[Peace-discuss] Wasn't even close [flu vs. public health]

Wed Jun 17 13:20:51 CDT 2009

Here is one more
article.  I'm pretty well convinced that you think there is some grand
conspiracy between doctors and politicians to steal your money, and
that no amount of evidence will convince you otherwise.
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/NEJMp0903906

*The Signature Features of Influenza Pandemics — Implications for Policy*
*Mark A. Miller, M.D., Cecile Viboud, Ph.D., Marta Balinska, Ph.D., and Lone
Simonsen, Ph.D.*

[image: This Article]
 [image: -]*PDF </cgi/reprint/NEJMp0903906v1.pdf>*
[image: Tools and Services]
[image: -] *Add to Personal
Archive</cgi/folders?action=addtofolder&wherefrom=JOURNALS&wrapped_id=nejm;NEJMp0903906v1>
* [image: -]*Add to Citation Manager
</cgi/citmgr?gca=nejm;NEJMp0903906v1>* [image:
-]*Notify a Friend</cgi/mailafriend?url=http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/short/NEJMp0903906v1&title=The+Signature+Features+of+Influenza+Pandemics+--+Implications+for+Policy>
* [image: -]*E-mail When
Cited</cgi/alerts/ctalert?alertType=citedby&addAlert=cited_by&saveAlert=no&cited_by_criteria_resid=nejm;NEJMp0903906v1&return_type=article&return_url=%2Fcgi%2Fcontent%2Ffull%2FNEJMp0903906>
*
[image: More Information]
[image: -] *PubMed
Citation</cgi/external_ref?access_num=19423872&link_type=PUBMED>
* Vast amounts of time and resources are being invested in planning for the
next influenza pandemic, and one may indeed have already begun. Data from
past pandemics can provide useful insights for current and future planning.
Having conducted archeo-epidemiologic research, we can clarify certain
"signature features" of three previous influenza pandemics — A/H1N1 from
1918 through 1919, A/H2N2 from 1957 through 1963, and A/H3N2 from 1968
through 1970 — that should inform both national plans for pandemic preparedness
and required international collaborations.

Past pandemics were characterized by a shift in the virus subtype, shifts of
the highest death rates to younger populations, successive pandemic waves,
higher transmissibility than that of seasonal influenza, and differences in
impact in different geographic regions. Although influenza pandemics are
classically defined by the first of these features, the other four
characteristics are frequently not considered in response plans.

Yet the second feature, the shift in mortality toward younger age groups,
was the most striking characteristic of the 20th-century pandemics.1
<#R1>,2<#R2> Exposure
to influenza A/H1 subtypes before 1873 may have offered some protection to
adults over 45 years of age during the pandemic of 1918 and 1919. A similar
mechanism of antigen recycling might explain the partial protection
against influenza-related
death that was observed among people over 77 years of age during the
1968–1970 pandemic — a possibility supported by the prepandemic presence of
antibodies to H3, which were isolated in people born before 1892.1 <#R1>
 Another possible mechanism is immune potentiation, leading to an
increased likelihood
of lethal outcomes after influenza infection in specific age groups. Still
other hypotheses include the possibility of bacterial superinfection due to
asymmetric carriage rates, given that higher rates were found among young
people in 1918 and 1919.1 <#R1>,2 <#R2> Although the elderly frequently have
the highest death rates during seasonal epidemics, their relative sparing
during pandemics has not been generally appreciated. Advance knowledge of
which subpopulations are most likely to be at increased risk for death can
shape the optimization of control strategies.

The third feature, a pattern of multiple waves, characterized all three
20th-century pandemics, each of which caused increased mortality for 2 to 5
years (see chart <#F1>).1 <#R1> The lethal wave in the autumn of 1918 was
preceded by a first wave in the summer that led to substantial morbidity but
relatively low mortality in both the United States and Europe. Recent
studies suggest that these early mild outbreaks partially immunized the
population, decreasing the mortality impact of the main pandemic wave in the
fall of 1918.2 <#R2> In the United States, the 1957 influenza A/H2 pandemic
had three waves in the United States, with notable excess mortality in the
nonsuccessive winter seasons of 1959 and 1962 — the latter being 5 years
after the initial emergence of the pandemic strain.1 <#R1> From 1968 through
1970, Eurasia had a mild first influenza season, with the full effects
on morbidity
and mortality occurring in the second season of pandemic-virus circulation.
The reasons for multiple waves of varying impact are not precisely
understood, but they probably include adaptation of the virus to its new
host, demographic or geographic variation, seasonality, and the overall
immunity of the population.1 <#R1>,2 <#R2>The occurrence of multiple waves
potentially provides time for health authorities to implement control
strategies for successive waves.

(rest of article can be read at above link)

John

On Wed, Jun 17, 2009 at 12:53 PM, E. Wayne Johnson <ewj at pigs.ag> wrote:

>  Horsefeathers.
>
> WHO, and indeed we should ask, Who?, is distributing to us a what amounts
> to nothing more than a pack of lies thinly veiled with a smidgin of the
> truth
>
> The virus is always "Different" year after year.  If that were not so, the
> virus would burn itself out of any susceptible hosts, because flu viruses
> are always highly contagious.  These fearmongering tax-eaters are using the
> consistent characteristics of the virus and the disease to fool the
> public into thinking that there is really something novel and unique going
> on.
>
> The surrealism of it all is astounding.  Who's next?
>
>
> On 6/17/2009 12:34 PM, John Fettig wrote:
>
> That's exactly the issue...we don't have "continual year after year
> experience" with this particular virus.  Our bodies are well adapted at
> fighting the "plain old flu", but have basically no defense against this
> strain of H1N1.  We are lucky that it hasn't killed many people, yet.  The
> fact that it hasn't killed that many people has more to do with the virus
> than it does with our bodies' ability to fight it.  But the worst may very
> well be yet to come, as was the case with the spanish flu, the asian flu,
> and the hong kong flu.
>  From the WHO:
> http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/frequently_asked_questions/about_disease/en/index.html
>
>  *What is the new influenza A(H1N1)?*
>
> This is a new influenza A(H1N1) virus that has never before circulated
>> among humans. This virus is not related to previous or current human
>> seasonal influenza viruses.
>
>
>  *Why are we so worried about this flu when hundreds of thousands die
>> every year from seasonal epidemics?*
>
> Seasonal influenza occurs every year and the viruses change each year - but
>> many people have some immunity to the circulating virus which helps limit
>> infections. Some countries also use seasonal influenza vaccines to reduce
>> illness and deaths.
>
>  But influenza A(H1N1) is a new virus and one to which most people have no
>> or little immunity and, therefore, this virus could cause more infections
>> than are seen with seasonal flu. WHO is working closely with manufacturers
>> to expedite the development of a safe and effective vaccine but it will be
>> some months before it is available.
>
>  The new influenza A(H1N1) appears to be as contagious as seasonal
>> influenza, and is spreading fast particularly among young people (from ages
>> 10 to 45). The severity of the disease ranges from very mild symptoms to
>> severe illnesses that can result in death. The majority of people who
>> contract the virus experience the milder disease and recover without
>> antiviral treatment or medical care. Of the more serious cases, more than
>> half of hospitalized people had underlying health conditions or weak immune
>> systems.
>
>
>  John
>
> On Tue, Jun 16, 2009 at 11:22 PM, E. Wayne Johnson <ewj at pigs.ag> wrote:
>
>> In which of the 91 years since 1918 was this scenario not equally
>> plausible?
>>
>> Except for one thing --  the continual year after year experience with the
>> bug.
>>
>> It's xenophobia and deja vu all over again.  The modern day equivalent of
>> the Witch Craze.
>> If it ain't the Islamofascists, its the Swine Flu and the Chinese.
>>
>>
>> On 6/16/2009 10:52 PM, John Fettig wrote:
>>
>>  http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/influenza/maps/
>>  This is one very valid reason why we need a vaccine.
>> The 1918 virus was mild in the spring, but extremely deadly when the flu season hit.
>>
>>  John
>>
>> On Tue, Jun 16, 2009 at 10:34 PM, Stuart Levy <slevy at ncsa.uiuc.edu>wrote:
>>
>>> On Tue, Jun 16, 2009 at 07:57:52PM -0500, E. Wayne Johnson wrote:
>>> > *<venom>*
>>> >
>>> > If one can set the war aside just for the moment----
>>> >
>>> > The  lies about the so-called A(H1N1) flu virus [aka Swine Flu] ought
>>> to be
>>> > enough by themselves to cause the huddled and befuddled masses to rise
>>> up
>>> > and take torch and manure fork in hand. But, it's only $25 or so for
>>> each
>>> > citizen, so its /very Reasonable/...
>>> > You can't expect our debt-ridden masses to Rise Up for twenty-five
>>> bucks.
>>> >
>>> > But seriously, folks, about 35,000 people in the US die every year from
>>> > P.O.F. (plain old flu) and its manifold complications, every year, year
>>> > after year after year.  So what so unusual about this A(H1N1)?
>>>  Nothing.
>>> > At.  All.
>>>
>>> It does seem to be clear now, but was that clear from the outset?
>>>
>>> I'm not sure whether you're criticizing the residual hysteria,
>>> which seems terrifically wasteful to me too, or the early alarm
>>> in the first few weeks, which seemed reasonable.  Wasn't it?
>>>
>>> As I understand it, the story has been that...
>>>
>>>   - This year's H1N1 is a new variant of a flu virus which has
>>>        crossed from pigs to humans in the past.
>>>
>>>   - Eventually it's expected that *some* animal flu virus,
>>>        to which humans haven't yet adapted and react badly,
>>>        will become transmissible enough among humans to propagate fast,
>>>        and it'll be a big deal.  When that happens, stopping it fast
>>>        will be important.  People today are a lot more mobile than
>>>        in 1918.
>>>
>>>   - This year's H1N1 is transmissible between humans.
>>>        Early on it wasn't clear how transmissible.
>>>
>>>   - This H1N1 was lethal for at least a fair number of people.
>>>        Early on it wasn't clear how lethal.
>>>
>>>   - It was more lethal for young healthy adults than among
>>>        the elderly or children, which is unusual among flu viruses,
>>>        but was true of the very serious 1918 H1N1 variant.
>>>
>>> Is any of that wrong?  Given that early picture, wasn't it
>>> reasonable for public-health people to raise an alarm at the time?
>>>
>>> It's since become clear that this one *isn't* very lethal nor
>>> very transmissible.  It's just a run-of-the-mill flu virus as you say.
>>>
>>> So we don't need to hear in today's national news that someone in
>>> such-and-such city has died of this year's variant -- it's unfortunate,
>>> and it's worth tracking in public health circles, but it shouldn't be
>>> news any more than the daily obituaries are.
>>>
>>> And so it seems we should be mad if we're going to spend $1.5 billion
>>> on fighting *this* H1N1 outbreak, which was the plan when it was put into
>>> the supplemental in late April (when, given what was known then,
>>> it might have been a real emergency, right?).
>>>
>>> If that is still the plan, sure enough, it'll be a ridiculous waste.
>>> We could provide a lot of real public health service, for
>>> tuberculosis or diabetes or drug treatment or whatever, for $1.5 billion.
>>>
>>>
>>> > About 40% of the cases of P.O.F. are caused by A(H1N1) influenza
>>> viruses.
>>> > So that roughly about 35 to 40 deaths every day 24/7/365 are caused by
>>> > Plain Old "A(H1N1)".   While a few odd cases constitutes a Pandemic.
>>> >
>>> > As Costello said, "One of us is NUTS!!!"
>>> >
>>> > So, one might say this whole business of the flu is what is generally
>>> > referred to as a Fraud,  a Scam, an Artifice.
>>> > It's about the m-o-n-e-y...but, it's only about a $100 for a family of
>>> 4.
>>> >
>>> > Plus another $100 or so for the cronies and operatives at the IMF...
>>> [ty!
>>> > :-) ]
>>> >
>>> > &...Enjoy your stimulus...*SUCKERS!!!!*
>>> >
>>> > ****
>>> >
>>> > We now return you to the War, which is already in progress.
>>> >
>>> > *</venom>*
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> Peace-discuss mailing list
>>> Peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net
>>> http://lists.chambana.net/cgi-bin/listinfo/peace-discuss
>>>
>>
>>   ------------------------------
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> Peace-discuss mailing listPeace-discuss at lists.chambana.nethttp://lists.chambana.net/cgi-bin/listinfo/peace-discuss
>>
>>
>>
>
>
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://lists.chambana.net/mailman/archive/peace-discuss/attachments/20090617/d5afa4b2/attachment-0001.html