[Peace-discuss] Iran in the crosshairs?

[Morton K. Brussel]

Note especially the interesting 4th paragraph. ---mkb


Last update - 13:04 19/04/2009			

What would be the timetable for Israel strike on Iran?

By Amos Harel


The timing of Saturday's Times of London article, which claimed that  
the Israel Defense Forces is training for an attack on Iran on very  
short notice, is certainly no coincidence. Israel is trying to make  
clear that even though the United States plans to begin a diplomatic  
dialogue with Iran, it holds a realistic military option against  
Tehran's nuclear program. Without a deal that assuages Israel's  
concerns, there may be no other choice but to attack.

About 10 days ago, Maariv reported that the new prime minister,  
Benjamin Netanyahu, was briefed on the progress of the IDF's planning  
on the Iranian question. Supposedly he was happy with what he heard.  
It's highly probable we will hear and read many more reports of this  
sort in the near future, mostly in the international media.

Most senior defense figures believe that nothing positive will result  
from the dialogue between Washington and Tehran. They also acknowledge  
that Israel's ability to influence the talks is very low and that it  
would be best for Israel not to be seen as obstructing efforts to  
resolve the confrontation with Iran peacefully.
However, the defense establishment is continuing with its preparations  
for an attack, as well as its signals to the international community  
and Iran that the plan is serious and feasible.

There appears to be also an American effort to link an operation  
against Iran with a more favorable approach by Israel to peace with  
the Palestinians. An article in Yedioth Ahronoth last week suggested  
that the United States is hinting that its willingness to attack Iran  
(or permit Israel to do so) will be directly related to the Netanyahu  
government's flexibility on issues such as evacuating settlements,  
pullbacks from the West Bank and progress on a peace accord with the  
Palestinian Authority.

It's too soon to tell if this is a trial balloon from Washington or a  
clear position. But even if the dialogue with Tehran fails, senior IDF  
officers doubt whether the United States will allow Israel to go ahead  
with an offensive operation.

What may be the timetable for a strike? Updated Western intelligence  
assessments talk of fast Iranian progress and make discussions of a  
"point of no return" academic. Tehran is near the point where the  
question of whether it produces a nuclear weapon will be only a matter  
of choice, not ability.

Sometime in 2010 the Iranians will have enough fissile material for a  
single weapon; the IAEA says 25 kilograms are necessary. It is  
unlikely the Iranians will waste the material on demonstrating their  
abilities through an underground explosion. Most likely they will wait  
a year or two and build up a stockpile of about 75 kilograms of  
fissile material, which will suffice for a demonstration and a weapon  
or two.

The Iranians have another problem: It seems they still have a way to  
go to be able to place a nuclear weapon on a ballistic missile capable  
of reaching Israel. It is highly unlikely they will be able to mount a  
nuclear strike on Israel using aircraft-borne weapons, considering the  
Iranian air force's limitations.

Assessments about the year Iran will be a nuclear country vary, with  
Israel stressing 2010 (nuclear capable), and the United States  
estimating - according to Secretary of Defense Robert Gates - 2013 (a  
nuclear weapon). Either way, it's clear the next two to three years  
will be critical. It remains to be seen whether Netanyahu will discuss  
the Iranian threat publicly, as did Ehud Olmert, or work behind the  
scenes, as did Ariel Sharon. His choice will not necessarily indicate  
his decision on a strike against Iran.

Related articles:
'IDF eyes attack on Iran within hours of green light'
Clinton 'deeply diappointed' with Iran sentencing of U.S. reporter
Is Iran's new drone really an Israeli aircraft
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