[Peace-discuss] at Daily Kos: If We Cut Aid to Egypt's Military, Would We Die?

[Robert Naiman]

I wish it were true about Gaza. But unfortunately it is not, I don't think
- not that the behavior of the Israeli military wasn't as extreme in an
objective sense, but that it was not widely perceived in the same way in
the U.S. Many more Americans know and understand what has happened in Egypt
than knew and understood what happened in Gaza, including the role of the
U.S.

I agree that the consequences of withdrawing the aid are unknown. But the
actual dollar number is not, I don't think, the whole story. U.S. aid
brings access to "prestige" U.S. weapons. U.S. military aid is widely
perceived as a U.S. "seal of approval." The withdrawal of U.S. military aid
is likely to have a knock-on effect in Europe and at the IMF and the World
Bank. It might also have an impact on Egyptian elite opinion. We don't
know; it's uncharted terrain. If nothing else, it would be a good learning
experience. And if it's a jump ball, we should cancel it. There are
certainly more productive uses for $1.3 billion.





On Mon, Aug 19, 2013 at 5:37 PM, Carl G. Estabrook <galliher at illinois.edu>wrote:

> Of course, the behavior of the Israeli military in Gaza was "so extreme
> that it's pretty hard to explain (justify) the policy of supporting the
> [Israeli] military in any kind of public forum." Nevertheless, Obama et al.
> managed it.
>
> It's not even clear that the threat of withdrawing the $1.3 billion the US
> gives the Egyptian military annually would mean very much, except as
> propaganda. The US' other chief client in the region, Saudi Arabia, and the
> GCC give much more than that each year, and Saudi Arabia has already said
> that they will step in to "help Egypt" (i.e., fund the military) "if
> Western nations cut aid packages to Cairo over a crackdown on extremists."
>
> After all, what's a client for?
>
>
> On Aug 19, 2013, at 5:13 PM, Robert Naiman <naiman at justforeignpolicy.org>
> wrote:
>
> If nothing else, this precedent is going to be extremely useful the next
> time we are told we must bomb or invade country X because of human rights.
> So, it's in our long-term interest to make the current juncture as big a
> scandal as possible. And, I think the outcome is uncertain once it comes
> into the spotlight. The behavior of the Egyptian military is so extreme
> that it's pretty hard to explain (justify) the policy of supporting the
> Egyptian military in any kind of public forum. That will cause the Obama
> Administration to try to triangulate, and in a volatile situation,
> triangulation could have unpredictable consequences. For example, the Obama
> Administration has refused to call the coup a coup, but says it is going to
> implement the law as if it had made a determination that a coup had taken
> place. The consequences of that if the Egyptian military does not change
> course are not totally predictable.
>
>
>
> On Mon, Aug 19, 2013 at 4:55 PM, Carl G. Estabrook <galliher at illinois.edu>wrote:
>
>> But it's not 'the Pentagon' as an independent actor that's setting
>> policy. The policy of controlling the world's major energy producing region
>> (including the governments that emerge from the Arab Spring) is set by -
>> and for the benefit of - the American 1%, and enacted by its chief minion,
>> the US president.
>>
>> They have no interest in "restoring democracy," except under the
>> specialized definition where (1) democracy = doing want the US government
>> demands, and (2) the appearance (but usually not the reality) of democracy
>> is helpful in getting a population to acquiesce in USG policy rather than
>> pursuing their own interests.
>>
>> But of course you're right that we should demand that the Obama
>> administration stop paying for murder and terror in Egypt, as part of the
>> demand that it stop committing murder and terror around the world.
>>
>> --CGE
>>
>> On Aug 19, 2013, at 2:51 PM, Robert Naiman <naiman at justforeignpolicy.org>
>> wrote:
>>
>>
>> Suppose that the U.S. cut off aid to Egypt's military, as required by
>> U.S. law, and suppose that in retaliation the Egyptian military said to the
>> Pentagon, "OK, big boy, from now on you have to give us the same notice for
>> overflights as you give everybody else, and your warships have to wait in
>> line at Suez just like all the other ships." And suppose this continued
>> until democracy was restored.
>>
>> I can certainly see how that would be sad for the Pentagon. But from the
>> point of view of everyone else in America who isn't the Pentagon - everyone
>> who has to stand in line all the time - would it be so terrible? Would we
>> die? Could we somehow muddle through?
>>
>>
>> http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/08/19/1232299/-If-We-Cut-Aid-to-Egypt-s-Military-Would-We-Die
>>
>>
>> --
>> Robert Naiman
>> Policy Director
>> Just Foreign Policy
>> www.justforeignpolicy.org
>> naiman at justforeignpolicy.org
>>
>>
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>>
>>
>
>
> --
> Robert Naiman
> Policy Director
> Just Foreign Policy
> www.justforeignpolicy.org
> naiman at justforeignpolicy.org
>
>
>


-- 
Robert Naiman
Policy Director
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org
naiman at justforeignpolicy.org
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