[Peace-discuss] Iran policy

[Brussel Morton K.]

A report on an "the Joint Experts statement", i.e., recommendations  
to Obama on Iran: Loosen up. It's not perfect, but far better than  
what has been. Will Obama listen?

Obama Advised to Forgo More Threats to Iran

November, 19 2008

By Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON, Nov 17 (IPS) - A strategy of threats and "provocations"  
against Iran by the incoming administration of President-elect Barack  
Obama is likely to be counter-productive, according to a new report  
released here Friday by a group of 20 former top U.S. diplomats and  
regional experts.

The group, co-chaired by former U.N. Amb. Thomas Pickering and James  
Dobbins, a top diplomatic troubleshooter under both Presidents Bill  
Clinton and George W. Bush, called instead for the new administration  
to "open the door to direct, unconditional and comprehensive  
negotiations at the senior diplomatic level," as well as unofficial  
contacts and exchanges.

"Paradoxical as it may seem amid all the heated media rhetoric,  
sustained engagement is far more likely to strengthen United States  
national security at this stage than either escalation to war or  
continued efforts to threaten, intimidate or coerce Iran," according  
to the group, which also assailed what it called eight "myths"  
propagated by neo-conservatives and other hawks who have been pushing  
for greater pressure on Tehran to give in to western demands that it  
halt its nuclear programme.

The "Joint Experts' Statement on Iran", the product of several months  
of internal discussions, comes amid growing speculation that the Bush  
administration will try to open a U.S. Interests Section in Tehran in  
the two months left in its tenure to help lay the groundwork for  
direct diplomatic engagement with Iran, which Obama promised during  
the presidential campaign.

It also comes amid intensified jockeying among various factions and  
individuals for key Middle East-related posts in the incoming  
administration. Amb. Dennis Ross, an Obama adviser who led peace  
negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians during the Clinton  
years, is reportedly campaigning hard, with the backing of the so- 
called "Israel Lobby", to be appointed as special envoy to Iran and  
the wider region.

Ross, who, along with several other hawkish Obama advisers, was a  
charter member of United Against Nuclear Iran, signed a recent report  
drafted by two prominent neo-conservatives which argued that a  
deterrence would not work against a nuclear-capable Iran because of  
the "Islamic Republic's extremist ideology".

The report, sponsored by the "Bipartisan Policy Centre", also argued  
that the new president should make clear from his first day in office  
that he was prepared to militarily attack Iran with force if, in the  
face of escalating U.S. and international pressure on Tehran, it did  
not give up enriching uranium on its soil.

During his campaign, Obama stated on several occasions that Iran's  
acquisition of nuclear weapons was "unacceptable" and that he would  
never take military options off the table to prevent it. He has also  
sponsored legislation to tighten economic sanctions against Iran and  
companies that do business with it.

At the same time, however, he has repeatedly stressed that he would  
engage Tehran diplomatically without preconditions, even at the  
presidential level. At least one adviser has suggested that Obama  
would offer "more carrots" -- even as it seeks strong sanctions -- as  
part of a bargaining process than the Bush administration has  
considered.

The Experts' Statement, however, argues that a punitive sanctions  
approach, let alone a military attack, has been and is likely to  
continue to be counter-productive. "U.S. efforts to manage Iran  
through isolation, threats and sanctions have been tried  
intermittently for more than two decades," according to the group,  
which was also co-chaired by Columbia University Prof. Gary Sick, who  
dealt with Iran on the National Security Council staff of former  
Presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and Ronald Reagan.

"In that time they have not solved any major problem in U.S.-Iran  
relations, and have made most of them worse," it noted.

"Threats are not cowing Iran and the current regime in Tehran is not  
in imminent peril," it went on. "The United States needs to stop the  
provocations and take a long-term view with this regime, as it did  
with the Soviet Union and China."

The statement said retaining the threat of tougher sanctions if  
negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme fail is justifiable, but  
that the nuclear issue should be raised as part of a broader U.S.- 
Iran opening and that would include "the credible prospect of  
security assurances and specific, tangible benefits such as the  
easing of U.S. sanctions in response to positive policy shifts in Iran."

The new administration should also appoint a special envoy both to  
deal "comprehensively and constructively with Iran (as opposed to  
trading accusations) and explore its willingness to work with the  
United States on issues of common concern", particularly "in shaping  
the future of Iraq, Afghanistan and the region". It notes that the  
U.S. and Iran both support the government of Iraqi Prime Minister  
Nouri al-Maliki and face "common enemies" in Afghanistan in the  
Taliban, al Qaeda, and drug traffickers.

Dobbins, Bush's special envoy for Afghanistan and currently director  
of the International Security programme at the RAND Corporation, has  
repeatedly praised Iran's cooperation with U.S. efforts in ousting  
the Taliban and al Qaeda after 9/11 and setting up the government of  
President Hamid Karzai there.

The statement also stressed that a "U.S. rapprochement with Iran,  
even an opening of talks, could help in dealing with Arab-Israeli  
issues," given Tehran's influence with Palestinian Hamas and  
Lebanon's Hezbollah.

The statement also addressed certain "myths" which it said had been  
used by U.S. hawks to discourage engagement, including the notion  
that the religious nature of the regime renders it undeterrable and  
that its leadership is implacably opposed to the United States and  
determined to "wipe Israel off the map".

Citing specific examples of Tehran's foreign policy pragmatism over  
past two decades, including its secret arms trade with Israel and  
active support for the U.S. in Afghanistan, the statement asserts  
that Iran's "recent history...makes crystal clear that national self- 
preservation and regional influence -- not some quest for martyrdom  
in the service of Islam -- is Iran's main foreign policy goal."

It also cited declarations by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that Iran  
will not attack Israel unless it is attacked first and that "the day  
that relations with America prove beneficial for the Iranian nation,  
I will be the first one to approve of that."

While Iran's nuclear programme gives "cause for deep concern," its  
specific intent -- as a source of national pride, as a bargaining  
chip in broader negotiations with the U.S., as a deterrent against  
the U.S. or Israel, or as a weapon to support aggressive goals --  
remains murky, according to the statement.

"The only effective way to illuminate -- and constructively alter --  
Iran's intentions is through skillful and careful diplomacy. History  
shows that sanctions alone are unlikely to succeed, and a strategy  
limited to escalating threats or attacking Iran is likely to backfire  
-- creating or hardening a resolve to acquire nuclear weapons while  
inciting a backlash against us throughout the region," it said.

Besides the three co-chairs, the group's members included Emile  
Nakhleh, a retired senior CIA officer who served as director of the  
Political Islam Strategic Analysis Programme; Hadi Ghaemi,  
coordinator of the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran;  
and academic specialists on Iran, Shi'a Islam, and nuclear  
proliferation and technology.



From:
Z Net - The Spirit Of Resistance Lives
URL:
http://www.zcommunications.org/znet/viewArticle/19682
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