[Peace-discuss] New poll

[C. G. Estabrook]

[The new ABC/WP poll, like most polls on current events/personalities (e.g., "Do 
you like Obama's plan to end the war?"), as opposed to polls about principles 
and political beliefs (e.g, "When should the US go to war?"), perhaps says more 
about what the news media have been saying recently than about how those 
principles and beliefs might apply to the present situation, if the present 
situation were honestly reported. --CGE]


	ANALYSIS by GARY LANGER
	July 14, 2008

Americans divide evenly between Barack Obama and John McCain's approaches to the 
war in Iraq, and rate McCain much more highly on his abilities as 
commander-in-chief -- key reasons the unpopular war isn't working more to 
Obama's advantage. [BUT THE GENERAL USG PROPAGANDA IS DOING QUITE WELL, THANK YOU.]

Despite broad, longstanding dissatisfaction with the war, just 50 percent of 
Americans prefer Obama's plan to withdraw most U.S. forces within 16 months of 
taking office. Essentially as many, 49 percent, side with McCain's position -- 
setting no timetable and letting events dictate when troops are withdrawn. [A 
FARCICALLY INACCURATE ACCOUNT OF THEIR ESSENTIALLY FARCICAL POSITIONS...]

That division is reflected in another result: While Obama's steadily led on most 
domestic issues, he and McCain run about evenly in trust to handle Iraq, 45-47 
percent in this new ABC News/Washington Post poll.

The war's been a top campaign issue, second only to the economy in public 
concern; Obama speaks on it Tuesday, after writing an op-ed on the subject in 
Monday's New York Times.

This poll also finds substantial concern on the troubled conflict in 
Afghanistan: Fifty-one percent of Americans now say the U.S. campaign against 
the Taliban and al Qaeda there has been unsuccessful, double what it was in the 
heady days of 2002. [WHAT IS AMERICANS' SOURCE FOR THIS JUDGMENT? THE MEDIA, OF 
COURSE.]

Commander-in-Chief and Iraq

McCain's competitiveness on Iraq runs counter to broader views on the war, which 
more closely align with Obama's.

McCain supports the war and calls it essential in the U.S. campaign against 
terrorism [WHICH IS TAKEN AS A GIVEN!]; Obama differs. Among all Americans, 63 
percent say the war was not worth fighting, steady the last year and a half. And 
six in 10 reject the idea that winning in Iraq is necessary for success against 
terrorism more broadly [AGAIN, AS UNCHALLENGED AS THE ANTI-COMMUNIST CRUSADE 
ONCE WAS].

One reason McCain can push back on Iraq is his advantage as commander-in-chief 
-- a striking one, albeit perhaps not surprising given his military background. 
Seventy-two percent of Americans -- even most Democrats -- say he'd be a good 
commander-in-chief of the military. [AGAIN, WHAT'S THE BASIS FOR THIS JUDGMENT? 
THE MEDIA AGAIN, WHO HAVE NOT REPORTED THAT MCCAIN COMMITTED WAR CRIMES AND 
COLLABORATED WITH HIS VIETNAMESE CAPTORS, WHO SAVED HIS LIFE.]

By contrast, fewer than half, 48 percent, say Obama would be a good 
commander-in-chief, a significant weakness on this measure. (McCain's rating is 
much improved from his unsuccessful campaign for the Republican presidential 
nomination in 2000, when 56 percent said he'd be a good commander-in-chief -- no 
more than said so, at the time, about George W. Bush.)

The public's dissatisfaction with the war, furthermore, has not translated into 
a clear preference on what to do about it. [BECAUSE OF COURSE BOTH CANDIDATES 
AND MEDIA ARE IN THE BUSINESS OF OBFUSCATING IT.]

In previous ABC/Post polls there's been no significant demand for immediate 
withdrawal, given concern about what might follow -- a result buttressed by the 
split in this survey even on whether or not to establish a timetable. [WHAT'S 
REMARKABLE IS HOW MUCH A CALL THERE IS FOR THAT, GIVEN THAT NO POLITICIAN OR 
NEWSCASTER PRESENTS THE CASE.]

Views of progress in Iraq, also divided, are contributing as well.

Forty-six percent of Americans say the United States is making significant 
progress restoring civil order there [WHO TOLD THEM?!] -- still fewer than half, 
but up 6 points from April to the most in two years. People who see progress 
(disproportionately Republicans) are much more apt to oppose a timetable for 
withdrawal and to prefer McCain in trust to handle the war in general.

In another result, about equal numbers say Obama and McCain have been clear in 
their positions on withdrawing from Iraq, 56 and 60 percent, respectively. 
[WHICH IS NONSENSE.]

The Forgotten War in Afghanistan

This poll also finds very different views on the situation in Afghanistan, with 
notable concerns about the progress there. As noted, a bare majority of 
Americans, 51 percent, now say the U.S. military effort in Afghanistan has been 
unsuccessful, up from 24 percent in fall 2002. Just 44 percent see it as a 
success, down from 70 percent. [A JUDGMENT BASED ON GOOD INFORMATION, OR GIGO?]

At the same time, 45 percent say the war in Afghanistan was not worth fighting 
-- many fewer than say so about Iraq. And Afghanistan is more closely linked to 
terrorism: Just 42 percent say the war on terrorism can be a success without 
victory in Afghanistan, vs. the 60 percent who say so about Iraq.

Dividing Along Party Lines

Views of both wars divide clearly along partisan lines, with Democrats 
consistently holding more negative views, Republicans more positive ones. 
Independents, as so often is the case, tip the balance.

Majorities of Democrats and independents alike say the Iraq war was not worth 
fighting and that it's not linked to the broader war on terror; smaller 
majorities say there's been no significant progress there. Republicans take the 
opposite view on each of these.

On Afghanistan, however, independents side more closely with Republicans than 
with Democrats. Majorities of Republicans and independents think the war in 
Afghanistan was worth fighting and that the effort there is linked to the 
eventual defeat of terrorism more broadly. Majorities of Democrats disagree.

Similarly, 81 percent of Republicans oppose a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq 
while three-quarters of Democrats support one; independents divide, 53-47 percent

There's partisanship, as well, in views of Obama's readiness as commander-in-chief.

Sixty-nine percent of Democrats say he'd do well in this role; just 44 percent 
of independents and a mere 19 percent of Republicans agree. Majorities in all 
three groups, by contrast, say McCain would be a good commander-in-chief -- 56 
percent of Democrats, 74 percent of independents and a near-unanimous 94 percent 
of Republicans.

METHODOLOGY: This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone July 
10-13, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,119 adults, including an 
oversample of African Americans (weighted to their correct share of the national 
population), for a total of 209 black respondents. The results from the full 
survey have a 3-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by 
TNS of Horsham, PA.

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