[Peace-discuss] Wasn't even close [flu vs. public health]

Wed Jun 17 12:34:57 CDT 2009

That's exactly the issue...we don't have "continual year after year
experience" with this particular virus.  Our bodies are well adapted at
fighting the "plain old flu", but have basically no defense against this
strain of H1N1.  We are lucky that it hasn't killed many people, yet.  The
fact that it hasn't killed that many people has more to do with the virus
than it does with our bodies' ability to fight it.  But the worst may very
well be yet to come, as was the case with the spanish flu, the asian flu,
and the hong kong flu.
>From the WHO:
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/frequently_asked_questions/about_disease/en/index.html

*What is the new influenza A(H1N1)?*

This is a new influenza A(H1N1) virus that has never before circulated among
> humans. This virus is not related to previous or current human seasonal
> influenza viruses.

*Why are we so worried about this flu when hundreds of thousands die every
> year from seasonal epidemics?*

Seasonal influenza occurs every year and the viruses change each year - but
> many people have some immunity to the circulating virus which helps limit
> infections. Some countries also use seasonal influenza vaccines to reduce
> illness and deaths.

 But influenza A(H1N1) is a new virus and one to which most people have no
> or little immunity and, therefore, this virus could cause more infections
> than are seen with seasonal flu. WHO is working closely with manufacturers
> to expedite the development of a safe and effective vaccine but it will be
> some months before it is available.

 The new influenza A(H1N1) appears to be as contagious as seasonal
> influenza, and is spreading fast particularly among young people (from ages
> 10 to 45). The severity of the disease ranges from very mild symptoms to
> severe illnesses that can result in death. The majority of people who
> contract the virus experience the milder disease and recover without
> antiviral treatment or medical care. Of the more serious cases, more than
> half of hospitalized people had underlying health conditions or weak immune
> systems.

John

On Tue, Jun 16, 2009 at 11:22 PM, E. Wayne Johnson <ewj at pigs.ag> wrote:

>  In which of the 91 years since 1918 was this scenario not equally
> plausible?
>
> Except for one thing --  the continual year after year experience with the
> bug.
>
> It's xenophobia and deja vu all over again.  The modern day equivalent of
> the Witch Craze.
> If it ain't the Islamofascists, its the Swine Flu and the Chinese.
>
>
>
> On 6/16/2009 10:52 PM, John Fettig wrote:
>
> http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/influenza/maps/
>  This is one very valid reason why we need a vaccine.
> The 1918 virus was mild in the spring, but extremely deadly when the flu season hit.
>
>  John
>
> On Tue, Jun 16, 2009 at 10:34 PM, Stuart Levy <slevy at ncsa.uiuc.edu> wrote:
>
>> On Tue, Jun 16, 2009 at 07:57:52PM -0500, E. Wayne Johnson wrote:
>> > *<venom>*
>> >
>> > If one can set the war aside just for the moment----
>> >
>> > The  lies about the so-called A(H1N1) flu virus [aka Swine Flu] ought to
>> be
>> > enough by themselves to cause the huddled and befuddled masses to rise
>> up
>> > and take torch and manure fork in hand. But, it's only $25 or so for
>> each
>> > citizen, so its /very Reasonable/...
>> > You can't expect our debt-ridden masses to Rise Up for twenty-five
>> bucks.
>> >
>> > But seriously, folks, about 35,000 people in the US die every year from
>> > P.O.F. (plain old flu) and its manifold complications, every year, year
>> > after year after year.  So what so unusual about this A(H1N1)?  Nothing.
>> > At.  All.
>>
>> It does seem to be clear now, but was that clear from the outset?
>>
>> I'm not sure whether you're criticizing the residual hysteria,
>> which seems terrifically wasteful to me too, or the early alarm
>> in the first few weeks, which seemed reasonable.  Wasn't it?
>>
>> As I understand it, the story has been that...
>>
>>   - This year's H1N1 is a new variant of a flu virus which has
>>        crossed from pigs to humans in the past.
>>
>>   - Eventually it's expected that *some* animal flu virus,
>>        to which humans haven't yet adapted and react badly,
>>        will become transmissible enough among humans to propagate fast,
>>        and it'll be a big deal.  When that happens, stopping it fast
>>        will be important.  People today are a lot more mobile than
>>        in 1918.
>>
>>   - This year's H1N1 is transmissible between humans.
>>        Early on it wasn't clear how transmissible.
>>
>>   - This H1N1 was lethal for at least a fair number of people.
>>        Early on it wasn't clear how lethal.
>>
>>   - It was more lethal for young healthy adults than among
>>        the elderly or children, which is unusual among flu viruses,
>>        but was true of the very serious 1918 H1N1 variant.
>>
>> Is any of that wrong?  Given that early picture, wasn't it
>> reasonable for public-health people to raise an alarm at the time?
>>
>> It's since become clear that this one *isn't* very lethal nor
>> very transmissible.  It's just a run-of-the-mill flu virus as you say.
>>
>> So we don't need to hear in today's national news that someone in
>> such-and-such city has died of this year's variant -- it's unfortunate,
>> and it's worth tracking in public health circles, but it shouldn't be
>> news any more than the daily obituaries are.
>>
>> And so it seems we should be mad if we're going to spend $1.5 billion
>> on fighting *this* H1N1 outbreak, which was the plan when it was put into
>> the supplemental in late April (when, given what was known then,
>> it might have been a real emergency, right?).
>>
>> If that is still the plan, sure enough, it'll be a ridiculous waste.
>> We could provide a lot of real public health service, for
>> tuberculosis or diabetes or drug treatment or whatever, for $1.5 billion.
>>
>>
>> > About 40% of the cases of P.O.F. are caused by A(H1N1) influenza
>> viruses.
>> > So that roughly about 35 to 40 deaths every day 24/7/365 are caused by
>> > Plain Old "A(H1N1)".   While a few odd cases constitutes a Pandemic.
>> >
>> > As Costello said, "One of us is NUTS!!!"
>> >
>> > So, one might say this whole business of the flu is what is generally
>> > referred to as a Fraud,  a Scam, an Artifice.
>> > It's about the m-o-n-e-y...but, it's only about a $100 for a family of
>> 4.
>> >
>> > Plus another $100 or so for the cronies and operatives at the IMF...
>> [ty!
>> > :-) ]
>> >
>> > &...Enjoy your stimulus...*SUCKERS!!!!*
>> >
>> > ****
>> >
>> > We now return you to the War, which is already in progress.
>> >
>> > *</venom>*
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