[Peace-discuss] Player-to-be-named-later

[C. G. Estabrook]

[The journal Foreign Policy runs a blog under the technologically nostalgic name 
"The Cable." Here's some disturbing information from yesterday's edition.  More 
evidence, were it needed, of Obama's continuation and intensification of the war 
in SW Asia.  --CGE]


	Dennis Ross, Iran envoy
	Mon, 01/26/2009 - 9:20am

He wasn't unveiled at the Obama/Biden/Hillary Clinton envoy roll-out event at 
Foggy Bottom last week, but State Department sources tell The Cable that former 
Middle East peace negotiator Dennis Ross has indeed been tapped as the U.S. 
envoy to Iran, with the possible title "ambassador at large."

Ross, who did not respond to a query, laid out his recommendations for "how to 
stop Iran from getting nukes," in this November 2008 Newsweek piece. ["Talk 
Tough with Tehran" <http://www.newsweek.com/id/171256>.]

	New NSC NESA
	Mon, 01/26/2009 - 9:02am

Sources tell The Cable that former Senate staffer and Obama campaign Middle East 
advisor Daniel Shapiro will be tapped as NSC senior director for the Near East 
and South Asia, spanning from Morocco to Bangladesh. Two more senior directors 
for the huge region (Persian Gulf and South Asia) may be appointed in the future.

Among Shapiro's responsibilities, sources say, will be supporting the mission of 
Middle East peace envoy George Mitchell, who is expected to travel to the region 
this week. The elimination for now of the South Asia senior directorship at the 
NSC reflects current budget issues, as well as the fact that NSC 
responsibilities for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are continuing to be run 
by Bush's NSC "war czar" Gen. Douglas Lute, who is staying on.

In addition, the new NESA regional grouping reflects other changes by National 
Security advisor Gen. Jim Jones to organize the NSC along Defense 
Department/CINC lines. One oddity of the arrangement, according to sources, is 
that it puts India under the NSC senior directorship for Asia (run by Jeff 
Bader), while Pakistan and Afghanistan fall under NESA.

	India’s stealth lobbying against Holbrooke's brief
	Fri, 01/23/2009 - 7:12pm

When Secretary of State Hillary Clinton -- flanked by President Obama -- 
introduced Richard Holbrooke as the formidable new U.S. envoy to South Asia at a 
State Department ceremony on Thursday, India was noticeably absent from his title.

Holbrooke, the veteran negotiator of the Dayton accords and sharp-elbowed 
foreign policy hand who has long advised Clinton, was officially named "special 
representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan" in what was meant to be one of the 
signature foreign policy acts of Obama's first week in office.

But the omission of India from his title, and from Clinton's official remarks 
introducing the new diplomatic push in the region was no accident -- not to 
mention a sharp departure from Obama's own previously stated approach of 
engaging India, as well as Pakistan and Afghanistan, in a regional dialogue. 
Multiple sources told The Cable that India vigorously -- and successfully -- 
lobbied the Obama transition team to make sure that neither India nor Kashmir 
was included in Holbrooke's official brief.

"When the Indian government learned Holbrooke was going to do [Pakistan]-India, 
they swung into action and lobbied to have India excluded from his purview," 
relayed one source. "And they succeeded. Holbrooke's account officially does not 
include India."

To many Washington South Asia experts, the decision to not include India or 
Kashmir in the official Terms of Reference of Holbrooke's mandate was not just 
appropriate, but absolutely necessary. Given India's fierce, decades-long 
resistance to any internationalization of the Kashmir dispute, to have done so 
would have been a non-starter for India, and guaranteed failure before the envoy 
mission had begun, several suggested.

"Leaving India out of the title actually opens up [Holbrooke's] freedom to talk 
to them," argued Philip Zelikow, a former counselor to Secretary of State 
Condoleezza Rice who served until December as a consultant for a lobbying firm, 
BGR, retained by the Indian Government.

But to others -- including Obama himself, who proposed a special envoy to deal 
with Kashmir during the campaign -- the region's security challenges cannot be 
solved without including India. Obama told Time's Joe Klein, that working with 
Pakistan and India to try to resolve their Kashmir conflict would be a critical 
task for his administration's efforts to try to counter growing instability in 
Afghanistan and Pakistan. "Kashmir in particular is an interesting situation 
where that is obviously a potential tar pit diplomatically," Obama told Klein. 
"But, for us to devote serious diplomatic resources to get a special envoy in 
there, to figure out a plausible approach, and essentially make the argument to 
the Indians, you guys are on the brink of being an economic superpower, why do 
you want to keep on messing with this? ... I think there is a moment where 
potentially we could get their attention. It won't be easy, but it's important." 
Obama also suggested in the interview that he had discussed the special envoy 
idea with former President Bill Clinton.

Whatever the case, the evidence that India was able to successfully lobby the 
Obama transition in the weeks before it took office to ensure Holbrooke's 
mission left them and Kashmir out is testament to both the sensitivity of the 
issue to India as well as the prowess and sophistication of its Washington 
political and lobbying operation.

"The Indians freaked out at talk of Bill Clinton being an envoy to Kashmir," 
said Daniel Markey, a South Asia expert at the Council on Foreign Relations. 
"The reason they were so worried is they don't want their activities in Kashmir 
to be equated with what Pakistan is doing in Afghanistan."

"They [India] are the big fish [in the region]," Markey added. "They don't want 
to be grouped with the 'problem children' in the region, on Kashmir, on nuclear 
issues. They have a fairly effective lobbying machine. They have taken a lot of 
notes on the Israel model, and they have gotten better. But you don't want to 
overstate it. Some of the lobbying effort is obvious, done through companies, 
but a lot of it is direct government to government contact, people talking to 
each other. The Indian government and those around the Indian government made 
clear through a variety of channels because of the Clinton rumors and they came 
out to quickly shoot that down."

Once Holbrooke's name was floated, the Indian lobbying campaign became even more 
intense. "The Indians do not like Holbrooke because he has been very good on 
Pakistan... and has a very good feel for the place" said one former U.S. 
official on condition of anonymity. "The Indians have this town down."

Initially, when Obama's plans for a corps of special envoys became public after 
the election, The Cable was told, the idea was for a senior diplomat to tackle 
the Kashmir dispute as part of the South Asia envoy portfolio and whose mandate 
would include India. But soon after the election and Holbrooke's name began to 
appear, the Indians approached key transition officials to make clear that while 
they could not affect what the new administration did with respect to envoys, 
that they would expect no mediation on the Kashmir issue.

"I have suggested to others, though not directly to Dick [Holbrooke], that his 
title should not/not include India, precisely so that he would be freer to work 
with them," Zelikow said. "If you understand Indian politics, this paradox makes 
sense."

"I did nothing for the [Government of India] on this," Zelikow added. The Indian 
government "talked directly to folks on the  [Obama] transition team and I heard 
about it from my Indian friends. I think Holbrooke needs to talk to the Indians. 
But they are trying, understandably, to break out of being in a  hyphenated 
relationship with America (i.e., comprehended  on a mental map called 
India-Pakistan)."

Other sources said India's hired lobbyists were deployed to shape the contours 
of the U.S. diplomatic mission. According to lobbying records filed with the 
Department of Justice, since 2005, the government of India has paid BGR about 
$2.5 million. BGR officials who currently work on the Indian account, who 
according to lobbying records include former Sen. Chuck Hagel aide Andrew 
Parasiliti, former U.S. State Department counterproliferation official Stephen 
Rademaker, former Bush I and Reagan era White House aide and BGR partner Ed 
Rogers, and former House Foreign Affairs committee staffer Walker Roberts, did 
not respond to messages left Friday by Foreign Policy. Former U.S. ambassador to 
India Robert Blackwill, who previously served as a lobbyist for India, left BGR 
in 2008 for the Rand Corporation. In addition, the Indian embassy in Washington 
has paid lobbying firm Patton Boggs $291,665 under a six-month contract that 
took effect Aug. 18, according to lobbying records.

"BGR has been a registered lobbyist for the Indian government since 2005," noted 
one Senate staffer on condition of anonymity. "The Indian government retained 
BGR for the primary purpose of pushing through the Congress the civil nuclear 
cooperation agreement between the United States and India - hence the strategic 
hires of Bob Blackwill, the former U.S. Ambassador to India, and Walker Roberts, 
a senior staffer on the House Foreign Affairs Committee responsible for vetting 
past such agreements. BGR continues to actively lobby on behalf of the Indian 
government - their lobbyists sought to influence a recent Senate resolution on 
the Mumbai attacks. So I would be very surprised if BGR were NOT involved here."

(For its part, Pakistan has spent about $1,175,000, on lobbying during the past 
year, including on trade issues. That includes Dewey and LeBoeuf's work for the 
Ministry of Commerce, and Locke Lord's work for the Embassy of Pakistan and the 
Pakistan International Airlines Corp, according to lobbying records.)

It's not clear to experts and officials interviewed exactly who in the Obama 
transition team was contacted as part of the Indian lobbying effort. The White 
House did not respond to queries.

Asked about the decision to exclude India from the special envoy's official 
mandate, former NSC and CIA official Bruce Riedel, who served as the senior lead 
of the team advising the Obama campaign on South Asian issues, said by e-mail, 
"When Senator Clinton originally proposed the envoy idea in her campaign it was 
only for Afghanistan and Pakistan." He didn't respond to a further query 
questioning why Clinton's campaign comments on the issue mattered as much as 
Obama's, since, obviously, it was Obama who won the presidency and ultimately 
appointed her to carry out his foreign policy as the Obama administration's top 
diplomat.

http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/