[Peace-discuss] Sabra rattling

[C. G. Estabrook]

[There was some discussion at the AWARE meeting tonight as to how this "leak" 
was to be understood.  --CGE]

	Leaked Israeli drill seen as U.S. pressure on Iran
	Sun Jun 22, 2008 8:25am EDT
	By Jeffrey Heller

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - A U.S. leak of an Israeli air exercise reported to be 
practice for possible bombing of Iran's nuclear sites was seen in Israel on 
Sunday as a deliberate move to increase pressure on Tehran to halt sensitive 
atomic work.

"When the diplomacy of economic and political pressure fails to produce results, 
a shift is made to gunboat diplomacy," wrote Alex Fishman, military affairs 
correspondent of Israel's biggest newspaper, Yedioth Ahronoth.

"As the Iranian regime discusses the European Union representative's most recent 
offer to halt its nuclear program in exchange for extensive benefits, the 
Americans opted to add a bit more pressure in the shape of Israel's air force," 
he said.

Citing unidentified Pentagon sources, the New York Times said on Friday more 
than 100 Israeli F-16 and F-15 jets took part in a long-range Mediterranean 
exercise this month that appeared to be a rehearsal for real missions over Iran.

Israel did not confirm the reported exercise had taken place. But officials said 
such drills have been commonplace at least since 2005.

Commentator Amir Rappaport, writing in Israel's Maariv daily, said it was likely 
the Pentagon leak was an attempt "to deter Iran and increase pressure on it to 
cooperate" with international nuclear watchdogs.

Earlier this month, European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana went to 
Tehran to deliver a revised offer of economic and political incentives from the 
United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China for Iran to stop 
pursuing technology that could yield atomic bombs.

Iran has made clear it does not plan to stop a uranium enrichment program which 
it says is aimed at fueling power plants.

ATTACK

Israeli Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz, a former defense chief, told Yedioth 
several weeks ago that "if Iran continues with its program for developing 
nuclear weapons, we will attack it".

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, stopping short of an explicit threat to 
strike Iran, has called for "all possible means" to be used to stop its nuclear 
activities.

An analysis in Israel's Haaretz newspaper said the Olmert government viewed an 
attack on Iran as a last resort and would not strike without first coordinating 
its actions with the United States.

"Another variable is international sanctions on Iran. These are being applied 
sluggishly," Haaretz's Yossi Melman wrote. "But Israel still has not given up 
hope that Moscow and Beijing will change their policies and impose harsher 
sanctions."

Israel, which is believed to have the region's only atomic arsenal, bombed 
Iraq's nuclear reactor at Osiraq in 1981. Last September, it mounted a similar 
raid against a Syrian site that the United States described as a secret reactor 
built with North Korean help -- a charge denied by Damascus.

Sam Gardiner, a retired U.S. air force colonel who now stages wargames for 
various government agencies in Washington, said Iran's nuclear facilities were 
too distant, numerous and fortified for Israel to tackle unilaterally.

"The United States thinks in terms of around 1,000 'aim points' while an Israeli 
strike would be against around 100 'aim points,'" he said, adding that such a 
mission would be "disruptive" rather than "destructive".

(Additional reporting by Dan Williams, Editing by Dominic Evans)

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