[Peace-discuss] why (else) a war on Gaza? How about exploitation of its natural gas? was: [ufpj-activist] Resource ECOLOGIST:armed robbery in gaza Greta's book has background
Stuart Levy via Peace-discuss
peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net
Wed Jul 30 13:20:31 EDT 2014
Via United for Peace and Justice.
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: [ufpj-activist] Resource ECOLOGIST:armed robbery in gaza
Greta's book has background
Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2014 18:24:14 -0500
From: Lisa Fithian <fithianl at igc.org>
To: <ufpj-activist at lists.mayfirst.org>
*From:*wesailforjustice at googlegroups.com
[mailto:wesailforjustice at googlegroups.com] *On Behalf Of *kathy sheetz
*Sent:* Monday, July 28, 2014 1:18 PM
*To:* palestine solidarity network; we sail for justice
*Subject:* [wesailforjustice] ECOLOGIST:armed robbery in gaza Greta's
book has background
http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2489992/armed_robbery_in_gaza_israel_us_uk_carve_up_the_spoils_of_palestines_stolen_gas.html
Armed robbery in Gaza - Israel, US, UK carve up the spoils of
Palestine's stolen gas
Nafeez Ahmed
24th July 2014
Israel desperately covets Gaza's gas as a 'cheap stop-gap' yielding
revenues of $6-7 billion a year, writes Nafeez Ahmed. The UK's BG
and the US's Noble Energy are lined up to do the dirty work - but
first Hamas must be 'uprooted' from Gaza, and Fatah bullied into
cutting off its talks with Russia's Gazprom.
*It is clear that without an overall military operation to uproot
Hamas control of Gaza, no drilling work can take place without the
consent of the radical Islamic movement.*
/"Israel's current offensive in the Gaza Strip is by no means an energy
war"/, writes Allison Good in The National Interest
<http://nationalinterest.org/feature/war-over-energy-gaza-10923>in a
response to my/Ecologist / Guardian/article
<http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2482929/gaza_israels_4_billion_gas_grab.html> exposing
the role of natural gas in Israel's invasion of Gaza.
This /"has not stopped conspiracy theorists from alleging that the IDF's
Operation Protective Edge aims to assert control over Palestinians gas
and avert an Israeli energy crisis."/
Describing me as a /"self-proclaimed"/international security journalist
engaging in/"shoddy logic, evidence and language",/ Good - who works as
a contractor for Noble Energy, the Texas-based oil major producing gas
from Israel's reserves in the Mediterranean Sea - claims that:
/"Israel is nowhere close to experiencing an energy crisis and has no
urgent or near-future need for the natural gas located offshore Gaza.
While Israel gains nothing for its energy industry by hitting Gaza, it
stands to lose significantly more."/
*If you don't like the evidence - ignore it*
Yet Good's missive is full of oversimplifications and distortions. She
points out that Israel's recently discovered Tamar and Leviathan fields
together hold an estimated 30 trillion cubic feet of gas - which, she
claims /"are expected to meet Israel's domestic energy needs for at
least the next twenty-five years"/ while simultaneously sustaining major
exports.
/"Israel is not using Operation Protective Edge to steal the Gaza Marine
gas field from the Palestinians, and it is irresponsible to claim
otherwise"/, she asserts. Yet her blanket dismissal simply ignores the
evidence.
In early 2011, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu proposed new
negotiations with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas
Abu-Mazen over development of the Gaza Marine reservoir.
/"The proposal was made in view of Israel's natural gas shortage
following the cessation of gas deliveries from Egypt"/, reported the
Israeli business daily Globes
<http://www.globes.co.il/en/article-1000829662>.
*US-based Noble's Gaza gas grab*
But since 2012, Israel began unilaterally developing
<http://mondediplo.com/blogs/israel-s-war-for-gaza-s-gas> the Noa South
gas reserve in the Mediterranean off the coast of Gaza, estimated to
contain about 1.2 billion cubic metres.
According to Globes
<http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2489992/armed_robbery_in_gaza_israel_us_uk_carve_up_the_spoils_of_palestines_stolen_gas.html#38;fid=1725>,
Israel had previously /"refrained from ordering development of the Noa
field, fearing that this would lead to diplomatic problems vis-à-vis the
Palestinian Authority"/ as the field is /"partly under the jurisdiction
of the Palestinian Authority in the economic zone of the Gaza Strip."/
Allison Good's employer, Noble Energy, /"convinced"/ Israel's Ministry
of National Infrastructures that the company's drilling would /"not
spill over into other parts of the reserve."/
/"Israel wanted to cooperate with the Palestinian Authority to develop
Israel's Noa South reservoir, which spreads into Gaza's maritime area"/,
reported Globes <http://www.globes.co.il/en/article-1000829662>. /"In
the end, Israel decided to develop the Noa reservoir without any
official agreement."/
*Israel's secret gas talks*
Despite repeated breakdowns in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations to
exploit the Gaza Marine gas reserves, Israel's interest only accelerated.
In May last year, Israeli officials were in /"secret talks
<http://www.globes.co.il/en/article-1000829662>"/ for months with the
British Gas Group (BG Group), which owns the license over Gaza's
offshore resources, over development of the reserves.
According to the US Energy Information Administration
<http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=pt> (EIA), the Gaza
Marine holds about 1.6 trillion cubic feet in recoverable gas, and
/"offshore Gaza territory may hold additional energy resources."/
Determining the size of these additional resources requires further
exploration which, however, is limited by /"uncertainty around maritime
delineation between Israel, Gaza, and Egypt."/
Senior Israeli sources said that the Gaza gas issue was expected to come
up in US President Barack Obama's talks with Israeli leaders during his
visit to Israel at the time.
*The Palestinians - who own the gas - were excluded*
The talks also included Netanyahu's personal envoy Yitzak Molcho and
former British Prime Minister Tony Blair in his capacity as Quartet (US,
UK, EU, Russia) special envoy to the Middle East.
Palestinian leaders, though, were excluded from these talks due to
/"political sensitivities and the complex relationship between the
Palestinian Authority and Hamas."/
By October that year, the Financial Times
<http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2489992/armed_robbery_in_gaza_israel_us_uk_carve_up_the_spoils_of_palestines_stolen_gas.html#axzz38BhYGgGb> reported
that Netanyahu remained /"very supportive"/ of the Gaza Marine gas
project /"which would see the fields exploited on behalf of the
Palestinian Authority by investors led by BG Group."/
If all went ahead, the fields could be producing gas by 2017, generating
/"$6bn to $7bn of revenues a year." /An /"energy industry source"/ cited
by FT told the newspaper that:
/"Israel may now see Gaza Marine as providing a useful alternative
source of gas, especially at a time when its pipeline imports from Egypt
have been disrupted due to unrest in the Sinai peninsula./
/"Mr Netanyahu's government faces criticism and a court challenge from
opposition politicians over its plans to export up to 40 per cent of
natural gas produced from its own, much larger Mediterranean gas reserves./
/"Israel, the industry source said, may feel that gas from Gaza would
allow it to reduce its reliance on the consortium led by Noble and Delek
Energy now developing Israel's Tamar and Leviathan offshore gasfields."/
*Quashing the gas deal*
But as Good herself noted in the same month in Dubai's The National
<http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/gazas-energy-riches-stay-untapped-amid-political-stalemate>,
there remained one problem:
/"Hamas retains de facto jurisdiction over the Gaza Strip and,
consequently, over Gaza Marine. The PA cannot negotiate on behalf of
Hamas, and any agreement that Israel could make with Ramallah would
certainly be declared null and void in Gaza. Israel also still refuses
to negotiate with Hamas."/
And despite negotiations to exploit Gaza's gas speeding ahead between
Israeli government and BG Group officials, Netanyahu /"quashed"/ a $4
billion economic stimulus initiative proposed by US Secretary of State
John Kerry which /"included a proposal for the exploitation of Gaza
Marine."/
Why was Netanyahu simultaneously pushing forward negotiations over
Gaza's gas, while also blocking and excluding any deal that would grant
any Palestinian entity inclusion in the deal?
*Israel's gas reserves inflated, consumption understated*
As noted in my article
<http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2482929/gaza_israels_4_billion_gas_grab.html>,
and ignored by Noble Energy contractor Allison Good, the drive to access
Gaza's gas was likely magnified in the context of a report by Israeli
government chief scientists Sinai Netanyahu and Shlomo Wald of the
Energy and Water Resources Ministry.
That report was submitted to the Tzemach committee tasked with drafting
a national gas policy, but was covered up until /Ha'aretz/ obtained a
leaked copy
<http://www.haaretz.com/business/israel-s-gas-reserves-insufficient-for-exports-1.451838>.
The Tzemach committee recommended the government to export 53% of its
gas - reduced to 40% this June - amidst widespread allegations of
/"improper conduct"/ anddeliberate inflation of reserve figures
<http://www.haaretz.com/business/.premium-1.528070>.
Indeed, according to the report of the Israeli chief scientists, the
government's gas policy is based on underestimating future Israeli
demand and overestimating the country's gas production potential.
In reality, the scientists said, Israel will need /"50% more natural gas
<http://www.haaretz.com/business/israel-s-gas-reserves-insufficient-for-exports-1.451838> than
has been forecast until now and its offshore reserves will be empty in
less than 40 years."/
*Israel's looming gas crunch*
The most optimistic estimate received by the Tzemach committee was that
Israel would need 364 billion cubic meters of gas. In contrast, the
chief scientists argued that by 2040, Israel would need 650 billion
cubic meters, after which the country would consume 40 billion cubic
meters of gas per year.
At this rate, /"even if Israel chooses not to export any gas, it will
entirely exhaust its offshore reserves"/ by 2055. This assessment,
further, ignores that /"not all the gas is likely to be commercially
extractable."/
The upshot is that Israel cannot simultaneously export gas and retain
sufficient quantities to meet its domestic needs.
And if Israel exhausts its gas resources /"it will be forced to return
to oil to meet its energy needs, even though global oil production is
expected to start declining by 2035."/The scientists noted that /"if oil
output drops by even 15%, its price is likely to spike by 550%."/
These concerns are compounded by the consistent under-performance of
several of Israel's recent gas discoveries compared to the hype, such as
in the Sara, Myra, Ishai, and Elijah-3 reserves.
*As Israel faces a 2015 gas shortage, Gaza's gas is a cheap stop-gap*
Sohbet Karbuz, head of hydrocarbons at Observatoire Méditerranéen de
l'Energie (OME) in Paris, points out that much of the gas was not in
hindsight commercially recoverable
<http://www.ensec.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=445:the-under-belly-of-eastern-mediterranean-gas&catid=137:issue-content&Itemid=422>.
As he writes in the /Journal of Energy Security,/
/"There is no certainty that it will be commercially possible to produce
any percentage of contingent resources."/
Israel's gas export policy, he thus remarks with reference to the
much-vaunted Tamar and Leviathan fields, is based /"partly on a mixture
of hype and hope on the one hand, and reserves and prospective resources
on the other."/
Drilling in Israel's Leviathan reserves which was supposed to begin in
December 2013 has been postponed to later this year due to high gas
pressures at lower depths. In the meantime,//reports /Jewish Business
News/
<http://jewishbusinessnews.com/2013/11/18/leviathan-oil-well-drilling-postponed/>,
/"Postponing Leviathan's development could have major repercussions on
Israel's economy, which will face a natural gas shortage from 2015."/
Israel needs the Gaza Marine as a stop-gap, but wants it cheap, and is
unwilling to exploit the reserves through any Palestinian entity.
*UK Foreign Office - 'Israel won't pay the full whack'*
Official British Foreign Office (FCO) documents obtained under the
Freedom of Information Act by the Palestinian think-tank Al-Shabaka
based in Washington DC shine new light on this.
According to email correspondence between the FCO's Near East Group and
the British Consulate General in Jerusalem in November 2009, Israel had
refused to pay market price for Gaza's gas. One Foreign Office official
said:
/"Israel won't (i) pay the full whack [for the gas] (ii) guarantee to
give a certain cut direct to the PA. So BG aren't getting the gas out of
the sea-bed. They are content to exploit other reserves and come back to
this one when the price is right."/
Another email dated 29^th June 2010 noted that despite large reserves
of gas discovered between Israel and Cyprus giving Israel the
opportunity to become a net gas exporter, Israeli officials saw
potential for the Gaza Marine to function as /"a stop-gap measure before
the new finds come fully on stream."/
On 8th February 2011, UK ambassador to Israel Matthew Gould wrote to the
FCO explaining that Israel intended to therefore seek the development of
Gaza's gas reserves as this would
/"enhance Palestinian opportunities; reduce Gaza's dependence on Israel;
and diversify Israel's sources of gas. [redacted] added that this last
point had been given added topicality by the attack this weekend on the
gas pipeline from Egypt."/
*British Gas and Israel collude to exclude Hamas*
The biggest obstacle as far as Israel is concerned is Hamas, the
Palestinian Authority (PA), and the prospect of a strong independent
Palestinian state.
An April 2014 policy paper for the European Parliament's
directorate-general of external policies points out that
/"distrust"/ between all these parties, particularly /"political
divisions on the Palestine side"/ have /"hindered the negotiations."/
After Hamas was elected to power in the Gaza Strip in 2006, the group
declared from the outset that Israel's agreements with the PA were
illegitimate, and that Hamas was the rightful owner of the Gaza Marine
resources.
But BG Group and Israeli officials had come up with a strategy to bypass
Hamas. A BG official told the /Jerusalem Post/
<http://www.jpost.com/Magazine/Features/Still-waters> in August 2007 that
/"BG and Israel have arrived at an 'understanding' that will transfer
funds intended for the PA's Palestinian Investment Fund into an
international bank account, where they will be held until the PA can
retake control of the Gaza Strip."/
Under this plan, /"Both Israel and BG intend that until the PA is able
to remove Hamas from power in the Gaza Strip, the money will be held in
an international bank account. Neither side wants the money to go to
fund terror-related activities."/
*Hamas must be uprooted from Gaza*
The plan was, according to an Infrastructures Ministry official cited by
the /Jerusalem Post/, about /"circumventing the possibility that Israeli
money will end up in the wrong hands"/by arranging /"a payment
plan"/ that would /"completely exclude Hamas"./
In the same year, incumbent Israeli defence minister Moshe Ya'alon -
then former IDF chief of staff - explicitly advocated
<http://jcpa.org/article/does-the-prospective-purchase-of-british-gas-from-gaza-threaten-israel%E2%80%99s-national-security/> that
the only way in which Gaza's gas could be developed was through an
Israeli military incursion to eliminate Hamas.
Ya'alon's concern was that /"Palestinian gas profits would likely end up
funding terrorism against Israel"/, a threat which /"is not limited to
Hamas"/ and includes the Fatah-run PA. As preventing gas proceeds from
/"reaching Palestinian terror groups"/ is /"impossible"/, Ya'alon concluded:
/"It is clear that without an overall military operation to uproot Hamas
control of Gaza, no drilling work can take place without the consent of
the radical Islamic movement."/
Ya'alon's concerns voiced in 2007 - and the prospect of using military
force to begin gas production in Gaza - remain relevant today. As the
man in charge of Israel's current war on Gaza, Ya'alon is now in a
position to execute the vision he had outlined a year before Operation
Cast Lead.
*Extending Israeli sovereignty over Gaza*
Thus, the exclusion of Palestinian representatives - whether Fatah or
Hamas - from the latest negotiations between Israel and BG Gas is no
accident.
While PA president Mahmoud Abbas was independently seeking to reach a
deal with Russia's Gazprom to develop the Gaza Marine, Netanyahu
<http://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-finally-speaks-his-mind/> had
already /"made explicitly clear that he could never, ever, countenance a
fully sovereign Palestinian state"/ - which is why he deliberately
torpedoed
<http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2014/07/21/Netanyahu-s-goal-is-to-end-Palestinian-sovereignty.html> the
peace process, according to US officials.
The other factor in this equation is the legal challenge to the Gaza gas
proposals fromYam Thetis
<http://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/OEF-93.pdf>,
a consortium of three Israeli firms and Samedan Oil.
Samedan is a subsidiary of the same US oil company, Noble Energy, that
employs National Interest contributor Allison Good, and which has been
operating in the Noa South field that overlaps Gaza.
Yam Thetis' principal argument was that /"BG had no right to drill in
Palestinian waters as the Palestinian Authority is not a state and
cannot grant such a right to drill in offshore Gaza."/
The upshot is that Noble Energy's consortium should have the right to
extend its drilling into the Gaza Marine on behalf of Israel - and at
the expense of the Palestinians.
*Removing the obstacles - Hamas and the PA*
Since the Oslo Accords, although the PA's maritime jurisdiction extends
up to 20 nautical miles from the coast, Israel has incrementally reduced
Gaza's maritime jurisdiction by 85%
<http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/briefing_note/join/2014/522339/EXPO-AFET_SP%282014%29522339_EN.pdf>from
20 to 3 nautical miles - effectively reversing Palestinian sovereignty
over the Gaza Marine.
But with Israel's determination to access Gaza's gas accelerating in the
context of the risk of a 2015 energy crunch, the fundamental obstacle to
doing so remained not just the intransigent Hamas, but an insufficiently
pliant PA seeking to engage the west's arch-geopolitical rival, Russia.
Israel's own commitment to blocking a two-state solution and bypassing
Hamas meant that its only option to bring Gaza's gas into production was
to do so directly - with, it seems, the competing collusion of American
and British energy companies.
The IDF's Gaza operation, launched fraudulently
<http://ceasefiremagazine.co.uk/israels-attack-gaza-culmination-66-years-settler-colonialism/> in
the name of self-defence, is certainly though not exclusively about
permanently altering the facts on the ground in Gaza to head-off the
PA's ambitions for autonomously developing the Marine gas reserves, and
to eliminate Hamas' declared sovereignty over them.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
*Also by Nafeez Ahmed:* 'Gaza: Israel's $4 billion gas grab
<http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2482929/gaza_israels_4_billion_gas_grab.html>'.
*/Dr. Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed/*/ is Executive Director of the Institute
for Policy Research & Development <http://www.iprd.org.uk/> in London.
He has advised the British Foreign Office, Royal Military Academy
Sandhurst, and US State Department, and his work was officially used by
the 9/11 Commission. He writes for The Ecologist and The Guardian
<http://www.theguardian.com/profile/nafeez-ahmed> on the geopolitics of
interconnected environmental, energy and economic crises./
/His latest nonfiction book is A User's Guide to the Crisis of
Civilization: And How to Save it
<http://mondediplo.com/%7Bhttp:/www.crisisofcivilization.com> (2010),
and his forthcoming novel, Zero Point <http://zro.pt/>, is out this August./
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