[Peace-discuss] [OccupyCU] Calculate odds of 2 Malaysian Air Boeing 777s crashing within 4 months ... Israel???

Mon Jul 28 11:06:04 EDT 2014

I actually don't think this has much to do with anything but a fundamental misunderstanding of how probability works in the real world.  Consider this: What are the odds against any particular airliner crashing, just with an analysis like this?  Astronomical.  Yet it happens and frequently.

Think about it this way.  The odds would appear to be strongly against flipping a coin a hundred times and winning against an opponent every time.  None of us will likely ever see it.  Yet we with enough people flipping coins it not only can but will happen.  Imagine a tournament in which people pair off like in the World Cup, and they each flip a coin.  One flips, the other calls it in the air.  Let's start with the final, say, 128 contestants.  Exactly 64 must win.  Then they pair off and 64 win.  They pair off and 16 win.  They pair off and 8 win.  They pair off and 4 win, then 2, and finally one.  The winner has just won 6 coin tosses in a row.  Back all the way up to the beginning of the tournament, and you can see that  if there were enough people involved at the start (I think it's something like 6.3 x 10 to the 29th), you will end up with a person who wins 100 coin tosses in a row.

The further point, I would argue, is that not only is it possible, and I just described a scenario in which it will happen and cannot even be avoided -- but nobody chose the winner, nor could anyone predict the winner.

Besides, given the corporate model, it is quite likely that if there is a connection between these two planes, it is much more mundane.  Some airlines don't like to fly over war zones, for example, while others may be less cautious, perhaps in general on a number of fronts.  Some have maintenance programs better than others, etc.  We don't actually have much info on what happened to the first one, remember.

Ricky

________________________________
From: OccupyCU [occupycu-bounces at lists.chambana.net] on behalf of Stephen Francis via OccupyCU [occupycu at lists.chambana.net]
Sent: Sunday, July 27, 2014 5:28 AM
To: Peace-discuss List; Occupycu
Subject: [OccupyCU] Calculate odds of 2 Malaysian Air Boeing 777s crashing within 4 months ... Israel???

I'm looking forward to all the tinfoil comments I'll receive from this, but the math doesn't lie.

In the U.S. the odds are 1 in 270,417  (9,748,551 commercial flights/36.5 US commercial crashes) of being killed in a commercial plane crash.  avg. # commercial flights @yr / avg # crashes @ yr. = odds of a specific flight crashing
also see: http://www.planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm<http://www.planecrashinfo.com/cause.htm>
and globally it's very safe to fly:  In 1998, the world’s commercial jet airlines carried approximately 1.3 billion people on 18 million flights while suffering 10 fatal accidents.  (18,000,000/10).... one in 180,000,000
So....
To calculate odds of one of us being killed in a Boeing 777 plane and belonging to Malaysian Airlines would be 180,000,000 x # different commercial aircraft x # of commercial airline companies.  Let's say 200 kinds of planes to just make a wild guess and 200 commercial airline companies  So now the odds of crashing in a 777s are 180,000,000 x 200 x 200....it's in the one in trillions range (7.2 E+12).... a calculator can't display it without scientific notation.

Or the odds of two Boeing 777s belonging to Malaysian Airlines crashing would be one in 18 million x 200 x 200 = (1:7.2 E+11)....astronomically unlikely....not even considering the crashes happening within 4 months of each other....???
I'm dangerous at mathematics and these numbers could be substantially wrong , but are not unreasonable.... and this is getting way over my head....but has something to do with:
 (n2)p2(1−p)n−2  or 1−p0(1−p)n−0−np1(1−p)n−1

In other words the plane crashes are related somehow beyond the possibility of pure chance!
Jim Fetzer is on to something?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17

[Photograph of the missing aircraft taking off at Roissy-Charles de Gaulle Airport (LFPG) in France, 2011]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysian_Airlines_MH370
[http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/80/Boeing_777-2H6ER_9M-MRD_Malaysian_%286658105143%29.jpg/255px-Boeing_777-2H6ER_9M-MRD_Malaysian_%286658105143%29.jpg]
and there is an interesting buzz (Daily Paul) about an identical plane being stored in Israel.....Just sayin'

Why is a Malaysian Airliner Identical to the Missing One Being Stored in Tel Aviv? | Peace . Gold . LOVE<http://www.dailypaul.com/315435/why-is-a-malaysian-airliner-identical-to-the-missing-one-being-stored-in-tel-aviv>

[image]<http://www.dailypaul.com/315435/why-is-a-malaysian-airliner-identical-to-the-missing-one-being-stored-in-tel-aviv>

Why is a Malaysian Airliner Identical to the Missing One...<http://www.dailypaul.com/315435/why-is-a-malaysian-airliner-identical-to-the-missing-one-being-stored-in-tel-aviv>
What are the odds? Why would Israel have a plane identical to the missing Malaysia Airlines plane in storage in Tel Aviv?

View on www.dailypaul.com<http://www.dailypaul.com/315435/why-is-a-malaysian-airliner-identical-to-the-missing-one-being-stored-in-tel-aviv>

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On Saturday, July 26, 2014 8:21 PM, ewjohnson via Peace-discuss <peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net> wrote:

wikipaedia saith regarding Godfrey's demise:

On 21 December, Miles Prance, Catholic servant-in-ordinary to England's Catholic Queen consort, Catherine of Braganza, was arrested and taken to Newgate prison. His lodger (who was in debt to Prance), John Wren, testified that he had been away for the four nights before Godfrey's body was discovered. Bedloe claimed to recognize him. Both statements are now thought to be lies, but this did not help Prance.

On 23 – 24 December, Prance announced that he had had a part in the murder but that the main instigators were three Catholic priests: Thomas Godden, head of the secular English clergy, and two Irish priests, Kelly and Fitzgerald. These priests witnessed the murder in the courtyard of Somerset House where Godfrey had been lured. Godfrey had been strangled and his body taken to Hampstead. Prance named as the actual killers three working men, Robert Green, Henry Berry and Lawrence Hill, who were arrested. Godden fled the country, while the two Irish priests simply vanished. As with most solutions to the murder, the main weakness was the absence of a plausible motive. Prance could only say, vaguely, that Godfrey had been harassing the priests in some way, which seems unlikely as he was noted for tolerance in religious matters.

Prance later recanted his confession before the king and the council and was thrown back to prison: he was threatened with torture, and nearly froze to death.   As a result he recanted his recantation and recanted two more times, ending up verifying his original story. At the trial he was a highly credible witness, although Hill's wife rightly prophesied "we shall see him recant after, when it is too late". [10]The three men were sentenced to death 5 February 1679 and hanged at Primrose Hill. For a time this was known as "Greenberry Hill", because of the hangings of Green, Berry and Hill.

Prance's story was later discredited and he pleaded guilty to perjury. Because the three men were executed on false evidence, and historians accept their complete innocence, the murder remains officially unsolved.

....

There have been many theories of what really happened to Godfrey and who killed him. He might have been murdered either by Catholics, who could have been afraid that he knew some of their real secrets; supporters of Oates because of his contacts to Catholics or because he knew Oates was lying; or just by random hooligans. Some claim suicide, either because Godfrey was in a quandary between Catholics and Anglicans and, due to his contacts to Coleman, possibly under suspicion or just because of his melancholy nature.

[There is no mention whatsoever of Jewry, so I find the whole
matter to be highly suspicious. - ewj]

On 07/27/2014 10:56 AM, ewjohnson via Peace-discuss wrote:
I think this should help clear things up:

"In the New York Herald, Nov. 26, 1911, there is an account of the hanging of three men, for the murder of Sir Edmund Berry Godfrey, on Greenberry Hill, London.   The names of the murderers were Green, Berry, and Hill."  - Charles Hoy Fort, "Wild Talents", 1932.

In correspondence to H. Allen Smith in 1932, H. L. Mencken denounced Charles Fort as a quack.  (quoted in H. A. Smith, "Low Man on a Totem Pole", 1941).

Accounts of Fort and the Fortean Society generally quote HL Mencken as a follower of Fort, a thing which Mencken vehemently denies in his correspondence to Smith (see above), who had included Mencken's name among other Forteans in an 1932 obituary of CH Fort.

PS:  C.H. Fort did not invent FORTRAN.

On 07/27/2014 06:59 AM, David Gehrig via Peace-discuss wrote:
On Jul 26, 2014, at 5:45 PM, Stephen Francis via Peace-discuss <peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net<mailto:peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net>> wrote:

David,
I can't help just being a product of my research....

When you're "researching" in a sewer, it's no surprise that everything you fish out is a pile of crap.

For the heck of it, I wandered over to "Veterans Today," the toilet you mistake for a feeding trough. Foilhatted Fetzer has figured out who knocked down MH17: Israel, of course! "In case anyone misses the point, the plane that went down in Ukraine appears to be the same plane that disappeared in Southeast Asia, Malaysian 370. The passengers appear to have been killed, perhaps en route to Diego Garcia, and the plane taken to Ukraine as part of an Israeli plan to distract attention from its slaughter in Gaza."

Lunatic. Just a freakin' ravin' lunatic. But you'll follow him anywhere, even into Holocaust denial. Why? Because "Veterans Today" has eaten your brain.

Every piece of history can be connected to it precisely because

Precisely because you're insane.

@%<

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