[Peace-discuss] [sf-core] Fwd: analysis of the Irish election

[jrbarret at illinois.edu]

Thank you, Andrew, for all of this. I will try to maintain optimism about the new government.  The worry was whether Labour, in entering a government with FG, will get stuck supporting the sorts of measures that killed the last government -- and, of course, hurt so many working people in Ireland. The encouraging thing is that there is some base for oppositional politics in Ireland.  I hope it does not stretch optimism too far in hoping that we might be beginning to see some of that here in the US.

Jim

---- Original message ----
>Date: Sun, 27 Feb 2011 13:51:56 -0500
>From: "Dr. Andrew Ó Baoill" <andrew at funferal.org>  
>Subject: Re: [sf-core] Fwd: analysis of the Irish election  
>To: Socialist Forum <sf-core at yahoogroups.com>
>Cc: Peace-discuss <peace-discuss at anti-war.net>
>
>    
>
>   A good question - and a good observation.
>
>   In reality, there is little likelihood of
>   cooperation amongst those on the Left, and it's
>   almost certain that Labour will be in government,
>   and all the other Leftwing representatives will be
>   in opposition. I see two sets of reasons for this:
>   electoral math, and internecine tensions in the Left
>   that go back decades.
>
>   Electoral math:
>   1 Fine Gael are going to be about 10 seats short of
>   an overall majority. This essentially eliminates the
>   possibility of a government without them. You would
>   need every other party to band together to create a
>   government, including the detested Fianna Fail, Sinn
>   Fein (who really want to continue in opposition),
>   all the United Left, etc. (At most you could lose a
>   handful of independents along with FG, but with so
>   many groupings you wouldn't want a razor-thin
>   majority.) In other words, that's not happening.
>   2 Fine Gael have few options other than Labour: they
>   won't go in with FF, both because it's toxic to any
>   potential partner, and because civil war politics
>   are still an active factor in relationships between
>   those parties. (FG and FF are seen to represent the
>   two main factions in the 1922 war, and that
>   reverberates both through the parliamentary parties
>   and the local organizations). Sinn Fein and FG don't
>   work nicely together - both because of divergence on
>   the 'national question' and other issues. FG could
>   cobble together an alliance with various
>   independents, but several leading members,
>   post-election, have referenced the undesirability of
>   repeating FF's reliance on politicians willing to
>   extort the national government for better-filled
>   potholes in their local area. (Incidentally: the
>   clientelism of Irish politics is, even at a time of
>   national crisis, endemic.)
>
>   So that leaves Labour and FG, who have been in
>   rather fraught coalitions on various occasions
>   (1948-1951, 1954-1957, 1973-1977, 1981, 1982-1987,
>   1994-1997), the only times when FF has not been in
>   power in the past 79 years). I should note that
>   Labour was in government with FF from 1992-1994, and
>   while it fell (due to a complicated scandal
>   involving judicial appointments) it was, overall, a
>   good government, with great developments on civil
>   liberties, and the start of the current peace
>   process. (It was also an era of economic growth and
>   development - and the claim by Labour that the
>   1992-1997 era, when Labour was in government, was
>   one of 'real' growth, as opposed to the bubbles that
>   followed, seems a reasonable interpretation of the
>   statistics.)
>
>   Left in-fighting:
>   1 Joe Higgins, who leads the Socialist Party, left
>   the Labour Party as a result of purges in the 1980s,
>   when the 'secret party within a party' that was
>   militant was rooted out. There are younger figures
>   (Boyd-Barrett, who's the best-known figure of
>   'People Before Profit', comes to mind), but a lot of
>   the senior figures in various groups have been
>   arguing with each other for 30 years or more, and
>   aren't necessarily minded to compromise or work
>   together.
>   2 While Labour is generally seen as reform-oriented,
>   focused on achieving some power, to exercise what
>   influence it can, many of the smaller Left parties
>   are pretty much committed to not entering coalition,
>   and given their total numbers (SP and PBP will each
>   have 2 seats out of 166, which represents a great
>   increase for them) that only leaves opposition. That
>   makes it difficult for Labour and the other Left
>   parties to have conversations about how to
>   coordinate their activities:
>   - SP and PBP will not support a government that
>   contains FG or FF in return for concessions, and see
>   Labour's involvement in such a government as making
>   them complicit as class traitors. It's worth noting
>   that even though Labour will have its biggest
>   showing ever, the greater size of FG (and the lack
>   of other options) means that the party is likely to
>   only have 5 seats in cabinet, out of 15, as opposed
>   to the 6 it had between 1992 and 1997 in two
>   different coalitions).
>   - Labour sees SP and PBP as either naive (believing
>   that the revolution is just around the corner, and
>   interpreting a joint vote of 2.2% as heralding a new
>   era) or cynical (knowing that they're not going to
>   implement any of their policies, because they aren't
>   going to be in power, and therefore not feeling
>   constrained to construct policy platforms that bear
>   any relationship to reality). (In truth I'd charge
>   Sinn Fein with cynicism on this front, rather than
>   PBP or SP. The claim recently by Sinn Fein that just
>   refusing to pay back any of the national debt would
>   "have no (negative) impact whatsoever" was one
>   example.)
>   3 Apart from Joe Higgins' leaving/expulsion from the
>   Labour Party, various other of the splits on the
>   Left are very personal: people who have left after
>   not being selected as candidates, or after not
>   feeling sufficiently supported in their candidacies.
>   Far too much of Irish politics is about petty
>   personality issues, on the Left and more generally.
>
>   I'd note that there has been cooperation on the Left
>   in the past. Through the 1980s, the 'second tier' of
>   the Left was occupied by The Workers' Party, a
>   Marxist party that had emerged from a split within
>   Sinn Fein in 1970. After the revolutions in Eastern
>   Europe, most of TWP split off to form Democratic
>   Left (via various interim titles), and that party
>   eventually took part in coalition with FG and Labour
>   from 1994-1997, and after the 1997 election
>   Democratic Left and Labour merged to form the Labour
>   Party of today.
>
>   Andrew
>
>   On 2011 Feabh 27, at 12:24, <jrbarret at illinois.edu>
>   wrote:
>
>   > Thank you, Andrew and Carl. It is remarkable how
>   little attention the election results are getting,
>   even on the Left. Andrew, it may be a naive
>   question, but if Labour enters the government with
>   FG does that not reduce the prospects for the sort
>   of borad Left cooperation you mention in your note?
>   The cooperation to the left of Labour is really very
>   encouraging, but the numbers are still small without
>   Labour. If the latter were to move to the left
>   rather than further right, FG would have a difficult
>   time pursuing the sort of austerity measures they
>   are likely to advance -- NO?
>   >
>   > Thanks again.
>   >
>   > Jim Barrett
>   >
>   > ---- Original message ----
>   >> Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2011 19:17:44 -0500
>   >> From: "Dr. Andrew Ó Baoill"
>   <andrew at funferal.org>
>   >> Subject: Re: [sf-core] Fwd: analysis of the Irish
>   election
>   >> To: Socialist Forum <sf-core at yahoogroups.com>
>   >> Cc: Peace-discuss <peace-discuss at anti-war.net>
>   >>
>   >>
>   >>
>   >> Thanks for forwarding this to the list Carl. It's
>   a
>   >> weird election, and bitter-sweet for myself and
>   many
>   >> of those I've been talking with today.
>   >> The Labour Party, of which I'm a member, looks
>   set
>   >> to have one of its biggest representations ever:
>   >> with about 1/2 the seats yet to declare it's
>   already
>   >> gained more seats than it had after the last
>   >> election. It looks set to have between 30 and 40
>   >> seats, which will make it the second-largest
>   party
>   >> in the Dáil for the first time since 1928. It's
>   a
>   >> member of the PES, and ranges from social
>   democrat
>   >> to democratic socialist in its membership. The
>   >> parties further to the left will also see growth,
>   >> including the Socialist Party and People Before
>   >> Profit, and might well reach 7. It should be
>   noted
>   >> that the parliamentary rules do allow them to
>   work
>   >> with other small groupings to create a
>   'technical'
>   >> group, so that's almost certain to occur.
>   >> I'd agree with the analysis of your source about
>   >> Sinn Fein - the party postures as Left, but has
>   been
>   >> happily working with conservative parties in the
>   >> North for some time, and is understood by many to
>   be
>   >> more interested in rhetorical positions it sees
>   as
>   >> giving it electoral advantage, than in actual
>   Left
>   >> policies. As an example, the party (rather
>   quietly)
>   >> supported the bailout of the Irish banks over the
>   >> past few years, voting for the move at key times.
>   >> (Labour, in contrast, was the only party in the
>   >> Dáil to oppose the bailout.) This is a party for
>   >> which the 'national question' is the primary
>   >> motivating factor. As I write the party holds 8
>   >> seats, and might even double the seats it had in
>   the
>   >> last Dáil. (It had five entering the election.)
>   >> Apart from the frustrating growth in Fine Gael, a
>   >> center-right party affiliated with the Christian
>   >> Democrats (traditionally gaining support from
>   >> professionals and large farmers, and which seems
>   to
>   >> be moving further to the right on economic and
>   >> social issues), there's a second issue to be
>   noted:
>   >> while Fianna Fáil has seen its vote collapse,
>   >> several of the new independents are 'gene pool'
>   >> candidates - that is, they are former FF members
>   >> (sometimes until very recently) who ran as
>   >> independents, avoiding the taint of the party,
>   but
>   >> with the same centrist/faux populist background.
>   >> Even with this, you could be looking at a FF
>   party
>   >> (even after the reabsorb many of those gene pool
>   >> independents) that will be about 1/3 the size of
>   the
>   >> outgoing party (so sitting around 25 rather than
>   >> around 75). A broad left (Labour / SF / ULA) of
>   >> almost 50 seats. FG are predicted, at present, to
>   >> end up around 75 seats. We're likely to see
>   Labour
>   >> in government with FG (as FF are toxic as
>   potential
>   >> partners for either FG or Labour at present, and
>   >> neither party has the numbers to build a
>   coalition
>   >> with any other combination of partners).
>   >> Andrew
>   >> On 2011 Feabh 26, at 17:58, C. G. ESTABROOK
>   wrote:
>   >>
>   >>
>   >>
>   >> -------- Original Message --------
>   >> Subject: [lbo-talk] First results announced in
>   >> Irish general election
>   >> Date: Sat, 26 Feb 2011 22:38:47 +0000 (GMT)
>   >> From: cmk1 at eircom.net
>   >> Reply-To: lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org
>   >> To: lbo-talk at lbo-talk.org
>   >>
>   >> Don't read too much into the apparent victory of
>   >> the neo-liberal Fine Gael. The
>   >> next Irish parliament will have the largest ever
>   >> left representation. The United
>   >> Left Alliance already has four seats secured;
>   once
>   >> it gets to seven it can form
>   >> a so-called 'technical group' which means it must
>   >> be given a certain segment of
>   >> speaking time (thus overcoming 'quaint' liberal
>   >> democratic parliamentary rules
>   >> designed to ensure small left parties make no
>   >> impact).
>   >>
>   >> It looks like the Socialist Workers Party's
>   >> Richard Boyd Barrett might just
>   >> secure a seat. Mick Wallace has been elected in
>   >> Wexford. An utter oddity from a
>   >> conventional left perspective. A big property
>   >> developer over the past twenty
>   >> years, he has been sympathetic to left groups
>   >> allowing huge banners stating
>   >> 'People Before Profit' to be draped over the
>   >> scaffolding of his sites in Dublin;
>   >> he has provided the Communist Party with arguably
>   >> the snazziest bookshop in
>   >> Dublin, and he has employed Turkish construction
>   >> workers who were sacked by the
>   >> building firm GAMA when they blew the whistle on
>   >> this extreme low-pay and
>   >> exploitation.
>   >>
>   >> Sinn Fein will also be strongly represented in
>   the
>   >> next Dáil; and they have
>   >> consistently argued outside of the dominant
>   >> sado-monetarist orthodoxy. While I
>   >> personally wouldn't regard them as 'Left' wing,
>   >> many other Irish people would
>   >> have no hesitation in doing so. And in Gerry
>   Adams
>   >> who has been elected in the
>   >> Louth constituency, they will be led by one of
>   the
>   >> most important figures in
>   >> recent Irish history.
>   >>
>   >> Also, the desertion of Fianna Fáil by Irish
>   >> workers will be a real boon for the
>   >> socialist Left in years to come. This party's
>   >> dominance since 1932 has been
>   >> based upon its ability to cultivate a mass
>   working
>   >> class backing. It's recent
>   >> embrace of extreme neo-liberal austerity means
>   >> that backing in gone, and the
>   >> material conditions in Ireland are such that the
>   >> working class will never return
>   >> to Fianna Fáil in numbers again.
>   >>
>   >> Yes, an avowedly Thatcherite party will lead the
>   >> next government and some of its
>   >> prominent members - Leo Varadkar, Lucinda
>   >> Creighton, Richard Bruton, Simon
>   >> Coveney - would fit right in with the UK Tories
>   or
>   >> the Republicans. But things
>   >> have changed immensely in Ireland, it's game on
>   >> for the Left and the next few
>   >> years will be mighty interesting.
>   >>
>   >> ###
>   >>
>   >>
>
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