[Peace-discuss] Re: Obama of Kabul will have his battle on schedule this spring?

[C. G. Estabrook]

	Patrick Cockburn: To achieve peace, we must
	break the Taliban's support base in Pakistan

Afghans wonder if we are really prepared to do anything effective about Pakistan

Tuesday, 28 April 2009

Hamid Karzai, who played host to Gordon Brown in Kabul yesterday, will have been 
delighted to hear the Prime Minister confirm the long-standing Afghan belief 
that there can be no long-term success against the Taliban in southern 
Afghanistan so long as they base themselves in Pakistan.

Afghan leaders blame the Taliban resurgence since 2006 on support from the ISI, 
Pakistan's military intelligence, and the use of base areas in Pakistan to 
regroup, train, and receive weapons and supplies. But Afghans wonder if the US, 
Britain or their allies are really prepared to do anything effective about 
Pakistan's support for the Taliban, which has been obvious since the 1990s.

The lockdown in Kabul ahead of Mr Brown's visit with checkpoints and road 
closures was an illustration of the security problem which still plagues the 
country.

The Afghan Army and police are also keen to make sure that Afghan Independence 
Day passes off peacefully, in contrast to last year, when Taliban gunmen tried 
to shoot the Afghan President during the ceremonies.

This year, suicide bombers have so far had more difficulty in penetrating 
central Kabul, although there was one attack on the Justice Ministry and the the 
Prisons Administration.

The most serious deterioration in security in the last year has been on the 
roads leading from Kabul. "A year ago I was able to go to my village in Logar 
province 60 miles south of Kabul, but now I would not dare go because the 
Taliban would kill me for having links with the government," said one Afghan 
journalist, who did not want his name published.

"Groups of six or eight Taliban, riding motorcycles, set up mobile checkpoints 
and look for government employees or people connected with non-government 
organisations. If they find them, they shoot them."

Despite Mr Brown's tough words, the ability of the Taliban to control or contest 
almost all of southern Afghanistan outside the cities will be difficult to 
reverse. Britain had 8,300 troops in Afghanistan, mostly in Helmand, and is 
sending a further 700 for the elections in August. They will be reinforced by 
more than 8,000 US Marines in the coming weeks, which are part of the extra 
25,000 US soldiers that President Obama is sending to reinforce the 40,000 
already in the country.

"We are confident that we are shouldering our share of the burden," Mr Brown said.

The only safe road out of Kabul is to the north, through the Salang tunnel, 
eventually leading to Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. This route is likely to be used 
increasingly for US and Nato supplies. which are being threatened by repeated 
attacks on vehicles carrying them through Peshawar in Pakistan.

All other roads around the capital are permanently or intermittently under 
Taliban control. The father of the Education Minister was recently kidnapped 
when he went to attend a family funeral in his home province.

Officials travelling with Mr Brown said he is to unveil a new strategy similar 
to that of President Obama, which will put emphasis on training police as well 
as the army. The former, paid only £50 a month, are notoriously corrupt and 
ineffective. The regular army has a much better reputation among Afghans but is 
poorly equipped, its soldiers often driving thin skinned vehicles that are 
highly vulnerable to bomb attacks.

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/patrick-cockburn-to-achieve-
peace-we-must-break-the-talibans-support-base-in-pakistan-1675192.html