[Peace-discuss] Biofuels are prime cause of food crisis, says leaked (World Bank) report

[n.dahlheim at mchsi.com]

A very pithy response, I must say...  I'll bet however, once you factor in the 
water and soil erosion factors that invariably increase with the production of 
corn-base ethanol, that the net return on investment in ethanol technology is 
most definitely negative.  But, as you say---"Figures lie and liars figure."  
I think, as James Howard Kunstler always says, the "psychology of past 
investment" lubricated by the century of cheap petroleum that will permanently 
end in the coming decade will probably prevent us from accepting the reality 
that the easy motoring culture will forever be a thing consigned to history's 
dustbin.  We really also must ask if the gloomy predictions of civilization's 
collapse because of high populations, scarce fossil fuel energy, and serious 
climate instablity are quickly now becoming the reality of what will be a 
barbaric 21st century given the ignorance and greed amongst this citizenry and 
those of the "rising powers" in India and China.  Will we fight over oil and 
water till we initiate a nuclear holocaust?  Will all of our coastal cities 
drown in the rapidly rising seas as the ice caps melt like an ice cream cone 
on a hot summers day?  Will all of our grain-producing regions turn to deserts 
because of declining water tables and soil erosion from overly intensive 
cultivation?  All these possibilities seem likely given our current 
predicament.  Our collective karma as Americans, and especially as a culture 
of Takers to use Daniel Quinn's term, seems pretty bad considering our 
violation of the natural world and its limited resources.

Nick


----------------------  Original Message:  ---------------------
From:    "E. Wayne Johnson" <ewj at pigs.ag>
To:      n.dahlheim at mchsi.com
Cc:      "C. G. Estabrook" <galliher at uiuc.edu>,  Peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net
Subject: Re: [Peace-discuss] Biofuels are prime cause of food crisis,	says leaked (World Bank) report
Date:    Sat, 5 Jul 2008 03:42:35 +0000

> I have tried and find it almost futile to locate what I would call 
> credible information on just how much ethanol one
> can get from corn and what the actual net energy balance is.  The 
> available figures are all over the place with a large standard
> error, but if one estimates a mean net energy balance by a metaanalysis 
> of the literature, the best approximation for
> the net energy output using available data is not far a very large fat 
> Zero.  Those who are pro-ethanol are bending
> the figures to their will, and the anti-ethanol group may sadly be doing 
> somethink similar.  Figures lie and liars figure.
> 
> The available literature on ethanol is strewn with nonsense.  One pair 
> of USDA authors states in summary that one gallon of
> ethanol can displace 7 gallons of Foreign oil.  Such facts as this can 
> damage your brain circuits.  Even as one who can
> accept the miracle of the loaves and fishes, and  the tergiversations of 
> Bell's theorem and non-locality as being aspects of reality, the ethanol
> stuff is truly mind-warping.  Perhaps the correct figure is that 1 
> gallon of ethanol can replace 0.7 gallons of oil, but even
> that doesnt seem to make sense.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> n.dahlheim at mchsi.com wrote:
> > This article hits it right on the head----for the stability of the world 
> order, let's hope the G8 decides to
> > put a moratorium on biofuels production and listen to the World Ba
> > nk's sage advice in this respect.
> >
> > Best,
> >  Nick
> >
> >
> > ----------------------  Original Message:  ---------------------
> > From:    "C. G. Estabrook" <galliher at uiuc.edu>
> > To:      Peace-discuss <peace-discuss at anti-war.net>
> > Subject: [Peace-discuss] Biofuels are prime cause of food crisis, says leaked 
> (World Bank) report
> > Date:    Thu, 3 Jul 2008 22:13:12 +0000
> >
> >   
> >> 
> http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jul/03/biofuels.renewableenergy/print
> >>
> >> Aditya Chakrabortty
> >> Thursday July 3, 2008
> >>
> >> [Senior development sources believe the report, completed in April, has
> >> not been published to avoid embarrassing President George Bush. "It
> >> would put the World Bank in a political hot-spot with the White House,"
> >> said one yesterday.]
> >>
> >> Biofuels have forced global food prices up by 75% --- far more than
> >> previously estimated --- according to a confidential World Bank report
> >> obtained by the Guardian. The damning unpublished assessment is based on
> >> the most detailed analysis of the crisis so far, carried out by an
> >> internationally-respected economist at global financial body.
> >>
> >> The figure emphatically contradicts the US government's claims that
> >> plant-derived fuels contribute less than 3% to food-price rises. It will
> >> add to pressure on governments in Washington and across Europe, which
> >> have turned to plant-derived fuels to reduce emissions of greenhouse
> >> gases and reduce their dependence on imported oil.
> >>
> >> Senior development sources believe the report, completed in April, has
> >> not been published to avoid embarrassing President George Bush. "It
> >> would put the World Bank in a political hot-spot with the White House,"
> >> said one yesterday.
> >>
> >> The news comes at a critical point in the world's negotiations on
> >> biofuels policy. Leaders of the G8 industrialised countries meet next
> >> week in Hokkaido, Japan, where they will discuss the food crisis and
> >> come under intense lobbying from campaigners calling for a moratorium on
> >> the use of plant-derived fuels.
> >>
> >> It will also put pressure on the British government, which is due to
> >> release its own report on the impact of biofuels, the Gallagher Report.
> >> The Guardian has previously reported that the British study will state
> >> that plant fuels have played a "significant" part in pushing up food
> >> prices
> >> <http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jun/19/climatechange.biofuels>
> >> to record levels. Although it was expected last week, the report has
> >> still not been released.
> >>
> >> "Political leaders seem intent on suppressing and ignoring the strong
> >> evidence that biofuels are a major factor in recent food price rises,"
> >> said Robert Bailey, policy adviser at Oxfam. "It is imperative that we
> >> have the full picture. While politicians concentrate on keeping industry
> >> lobbies happy, people in poor countries cannot afford enough to eat."
> >>
> >> Rising food prices have pushed 100m people worldwide below the poverty
> >> line, estimates the World Bank, and have sparked riots from Bangladesh
> >> to Egypt. Government ministers here have described higher food and fuel
> >> prices as "the first real economic crisis of globalisation".
> >>
> >> President Bush has linked higher food prices to higher demand from India
> >> and China, but the leaked World Bank study disputes that: "Rapid income
> >> growth in developing countries has not led to large increases in global
> >> grain consumption and was not a major factor responsible for the large
> >> price increases."
> >>
> >> Even successive droughts in Australia, calculates the report, have had a
> >> marginal impact. Instead, it argues that the EU and US drive for
> >> biofuels has had by far the biggest impact on food supply and prices.
> >>
> >> Since April, all petrol and diesel in Britain has had to include 2.5%
> >> from biofuels. The EU has been considering raising that target to 10% by
> >> 2020, but is faced with mounting evidence that that will only push food
> >> prices higher.
> >>
> >> "Without the increase in biofuels, global wheat and maize stocks would
> >> not have declined appreciably and price increases due to other factors
> >> would have been moderate," says the report. The basket of food prices
> >> examined in the study rose by 140% between 2002 and this February. The
> >> report estimates that higher energy and fertiliser prices accounted for
> >> an increase of only 15%, while biofuels have been responsible for a 75%
> >> jump over that period.
> >>
> >> It argues that production of biofuels has distorted food markets in
> >> three main ways. First, it has diverted grain away from food for fuel,
> >> with over a third of US corn now used to produce ethanol and about half
> >> of vegetable oils in the EU going towards the production of biodiesel.
> >> Second, farmers have been encouraged to set land aside for biofuel
> >> production. Third, it has sparked financial speculation in grains,
> >> driving prices up higher.
> >>
> >> Other reviews of the food crisis looked at it over a much longer period,
> >> or have not linked these three factors, and so arrived at smaller
> >> estimates of the impact from biofuels. But the report author, Don
> >> Mitchell, is a senior economist at the Bank and has done a detailed,
> >> month-by-month analysis of the surge in food prices, which allows much
> >> closer examination of the link between biofuels and food supply.
> >>
> >> The report points out biofuels derived from sugarcane, which Brazil
> >> specializes in, have not had such a dramatic impact.
> >>
> >> Supporters of biofuels argue that they are a greener alternative to
> >> relying on oil and other fossil fuels, but even that claim has been
> >> disputed by some experts, who argue that it does not apply to US
> >> production of ethanol from plants.
> >>
> >> "It is clear that some biofuels have huge impacts on food prices," said
> >> Dr David King, the government's former chief scientific adviser, last
> >> night. "All we are doing by supporting these is subsidising higher food
> >> prices, while doing nothing to tackle climate change."
> >>
> >>
> >> [From <lbo-talk.org>. --CGE]
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