[Peace-discuss] The Iraqi front

[Morton K. Brussel]

And no mention here of the American presence in Iraq, and how it  
affects Iraqi politics???

---mkb

On Oct 26, 2009, at 12:06 AM, C. G. Estabrook wrote:

> 	Patrick Cockburn: Iraq is safer – but by no means safe
> 	Police know bombers are difficult to stop, and awards
> 	are likely to be posthumous
> 	Monday, 26 October 2009
>
> The savage suicide bombings in the heart of Baghdad yesterday show  
> how far the violence in Iraq is from being over. It is as if those  
> who order these bombings know that they only have to repeat these  
> atrocities every couple of months to destabilise the country.
>
> The government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki makes itself even  
> more vulnerable by boasting that it is improving security. Iraq is a  
> safer place than it was three years ago, but it is still one of the  
> more dangerous places in the world.
>
> There is no need to imagine that the slaughter in Haifa Street  
> yesterday was because American troops withdrew from the cities of  
> Iraq three months ago. With or without US troops, the bombers have  
> been able to get through in Baghdad ever since they destroyed the UN  
> headquarters in 2003.
>
> Suicide car bombings, even when the driver is not planning to  
> detonate his deadly cargo personally, are extremely difficult to  
> stop. Remember the success the Provisional IRA had in the 1990s in  
> targeting much smaller areas in the city of London and Canary Wharf.
>
> After a bomb eviscerated the Iraqi Foreign Ministry on 19 August the  
> Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said its passage must have been  
> helped by collaborators at army and police checkpoints. This may be  
> true. But it is impossible for Iraqi security to search every  
> vehicle, especially as bombers will have made sure that their papers  
> are in order. It will also have occurred to Iraqi soldiers and  
> policemen that any awards for stopping a suicide bomber are likely  
> to be posthumous. Enthusiasm for investigating suspicious vehicles  
> is limited.
>
> The bombings do not by themselves prove that Iraq remains unstable.  
> Unfortunately, there are other pointers such as the failure of 1.6  
> million internally displaced people to return to their homes. A  
> study by the International Organisation on Migration explains why  
> these internal Iraqi refugees are not going home. It says that  
> security may have got better but refugees are still trying to  
> survive "without work, their own home, schooling for children,  
> access to water, electricity and health care".
>
> Who is behind the bombings? Almost certainly it is some cell of al- 
> Qa'ida, possibly acting with the guidance or help of the Baath party  
> or the security service of the old regime. Al-Qa'ida is not as  
> strong as it was in 2007, but then it does not have to be to create  
> mayhem.
>
> The main problem in Iraq is that there is no fundamental agreement  
> between the three main communities: the Shia, the Sunni Arabs and  
> the Kurds. Each group is still looking for the weak points of the  
> others. The Shia are three-fifths of the population, benefited from  
> the overthrow of the predominantly-Sunni regime of Saddam Hussein  
> and were largely victorious in the sectarian battle for Baghdad in  
> 2005-7. This does not mean that the Sunni, who make up a fifth of  
> the population, do not retain the strength to destabilise the  
> government unless they get the share of power that they want.
>
> Iraqis themselves tend to see the never-ending violence as a sign  
> that their neighbours intend to prevent the re-emergence of a strong  
> Iraq. Iran would like another Shia state in the Gulf, but it does  
> not want a powerful government to resurrect itself in Baghdad. Saudi  
> Arabia has long been aghast at seeing Iraq becoming the first Shia  
> government in the Arab world since Saladin overthrew the Fatimids.  
> Kuwait is still taking part of Iraq's desperately needed oil  
> revenues in compensation for its losses in the first Gulf War.
>
> A further problem is Iraq's undermining the political and economic  
> reconstruction. The country has had 30 years of war, rebellion and  
> economic sanctions. Iraq truly is a broken society. The state is  
> dysfunctional. There is some good news: the price of oil has risen  
> to $80 a barrel. But even relatively peaceful cities like Basra are  
> full of people who are not being paid. The government is failing to  
> heal the deep wounds of the past. Yesterday's bombings – the  
> deadliest in two years – shows how far Iraq is from solving its  
> problems.
>
> http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/patrick-cockburn-iraq-is-safer-ndash-but-by-no-means-safe-1809434.html
> _______________________________________________
> Peace-discuss mailing list
> Peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net
> http://lists.chambana.net/cgi-bin/listinfo/peace-discuss