[Peace-discuss] UCS on Chernobyl, Fukushima

[E. Wayne Johnson]

Mort, does the K. stand for Potassium?

I think you mean Iodine.

(potassium iodide? oK?   sodium iodide?  NAh?)


On 4/8/2011 11:45 PM, Morton K. Brussel wrote:
> Yes, this was serious, and could have been avoided if potassium had 
> been administered in time to children. The Japanese appear to have 
> learned the lesson. --mkb
>
> On Apr 7, 2011, at 11:31 PM, C. G. Estabrook wrote:
>
>> "Apart from the dramatic increase in thyroid cancer incidence among 
>> those exposed at a young age..."!
>>
>> Obviously there's no reason to consider them.
>>
>>
>> On 4/7/11 11:22 PM, Morton K. Brussel wrote:
>>> This report is a snow job, and is not confirmed by other world 
>>> authorities on the Chernobyl accident.
>>> Right up front UCS states:
>>>
>>> /The international expert group predicts that among the 600 000 
>>> persons receiving more significant exposures (liquidators working in 
>>> 1986-87, evacuees, and residents of the most ‘contaminated’ areas), 
>>> the possible increase in cancer mortality due to this radiation 
>>> exposure might be *up to *a few per cent. This might eventually 
>>> represent *up to* four thousand fatal cancers in addition to the 
>>> approximately 100 000 fatal cancers to be expected due to all other 
>>> causes in this population. Among the 5 million persons residing in 
>>> other ‘contaminated’ areas, the doses are much lower and any 
>>> projected increases are more speculative, but are expected to make a 
>>> difference *of less than* one per cent in cancer mortality./
>>> /
>>> /
>>> Note the words/ "up to" on the third and fourth lines, and "of less 
>>> than in the final sentence, meaning the result might well be zero! 
>>> Pretty sneaky  to use this for the their conclusions. UCS has led a 
>>> campaign against nuclear power for some time. /
>>> /
>>> /
>>> /Aside from that, one can consult a comprehensive review from the 
>>> Chernobyl Forum, 2003, a large collaboration from world health 
>>> authorities, which states:/
>>> /
>>> /
>>> /
>>> /Apart from the dramatic increase in thyroid cancer incidence among 
>>> those exposed at /
>>> / /
>>> /a young age, there is no clearly demonstrated increase in the 
>>> incidence of solid cancers /
>>> / /
>>> /or leukaemia due to radiation in the most affected populations. 
>>> There was, however, /
>>> / /
>>> /an increase in psychological problems among the affected 
>>> population, compounded /
>>> / /
>>> /economic depression that followed the break-up of the Soviet Union./
>>> / /
>>> /It is impossible to assess reliably, with any precision, numbers of 
>>> fatal cancers caused /
>>> / /
>>> /by radiation exposure due to the Chernobyl accident — or indeed the 
>>> impact of the /
>>> / /
>>> /stress and anxiety induced by the accident and the response to it. 
>>> Small differences in /
>>> / /
>>> /the assumptions concerning radiation risks can lead to large 
>>> differences in the predicted/
>>> / /
>>> /health consequences, which are therefore highly uncertain. …//
>>> //
>>> //
>>> /
>>> /
>>> Quoting another report from the World Health Organization (2006):
>>>
>>> /Apart from the large increase in thyroid cancer incidence in young 
>>> people, *there are at present no clearly demonstrated 
>>> radiation-related increases in cancer risk.* This should not, 
>>> however, be interpreted to mean that no increase has in fact 
>>> occurred: based on the experience of other populations exposed to 
>>> ionising radiation, a small increase in the relative risk of cancer 
>>> is expected, even at the low to moderate doses received. Although it 
>>> is expected that epidemiological studies will have difficulty 
>>> identifying such a risk, it may nevertheless translate into a 
>>> substantial number of radiation-related cancer cases in the future, 
>>> given the very large number of individuals exposed./
>>> /
>>> /
>>> Definitive conclusions, therefore are hard to come by, so quoting 
>>> cancer related deaths in the multiple thousands and above, as UCS 
>>> does, is irresponsible/. /One might furthermore note that the 
>>> estimates on which most of these reports are based use the LNT 
>>> model, which is unproven for low radiation doses.
>>> /
>>> /
>>> /--mkb/
>>> /
>>> /
>>>
>>> On Apr 7, 2011, at 2:45 PM, C. G. Estabrook wrote:
>>>
>>>> Two noteworthy articles from the Union of Concerned Scientists, one on
>>>> careful calculation of excess cancer deaths from Chernobyl, the 
>>>> other on
>>>> internal documents obtained from NRC via FOIA showing concerns about
>>>> station blackout prior to Fukushima catastrophe:
>>>>
>>>> http://allthingsnuclear.org/tagged/Japan_nuclear
>>>>
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>>>
>
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