[Peace-discuss] persistence of data

Sun Jul 24 19:20:52 CDT 2011

I don't think there's any doubt that there are long-term climate changes, 
including warming and cooling trends. And the historical record seems clear that 
these trends have social effects.

In Europe, the Medieval Warm Period (aka the "Medieval Climate Optimum") - e.g, 
England was a major wine-producer in in the 12th & 13th centuries - was perhaps 
the most important factor in the great cultural efflorescence of the High Middle 
Ages. It was reversed by the climate changes of the 14th century (bad harvests, 
a Malthusian crisis, and the conditions conducive to the spread of bubonic 
plague), which brought the medieval mode of production to an end and led to the 
rise of capitalism.

It's also agreed that the Little Ice Age was a period of cooling that occurred 
after the Medieval Warm Period. The term LIA was introduced by François E. 
Matthes in 1939. It is conventionally defined as a period extending from the 
16th to the 19th centuries. NASA considers the term to refer to a cold period 
between 1550 CE and 1850 CE and notes three particularly cold intervals: one 
beginning about 1650, another about 1770, and the last in 1850, each separated 
by intervals of slight warming.

It also seems that we're in the midst of another warming trend.  The question is 
whether it's anthropogenic. Has industrialization added to what may be a normal 
fluctuation? It would seem reasonable, but it some sense it doesn't matter too 
much: we need to control industrial pollution, the externalities of industrial 
production, and that can be done only by concerted government action.  Driving a 
Prius doesn't make much difference, but neither does condemning the heretics who 
have turned away from the great god AGW.

Climatologists have only interpreted the world; the task is to change it.

On 7/24/11 6:15 PM, E. Wayne Johnson wrote:
> I dont think it's a conspiracy, I think that it is Fraud.
>
> But thanks for the links.
>
>
>
>
> On 7/25/2011 7:02 AM, Morton K. Brussel wrote:
>> Read the IPCC report, or its summary. Another will be coming out soon. Here 
>> are other sources, with data.
>>
>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming
>>
>> http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/
>>
>> http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.shtml
>>
>> There are many others, but deniers like you refuse to accept the scientific 
>> data and their arguments. There is overwhelming consensus on this from the 
>> climate/scientific community. It is not a conspiracy.
>>
>> And I have no idea what you are talking about ("same cats") in your last 
>> paragraph. It's nonsense.
>>
>> --mkb
>>
>>
>>
>> On Jul 24, 2011, at 4:41 PM, E. Wayne Johnson ??? wrote:
>>
>>> Urbana is a completely unprotected location on vast flat terrain
>>> with no buffering body of water nearby.
>>>
>>> There is good mixing of air with winds coming from all directions.
>>> Urbana appears to be a reasonable sample.
>>>
>>> Indeed it is only one point on the big grid, but it has lots of data,
>>> and one should see /something/ if there is a major shift going on.
>>>
>>> After all, every cloudburst cyclone heatwave dryspell and blizzard
>>> is the result of "climate change" if one believes the media.
>>>
>>> Denier seems to suggest that belief in AGW (like that in GWB) is a matter of 
>>> faith.
>>> I would rather say I am not a denier but rather am unconvinced by the lack of
>>> a thread of evidence.  All the warping and woofing is not convincing me that
>>> it's not all made up of whole cloth.
>>>
>>> The fray is relevant here because those same cats who gave us the endless war,
>>> the end of democracy, and economic-financial terrorism want to bring us
>>> embroidered eco-authoritarianism under the cloak of some general good.
>>>
>>> They have a motive.
>>>
>>> Where's the data?
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On 07/25/11 2:02, Morton K. Brussel wrote:
>>>> It doesn't seem like anything dramatic is happening in these two plots, although they are somewhat hard for the interpretation of any trends, if any existed.
>>>>
>>>> But the far more important point is that Urbana is but one point on the global map. No conclusions can be made from any one location. The global data on temperature and related events are conclusive that warming has been occurring, and, moreover, scientist studying the climate know there are physical reasons why.
>>>>
>>>> I'm surprised you are (still?) a denier.
>>>>
>>>> --Mort
>>>>
>>>> On Jul 24, 2011, at 1:13 AM, E. Wayne Johnson ??? wrote:
>>>>
>>>>    
>>>>> Urbana is pretty much the center of the meterologic universe as judged by the meteorism that
>>>>> typifies its city government.  Thus it's temperature data can be used for global inferences about
>>>>> climatic trends.
>>>>>
>>>>> Urbana is the furthest northern point at which I ever domiciled, and I always felt as if there was nothing
>>>>> between Urbana and the north pole except an ill-maintained barb-wire fence.
>>>>>
>>>>> If there really were such a thing as global warming, it would have to be for the
>>>>> benefit of Urbana's frozen few.  The Urbana Water Survey has the daily temperature data
>>>>> to tell for the asking all the way back to the Gay90's.
>>>>>
>>>>> The plot below shows the daily minimum temperatures (T min)for
>>>>> days below 10F (very cold days under my assumption of what is "cold").
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> <moz-screenshot-9.png>
>>>>>
>>>>> My great-grandmother told me about the terrible winters of her childhood in the
>>>>> late 19th century.  1977 and 1978 were truly awful for sure, but not the coldest it seems.
>>>>> There might be some rough suggestion of periodicity, but one needs a few
>>>>> hundred years more data to work it out clearly.  The relatively mild winters
>>>>> of the 1940 to 1970 were still pretty cold.  One doesnt find any trend
>>>>> suggesting a permanent reprieve from the ravages of those nasty Urbana winters.
>>>>>
>>>>> *
>>>>>
>>>>> The international media are suggesting that AGW is verified by the heat waves
>>>>> that plague the United States.  Below I present the incidence and intensity
>>>>> of hot (>92F) days in Urbana.  Keillor says that on really hot days the cats go to the basement
>>>>> and put their feet in the air.  Such data is not readily available and there could be many variables,
>>>>> particularly since most cats dislike water, and do generate CO2 and other volatilities.
>>>>>
>>>>> One has to make do with the available data.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> <???1.JPG>
>>>>>
>>>>> I was in-utero for most of 1954 but I don't recall my mother complaining about the heat,
>>>>> although she did take me to the doctor because of my profuse perspiration which has
>>>>> been a lifetime condition so far.
>>>>>
>>>>> I have heard stories about 1936.  A certain Mr. J.N. Irvin of Hamilton County
>>>>> told me that it was so hot in 1936 that he and his brother used to dig
>>>>> holes in the yard and sleep in the dust just to stay cool.  The data supports his remembrance
>>>>> and perhaps the behaviour as well.  They didn't have electricity in Twigg Twp in '36
>>>>> let alone AC or even Tang Dynasty fans for Anthropogenic Local Cooling.
>>>>> They say that in Iowa it was so hot the children used to wet the bed to stay cool.
>>>>>
>>>>> The inconvenient truth seems to be that there is no trend toward any sort of
>>>>> warming as judged from Urbana other than the typical cycling progression of the seasons previously
>>>>> observed by Enoch.
>>>>>
>>>>> There is also a persistent lack of persistence of memory and maybe some soft clocks.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>>> Peace-discuss mailing list
>>>>> Peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net
>>>>> http://lists.chambana.net/mailman/listinfo/peace-discuss
>>>>>      
>>>>    
>>>
>>
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