[Peace-discuss] NYT: How Egypt's "deep state" prepared the ground for military coup

[Robert Naiman]

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/11/world/middleeast/improvements-in-egypt-suggest-a-campaign-that-undermined-morsi.html

The New York Times
July 10, 2013
Sudden Improvements in Egypt Suggest a Campaign to Undermine Morsi

By BEN HUBBARD and DAVID D. KIRKPATRICK

CAIRO — The streets seethe with protests and government ministers are on
the run or in jail, but since the military ousted President Mohamed Morsi,
life has somehow gotten better for many people across Egypt: Gas lines have
disappeared, power cuts have stopped and the police have returned to the
street.

The apparently miraculous end to the crippling energy shortages, and the
re-emergence of the police, seems to show that the legions of personnel
left in place after former President Hosni Mubarak was ousted in 2011
played a significant role — intentionally or not — in undermining the
overall quality of life under the Islamist administration of Mr. Morsi.

And as the interim government struggles to unite a divided nation, the
Muslim Brotherhood and Mr. Morsi’s supporters say the sudden turnaround
proves that their opponents conspired to make Mr. Morsi fail. Not only did
police officers seem to disappear, but the state agencies responsible for
providing electricity and ensuring gas supplies failed so fundamentally
that gas lines and rolling blackouts fed widespread anger and frustration.

“This was preparing for the coup,” said Naser el-Farash, who served as the
spokesman for the Ministry of Supply and Internal Trade under Mr. Morsi.
“Different circles in the state, from the storage facilities to the cars
that transport petrol products to the gas stations, all participated in
creating the crisis.”

Working behind the scenes, members of the old establishment, some of them
close to Mr. Mubarak and the country’s top generals, also helped finance,
advise and organize those determined to topple the Islamist leadership,
including Naguib Sawiris, a billionaire and an outspoken foe of the
Brotherhood; Tahani El-Gebali, a former judge on the Supreme Constitutional
Court who is close to the ruling generals; and Shawki al-Sayed, a legal
adviser to Ahmed Shafik, Mr. Mubarak’s last prime minister, who lost the
presidential race to Mr. Morsi.

But it is the police returning to the streets that offers the most blatant
sign that the institutions once loyal to Mr. Mubarak held back while Mr.
Morsi was in power. Throughout his one-year tenure, Mr. Morsi struggled to
appease the police, even alienating his own supporters rather than trying
to overhaul the Interior Ministry. But as crime increased and traffic
clogged roads — undermining not only the quality of life, but the economy —
the police refused to deploy fully.

Until now.

White-clad officers have returned to Cairo’s streets, and security forces —
widely despised before and after the revolution — intervened with tear gas
and shotguns against Islamists during widespread street clashes last week,
leading anti-Morsi rioters to laud them as heroes. Posters have gone up
around town showing a police officer surrounded by smiling children over
the words “Your security is our mission, your safety our goal.”

“You had officers and individuals who were working under a specific policy
that was against Islamic extremists and Islamists in general,” said Ihab
Youssef, a retired police officer who runs a professional association for
the security forces. “Then all of a sudden the regime flips and there is an
Islamic regime ruling. They could never psychologically accept that.”

When Mr. Mubarak was removed after nearly 30 years in office in 2011, the
bureaucracy he built stayed largely in place. Many business leaders, also a
pillar of the old government, retained their wealth and influence.

Despite coming to power through the freest elections in Egyptian history,
Mr. Morsi was unable to extend his authority over the sprawling state
apparatus, and his allies complained that what they called the “deep state”
was undermining their efforts at governing.

While he failed to broaden his appeal and build any kind of national
consensus, he also faced an active campaign by those hostile to his
leadership, including some of the wealthiest and most powerful pillars of
the Mubarak era.

Mr. Sawiris, one of Egypt’s richest men and a titan of the old
establishment, said Wednesday that he had supported an upstart group called
“tamarrod,” Arabic for “rebellion,” that led a petition drive seeking Mr.
Morsi’s ouster. He donated use of the nationwide offices and infrastructure
of the political party he built, the Free Egyptians. He provided publicity
through his popular television network and his major interest in Egypt’s
largest private newspaper. He even commissioned the production of a popular
music video that played heavily on his network.

“Tamarrod did not even know it was me!” he said. “I am not ashamed of it.”

He said he had publicly predicted that ousting Mr. Morsi would bolster
Egypt’s sputtering economy because it would bring in billions of dollars in
aid from oil-rich monarchies afraid that the Islamist movement might spread
to their shores. By Wednesday, a total of $12 billion had flowed in from
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. “That will take us for
12 months with no problem,” Mr. Sawiris said.

Ms. Gebali, the former judge, said in a telephone interview on Wednesday
that she and other legal experts helped tamarrod create its strategy to
appeal directly to the military to oust Mr. Morsi and pass the interim
presidency to the chief of the constitutional court.

“We saw that there was movement and popular creativity, so we wanted to see
if it would have an effect and a constitutional basis,” Ms. Gebali said.

Mr. Farash, the trade ministry spokesman under Mr. Morsi, attributed the
fuel shortages to black marketers linked to Mr. Mubarak, who diverted
shipments of state-subsidized fuel to sell for a profit abroad. Corrupt
officials torpedoed Mr. Morsi’s introduction of a smart card system to
track fuel shipments by refusing to use the devices, he said.

But not everyone agreed with that interpretation, as supporters of the
interim government said the improvements in recent days were a reflection
of Mr. Morsi’s incompetence, not a conspiracy. State news media said energy
shortages occurred because consumers bought extra fuel out of fear, which
appeared to evaporate after Mr. Morsi’s fall. On Wednesday, Al Ahram, the
flagship newspaper, said the energy grid had had a surplus in the past week
for the first time in months, thanks to “energy-saving measures by the
public.”

“I feel like Egypt is back,” Ayman Abdel-Hakam, a criminal court judge from
a Cairo suburb, said after waiting only a few minutes to fill up his car at
a downtown gas station. He accused Mr. Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood of
trying to seize all state power and accused them of creating the fuel
crisis by exporting gasoline to Hamas, the militant Islamic group in the
Gaza Strip.

“We had a disease, and we got rid of it,” Mr. Abdel-Hakam said.

Ahmed Nabawi, a gas station manager, said he had heard several reasons for
the gas crisis: technical glitches at a storage facility, a shipment of
low-quality gas from abroad and unnecessary stockpiling by the public.
Still, he was amazed at how quickly the crisis disappeared.

“We went to sleep one night, woke up the next day, and the crisis was
gone,” he said, casually sipping tea in his office with his colleagues.

Regardless of the reasons behind the crisis, he said, Mr. Morsi’s rule had
not helped.

“No one wanted to cooperate with his people because they didn’t accept
him,” he said. “Now that he is gone, they are working like they’re supposed
to.”

-- 
Robert Naiman
Policy Director
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org
naiman at justforeignpolicy.org
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