the same folks 
who bring you the War in Iraq and the surge thereof, as well as the 
report that inflation is presently about 2%.

Consider the corn balance sheet.  Ethanol production will consume 4 
billion bushels of corn.  (a standard bushel is 56 lb).  Domestic 
Livestock production (meat, commercial farmed fish, poultry, milk, eggs) 
consumes 6.1 billion bu.  Foreign sales is about 2.5 billion bu.
The 2008 corn crop is estimated by non-USDA sources as being less than 
11 billion bushels, for a shortfall of 1,600,000,000 bushels.  Since the 
dollar is weak, domestic uses may not compete well with foreign buyers 
for scarce corn, so the correction is likely to come from a large 
decrease in domestic animal product output as well as pressure on the 
poorer people of the world who are at least partially dependent upon 
corn from the USA.