[Peace-discuss] Diplomatic revolution, to some extent

[C. G. Estabrook]

	Hawks Divided: AfPak or Iran?
	by Jim Lobe and Daniel Luban, May 11, 2009

A potentially major clash appears to be developing between powerful factions 
inside and outside the U.S. government, pitting those who see the 
Afghanistan/Pakistan ("AfPak") theater as the greatest potential threat to U.S. 
national security against those who believe that the danger posed by a nuclear 
Iran must be given priority.

The Iran hawks, concentrated within the Israeli government and its U.S. 
supporters in the so-called Israel lobby here, want to take aggressive action 
against Iran’s nuclear program by moving quickly to a stepped-up sanctions regime.

Many suggest that Israel or the U.S. may ultimately have to use military force 
against Tehran if President Barack Obama’s diplomatic efforts at engagement do 
not result at least in a verifiable freeze – if not a rollback - of the program 
by the end of the year.

Their opponents appear to be concentrated at the Pentagon, where top leaders are 
more concerned with providing a level of regional stability that will allow the 
U.S. to wind down its operations in Iraq, step up its counter-insurgency effort 
in Afghanistan, and, above all, ensure the security of the Pakistani state and 
its nuclear weapons...

[The full article -- which seems to me to over-estimate the influence of the 
"Iran hawks" (their position seems to have been pretty decisively rejected in 
the administration) and, worse, fails to put the administration's real policy in 
the context of its general and constant war aims -- can be found at 
<original.antiwar.com/lobe/2009/05/10/hawks-divided-afpak-or-iran/>. --CGE]


C. G. Estabrook wrote:
> [As usual with stories of this sort, the interesting question is why the 
> sources choose to release them now.  Roughly, these two seem to 
> illustrate how the USG war plans for the Middle East include a 
> rapprochement with Iran -- regardless of of Israel's rage at its 
> regional rival -- so that the war in AfPak can be more vigorously 
> prosecuted, and Iran's acceptance of that role. Iran seems to accept the 
> US view that a "strong Pakistan" = one that follows US orders and is not 
> a source of opposition to effective US occupation of the region. --CGE]
> 
> 
>     Obama to Israel: Don't surprise US with Iran war
>     Thu, 14 May 2009 00:25:01 GMT
> 
> US President Barack Obama has sent a message to the Israeli prime 
> minister to warn him against 'surprising' the US by launching a military 
> attack on Iran.
> 
> A senior US official has met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel 
> to convey Obama's message, Haaretz reported on Thursday.
> 
> Obama, in his message, voiced US's concern about a possible Israeli war 
> against Iran.
> 
> The Americans do not want to face the facts on the ground at the last 
> minute, President Obama reportedly said in his message.
> 
> The message seems to be so urgent that Obama preferred not to wait for 
> Netanyahu's visit to Washington that is scheduled for next Monday.
> 
> The new Israeli government has vowed to halt Iran's nuclear program, 
> even through launching military attacks on the country's nuclear 
> facilities.
> 
> Israel, which is the only possessor of nuclear weapons in the Middle 
> East, accuses Iran of trying to develop nuclear weapons.
> 
> Tehran has repeatedly declared that its nuclear program is aimed at 
> civilian purposes.
> 
> http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=94657&sectionid=351020104
> 
>     Iran favors a 'strong Pakistan'
>     Wed, 13 May 2009 23:17:28 GMT
> 
> Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has highlighted the 
> importance of 'a strong Pakistan' for the Muslim world.
> 
> "A strong and stable Pakistan will have a high importance to the Muslim 
> world," Mottaki said in a meeting with Chief Minister of Punjab 
> Province, Shahbaz Sharif, in Tehran on Wednesday.
> 
> The top Iranian diplomat added that Iran regards Pakistan's security as 
> its own security.
> 
> Mottaki stressed that insecurity in Pakistan and Afghanistan will not 
> affect only those countries and that it could spread to other countries.
> 
> Sharif also called for the expansion of ties between Iran and Pakistan 
> in different fields.
> 
> The Pakistani official also briefed Mottaki on the latest developments 
> in Pakistan.
> 
> http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=94651&sectionid=351020101
> 
>     ###
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