[Peace-discuss] Mark Weisbrot: Krugman Should Be More Skeptical About the New Cold War

Sat Aug 23 15:17:47 EDT 2014

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/international/215723-krugman-should-be-more-skeptical-about-the-new-cold-war

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Mark Weisbrot, CEPR <cepr at cepr.net>
Date: Fri, Aug 22, 2014 at 11:22 AM
Subject: Krugman Should Be More Skeptical About the New Cold War
To: naiman at justforeignpolicy.org

     [image: CEPR logo]
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=p%2BFFkGgc7f%2BYqYQNNgx3hFwNAn3dGqIP>
Krugman Should Be More Skeptical About the New Cold War
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=uVhabM8a%2FJKjSb6khLHseUp9Nmv2HAAX>

By Mark Weisbrot
------------------------------

This article was published by The Hill on August 22, 2014. If anyone wants
to reprint it, please include a link to the original
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=MxzaDQpkUL0AJI%2FHoEtyxlwNAn3dGqIP>
.
------------------------------

Paul Krugman has been an important voice for sanity for many years, and so
there was some disappointment with his Monday column on war
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=I8qZRlM79U6jjNN40fxS7Ep9Nmv2HAAX>,
among those who would like to see less insanity in U.S. foreign
policy.  Krugman
is also one of the few columnists (or economists for that matter) who has,
on several occasions, publicly acknowledged when he has made mistakes, and
corrected them (in good Keynesian tradition, “when confronted with new
evidence …”).  So I write with all sincerity in hoping that he will realize
his mistake in this case.

In explaining the civil war in Ukraine, Krugman assumes that all the blame
belongs to Russia, and in particular its president, Vladimir Putin:

It’s only a guess, but it seems likely that Vladimir Putin thought that he
could overthrow Ukraine’s government, or at least seize a large chunk of
its territory, on the cheap — a bit of deniable aid to the rebels, and it
would fall into his lap.

First, it was the United States that supported the overthrow of Ukraine’s
democratically elected government in February, when Russia was more
amenable to a negotiated solution that would have included early elections.
When the Europeans showed some reticence
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=y2ujgcc1y6wZw5FGTO93%2BUp9Nmv2HAAX>
about pushing the country into civil war, Washington’s neoconservative
Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs, Victoria
Nuland, had a three-word response :  “Fuck the EU
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=xhutvzAYsUp1ka1k8D%2BlsUp9Nmv2HAAX>
.”  The U.S. has spent billions over many years trying to get a government
in Ukraine that would be part of its political-military alliance against
what is now the Russian Federation, and she wasn’t going to let this
opportunity slip away. If Washington had not been so aggressive and
indifferent to the start of a civil war, this one could most likely have
been avoided.

Washington followed up the coup with elections as soon as possible, even if
it meant disenfranchising millions of voters because of the political and
armed conflict (this is standard operating procedure after a coup: see the
June 2009 U.S.-supported coup in Honduras,  followed by “elections” the
following November, that almost no other country
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=pXovR7%2BmvHuKhCVBs6xaVEp9Nmv2HAAX>
in the hemisphere recognized as legitimate).  Since then, the U.S. has
promoted a military solution to the conflict, combined with increasing
economic sanctions against Russia. The military strategy, which includes
the bombing and shelling of rebel-held cities and consequent killing of
hundreds of civilians, could possibly succeed in crushing the rebellion.  But
how is this justifiable, rather than trying to negotiate a political
solution?  Krugman acknowledges that “we have to worry about escalation in
Ukraine.”  But how is that to be avoided without any attempt at a political
solution?  Isn’t it a problem that Washington thinks it can settle this
conflict – like so many others – with violence and threats?

Krugman is objective about the Iraq War, and was the only person to write
in the pages of the *New York Times* that part of the Bush-Cheney strategy
for the build-up to the war was to win the 2002 U.S. congressional
elections.  So it is strange that in this case he sees only the official
story. There is a large body of expert opinion across the political
spectrum that has argued against one side trying to impose its will on the
other in this situation. Even Henry Kissinger warned
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=igU69jrzbTDQxPza%2BxH3k0p9Nmv2HAAX>
in March:  “Any attempt by one wing of Ukraine to dominate the other — as
has been the pattern — would lead eventually to civil war or break up. To
treat Ukraine as part of an East-West confrontation would scuttle for
decades any prospect to bring Russia and the West — especially Russia and
Europe — into a cooperative international system.”

Russia’s annexation of Crimea was against international law, and
indefensible.  But U.S. policy has helped push Russia
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=pXIGWtZP6KIAzND7H%2Bs6%2BUp9Nmv2HAAX>
to the wall, after NATO added 12 Eastern European countries from 1999-2009,
and now threatens to add Ukraine.  It goes without saying that Washington
would never tolerate anything remotely similar in the Western Hemisphere.

There is another way in which Washington exacerbates
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=xOTeg9uiarskSkJPkmJ4Vkp9Nmv2HAAX>
this particular conflict that Krugman should be familiar with.  The
U.S./E.U. alliance has an IMF economic plan
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=3WIslqobC35HhQuZg7Jk00p9Nmv2HAAX>
for Ukraine that promises further economic hardship, with the economy
already in a deep recession and a projected decline
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=LezxJcYFynUbXk3BBoWSMUp9Nmv2HAAX>
in GDP of 6-7 percent this year.  IMF austerity calls for a budget
tightening of 3 percent of GDP over the next two years, among other
measures (some that are necessary at some point, like cutting energy
subsidies) that will shrink the economy.  German finance minister Wolfgang
Schäuble referred to Greece as a “model” for Ukraine, and it could
ironically turn out to be that way.  The eastern part of the country,
already racked by the war, is likely to be hardest hit by the economic
policy changes.  This will not make a political solution any easier, should
Washington and its allies ever decide that they are interested in one.

In this column, Krugman warns of the risks that authoritarian governments
like China might resort to war in the future if their economies worsen.  But
while China has no foreign military bases, the United States is an empire,
currently involved in a number of conflicts, with hundreds of military
bases across the globe.

Krugman’s column, entitled “Why We Fight Wars,” therefore misses the main
reason that U.S. leaders send their troops to war: to preserve and expand
their own global power.  In his book, “The Conscience of a Liberal
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=RcI%2FUMNVomV56d%2BvAaYC3Ep9Nmv2HAAX>,”
Krugman explains how the right has played on fears of foreign enemies (real
and imagined) in order to gain political power in the U.S.  But it is not
just the right that has dragged us into unnecessary wars, and many liberals
have also played the role of enablers by accepting the right’s false
premises and stories.

But that is an issue for a longer discussion.  The point here is that
Krugman should reconsider his view of the “New Cold War,” as Russia scholar
Stephen F. Cohen has called it
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=F%2BeGbil9a5MvC9l6vP1oU0p9Nmv2HAAX>,
for the same reasons that he vehemently opposed the Iraq War:  this venture
is reckless, based on false pretexts, and immoral.

Mark Weisbrot
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=d7X1YFAdHk6v5QLQeXjGqkp9Nmv2HAAX>
is co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, in
Washington, D.C. He is also president of Just Foreign Policy
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=5GIjMhM%2F9zzddVX7Rhe6OUp9Nmv2HAAX>.

More from CEPR
Reports
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=r1y627lTn50r6UUfdDZkFkp9Nmv2HAAX>
Op-eds & Columns
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=Up3B2xtiEPcHybWO%2Bn13t0p9Nmv2HAAX>
Data Bytes
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=ZU7PcJEf7NP5oi1oWMYdS0p9Nmv2HAAX>
Beat the Press
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=npFJv1ipSIQ3TQsXLox7%2FEp9Nmv2HAAX>
CEPR Blog
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=FukOFcWg9BMeQQt3WQk%2Fkkp9Nmv2HAAX>
The Americas Blog
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=CXGywUxL8dtshypitlOHzEp9Nmv2HAAX>
Haiti Relief and Reconstruction Watch
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=WVy60Bc187BXhwSrHyVN3Up9Nmv2HAAX>
Events
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=vIv%2Fl1ICKC%2Bhj0A%2FNIORlUp9Nmv2HAAX>

Donate
Please consider making a donation
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=II4z4bZg79sAyeaZhITwAEp9Nmv2HAAX>
to CEPR. In addition to foundations, we rely on people like you to support
our work.

Federal employees can support CEPR through the Combined Federal Campaign,
CFC #79613.

[image: CFC Badge]

About
The Center for Economic and Policy Research is an independent, nonpartisan
think tank that was established to promote democratic debate on the most
important economic and social issues that affect people's lives. CEPR's
Advisory Board includes Nobel Laureate economists Robert Solow and Joseph
Stiglitz; Janet Gornick, Professor at the CUNY Graduate Center and Director
of the Luxembourg Income Study; and Richard Freeman, Professor of Economics
at Harvard University.

<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=LezxJcYFynXwaxbyfwQhKEp9Nmv2HAAX>

<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=gCGh5n8DCZoIoFc73xuS7lwNAn3dGqIP>

[image: CEPR RSS Feed]
<http://org.salsalabs.com/dia/track.jsp?v=2&c=lOjop%2BCXiK4LNyxHjxZr%2FUp9Nmv2HAAX>

Center for Economic and Policy Research, 1611 Connecticut Ave, NW, Suite
400, Washington, DC 20009
Phone: (202) 293-5380, Fax: (202) 588-1356
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.chambana.net/pipermail/peace-discuss/attachments/20140823/bd8e92b5/attachment-0001.html>