[Peace-discuss] Ignatius: Tea With the Taliban?

[Robert Naiman]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/24/AR2008102402804.html

Tea With the Taliban?

By David Ignatius
Sunday, October 26, 2008; B07

As U.S. and European officials ponder what to do about the
deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, they are coming to a perhaps
surprising conclusion: The simplest way to stabilize the country may
be to negotiate a truce with the Taliban fundamentalists who were
driven from power by the United States in 2001.

The question policymakers are pondering, in fact, isn't whether to
negotiate with the Taliban but when. There's a widespread view among
Bush administration officials and U.S. military commanders that it's
too soon for serious talks, because any negotiation now would be from
a position of weakness. Some argue for a U.S. troop buildup and an
aggressive military campaign next year to secure Afghan population
centers, followed by negotiations.

How the worm turns: A few years ago, it would have been unthinkable
that the United States would consider any rapprochement with the
Taliban militants who gave sanctuary to Osama bin Laden as he planned
the devastating attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. But the painful experience
of Iraq and Afghanistan has convinced many U.S. commanders that if you
can take an enemy off the battlefield through negotiations, that's
better than getting pinned down in protracted combat.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates made the argument for negotiations with
the Taliban bluntly on Oct. 9, during a meeting in Budapest with NATO
allies who are wearying of the conflict. "There has to be ultimately
-- and I'll underscore ultimately -- reconciliation as part of a
political outcome to this," Gates told reporters. "That's ultimately
the exit strategy for all of us."

Gen. David Petraeus, the new Centcom commander who has overall
responsibility for the wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan, has made
similar arguments. He believes that the United States must work to
separate the "reconcilables" among the Taliban from those who are
allied with al-Qaeda, and draw the moderates into the government.
Petraeus successfully pursued that strategy with Sunni Muslim
insurgents in Iraq -- encouraging them to break with al-Qaeda and then
forming alliances with them.

Petraeus believes that an effort to co-opt the Afghan insurgency
should probably be accompanied by a stronger U.S. troop presence, just
as it was in Iraq. But he argues that it's a mistake to think that
there's a purely military solution in either country. "You can't kill
or capture your way out of this," he explains.

A move to negotiate with the Taliban is already underway, perhaps
prematurely, thanks to a quiet diplomatic push by Saudi Arabia. Late
last month, at the end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, Saudi King
Abdullah met in Mecca with representatives of the Taliban and other
Afghan insurgent groups headed by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and Jalaluddin
Haqqani.

Afghanistan's president, Hamid Karzai, who was represented in Mecca by
his brother Qayoum Karzai, supported the Saudi mediation. "We're at
the very early stages now, but we do have hope for the future," Qayoum
Karzai told Agence France-Presse after the talks ended.

President Karzai is said to have demanded that the Taliban's leader,
Mullah Mohammad Omar, publicly renounce bin Laden and his deputy,
Ayman al-Zawahiri, as a condition for further talks. A Taliban
representative took this demand to Mullah Omar in his hideout in
Afghanistan and returned to Mecca with a positive answer, according to
a source familiar with the talks.

Mullah Omar has sent the Saudis a list of seven demands of his own,
according to this source. Among the items on the Taliban agenda are a
timetable for withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan; a role for
Taliban representatives in provincial and national government;
assimilation of Taliban fighters into the Afghan army; and amnesty for
guerrillas who fought against the United States.

The Saudis have proposed a second round of discussions in Mecca in
early December, when the hajj pilgrimage season begins. U.S. officials
are said to be skeptical that anything useful will come from the
exercise, but France and Britain -- increasingly worried about the
deteriorating situation in Afghanistan -- appear to be encouraging the
Saudi effort. Some Pakistani government and army leaders are also
supportive.

It would be political suicide for Barack Obama or John McCain to
suggest that America reach an accommodation with Taliban fighters who
once aided al-Qaeda. But Gates notes that we reached just such an
accord in Iraq with Sunni insurgents who had the blood of Americans on
their hands. "At the end of the day, that's how most wars end," he
said.



-- 
Robert Naiman
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org
naiman at justforeignpolicy.org

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