[Peace-discuss] Obama and the Great Game

[C. G. Estabrook]

(Always with the innuendo, Mort -- what "noxious intent" do you descry?)

I think this account is quite limited -- we should be talking about how 
to make it more accurate -- but its conclusion ("Obama should cut 
America's losses, come home and let their neighbors deal with [the] 
Taliban") is better than the Nation's call for "a regional strategy to 
stabilize Afghanistan and strengthen Pakistan."  --CGE

Morton K. Brussel wrote:
> Newsweek is "liberal" like the Washington Post and CNN, 
> imperialist/nationalist outposts. I would describe the The Nation as
>  'liberal", quite a difference. But language being infinitely
> flexible, easily lends itself as a hammer for those with noxious
> intent.
> 
> --mkb
> 
> On Feb 13, 2009, at 3:56 PM, C. G. Estabrook wrote:
> 
>> [A paleo-conservative analysis of the US war in Afghanistan.  It 
>> doesn't go far enough -- it ignores, e.g., the primary US war aim,
>> the control of Mideast energy resources -- but it's better that
>> anything I've seen in the liberal press, like the recent Newsweek
>> account.  Has anybody got a counter example?]
>> 
>> Obama and the Great Game 02/13/2009
>> 
>> The day before Richard Holbrooke arrived in Kabul, eight suicide 
>> bombers and gunmen attacked the Justice and Education ministries, 
>> killing 26 and wounding 57.
>> 
>> Kabul was paralyzed, as the Taliban displayed an ability to wreak 
>> havoc within a hundred yards of the presidential palace.
>> 
>> The assault came as President Obama is both conducting a strategic
>>  review and deciding how many additional U.S. troops to send.
>> 
>> Earlier, there was talk of 30,000, bringing the U.S. total to
>> 63,000. Now, there are reports Obama may commit no more than the
>> three brigades promised in 2008, and only one brigade now.
>> 
>> Clearly, the United States is checking its hole card. Can we draw
>> to a winning hand? Or is this hand an inevitable loser -- and we
>> must cut our losses and cede the pot? No longer, anywhere, is there
>> talk of "victory."
>> 
>> Nor is the diplomatic news good.
>> 
>> Last week, Kyrgyzstan gave us six months to vacate Manas, the air
>> base used to resupply U.S. forces. A week before, guerrillas blew
>> up a bridge in the Khyber, cutting the 1,000-mile supply line from
>> Karachi to Kabul. Before that, guerrillas bombed U.S. truck parks
>> in Pakistan.
>> 
>> While in Pakistan, Holbrooke was told by all to whom he spoke that,
>>  while U.S. Predator strikes may be killing Taliban and al-Qaida,
>> the deaths among tribal peoples are turning Pakistan against us.
>> 
>> What would winning Afghanistan for democracy profit us, if the
>> price were losing a nuclear-armed Pakistan to Islamism?
>> 
>> The expulsion from Manas, after Kyrgyzstan received a reported $2 
>> billion in aid from Moscow, raises a question.
>> 
>> Is Russia restarting "The Great Game" she played against Victoria's
>>  Empire in Central Asia, which ended in 1907 with a British-Russian
>>  entente, dividing Iran into spheres of influence, with both sides
>>  agreeing to keep hands off Afghanistan?
>> 
>> As Russia has as great an interest in preventing an Islamist Kabul,
>>  and has assisted NATO's resupply of its forces, why would Moscow
>> seek to expel us from a base vital to the war effort?
>> 
>> Does Russia simply seek to be recognized by the United States as
>> the hegemon of Central Asia, the sole great power that decides who
>> can and who cannot use former Soviet bases?
>> 
>> For if Manas is closed and the Karachi-Khyber-Kabul supply line is
>>  compromised or cut, Obama would seem to have but three options.
>> 
>> First would be to go back, hat-in-hand, to Islam Karimov, the Uzbek
>>  ruler charged with grave human rights violations, and ask him to 
>> reopen the Karshi-Khanabad (K2) air base, from which we were
>> expelled in 2005. And what would be Karimov's asking price?
>> 
>> Second is the Russia option. If Moscow now holds the whip hand in
>> the old Soviet republics, what is Moscow's price to let us remain
>> in Manas or use other Soviet bases over which it wields veto power?
>> 
>> 
>> The answer is obvious. Neither Georgia nor Ukraine is to be brought
>>  into NATO. The independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, won in
>> the August war with Georgia, is not to be challenged. The U.S
>> anti-missile missiles planned for Poland are not to be deployed.
>> 
>> In turn, Russia will cancel any missile deployment in Kaliningrad,
>>  recommits to the terms of all conventional forces agreements in
>> Europe and assist in the effort in Afghanistan. Russia rejoins the
>> West, and the West stays off Russia's front porch.
>> 
>> Be not surprised if the Russians come trolling before an
>> overextended American empire an end to the Great Game in Central
>> Asia like the one the ministers of Nicholas II offered the
>> ministers of Edward VII.
>> 
>> And the third option? It is Iran.
>> 
>> Before 9-11, Iran was more hostile to the anti-Shia Taliban than
>> we, and it has no desire to see them return. Indeed, Tehran was a 
>> supporter of the U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, as both were
>> ruled by mortal enemies.
>> 
>> The long way for U.S. and NATO war materiel to reach Kabul via Iran
>>  would be through a Turkey-Kurdistan-Iran supply line. The shorter
>>  would be from Iranian ports straight into Afghanistan.
>> 
>> Price of an entente? An end to the 30-year U.S.-Iranian cold war
>> and a strategic bargain whereby Iran is allowed to develop peaceful
>> nuclear power, under supervision, the United States lifts its
>> embargo, and regime change is left to the Iranian people.
>> 
>> President Ahmadinejad, no fool, and facing an uncertain election
>> this year, is already signaling interest in negotiations with
>> Obama.
>> 
>> A complication. How would "Bibi" Netanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman 
>> regard a U.S.-Iran rapprochement -- to prevent a Taliban triumph in
>>  Kabul?
>> 
>> Yet, if the Taliban's enemies in Russia, Iran, Pakistan and Central
>>  Asia will not assist us, this war cannot end well. And if they
>> will not help, Obama should cut America's losses, come home and let
>> their neighbors deal with a triumphant Taliban.
>> 
>> --Patrick J. Buchanan
>> 
>> Mr. Buchanan is a nationally syndicated columnist and author of 
>> Churchill, Hitler, and "The Unnecessary War": How Britain Lost Its
>> Empire and the West Lost the World, "The Death of the West,", "The
>> Great Betrayal," "A Republic, Not an Empire" and "Where the Right
>> Went Wrong."