[Peace-discuss] The missing story of the 2014 election

Wed Nov 19 13:59:22 EST 2014

This is actually ( believe it or not ) a good and accurate article about the
2014 Mid-Term election, from a republican no less.

This article is a lot more accurate ( ie. Based on reality ) than a similar
article from a democrat in the recent issue of " In These Times ", titled "
This Won't Hurt a Bit " by David Moberg. Moberg is in total denial both in
his inaccurate and superficial data as well as his analysis.

In both articles, the fact that the democrats did so poorly was not
discussed in depth. That is, the phenomena of the democratic party becoming
more like the republicans by abandoning their Working class base of
traditional supporters in favor of corporate special interests / the
neo-liberal agenda. 

 The missing story of the 2014 election

Posted on November 10, 2014 | By chrisladd
<http://blog.chron.com/goplifer/author/chrisladd/>  

*	 

Election Day 2014 in Texas

Image 1 out of 59

Marie D. De Jesus / Houston Chronicle

Kameron Searle, left, and his daughter, Kayla, 16, celebrate the
Republicans' victories in Houston.

Few things are as dangerous to a long term strategy as a short-term victory.
Republicans this week scored the kind of win that sets one up for
spectacular, catastrophic failure and no one is talking about it.

What emerges from the numbers is the continuation of a trend that has been
in place for almost two decades. Once again, Republicans are disappearing
from the competitive landscape at the national level across the most heavily
populated sections of the country
<http://blog.chron.com/goplifer/2013/04/republicans-should-not-surrender-the
-cities/>  while intensifying their hold on a declining electoral bloc of
aging, white, rural voters. The 2014 election not only continued that doomed
pattern, it doubled down on it. As a result, it became apparent from the
numbers last week that no Republican candidate has a credible shot at the
White House in 2016, and the chance of the GOP holding the Senate for longer
than two years is precisely zero.

For Republicans looking for ways that the party can once again take the lead
in building a nationally relevant governing agenda, the 2014 election is a
prelude to a disaster. Understanding this trend begins with a stark graphic.

Behold the Blue Wall:

 <http://blog.chron.com/goplifer/files/2014/11/Untitled.jpg> Description:
http://www.270towin.com/

http://www.270towin.com/

The Blue Wall is block of states that no Republican Presidential candidate
can realistically hope to win. Tuesday that block finally extended to New
Hampshire, meaning that at the outset of any Presidential campaign, a
minimally effective Democratic candidate can expect to win 257 electoral
votes without even trying. That's 257 out of the 270 needed to win.

Arguably Virginia now sits behind that wall as well. Democrats won the
Senate seat there without campaigning in a year when hardly anyone but
Republicans showed up to vote and the GOP enjoyed its largest wave in modern
history. Virginia would take that tally to 270. Again, that's 270 out of
270.

This means that the next Presidential election, and all subsequent ones
until a future party realignment, will be decided in the Democratic primary.
Only by sweeping all nine of the states that remain in contention AND also
flipping one impossibly Democratic state can a Republican candidate win the
White House. What are the odds that a Republican candidate capable of
passing muster with 2016 GOP primary voters can accomplish that feat? You do
the math.

By contrast, Republicans control a far more modest Red Fortress, which
currently amounts to 149  electoral votes. What happened to that fortress
amid the glory of the 2014 "victory?" It shrunk yet again. Not only are New
Hampshire and probably Virginia now off the competitive map, Georgia is now
clearly in play at the Federal level. This trend did not start in 2014 and
it will not end here. This is a long-term realignment that been in motion
for more than a decade and continues to accelerate.

The biggest Republican victory in decades did not move the map. The
Republican party's geographic and demographic isolation from the rest of
American actually got worse.

A few other items of interest from the 2014 election results:

- Republican Senate candidates lost every single race behind the Blue Wall.
Every one.

- Behind the Blue Wall there were some new Republican Governors, but their
success was very specific and did not translate down the ballot. None of
these candidates ran on social issues, Obama, or opposition the ACA. Rauner
stands out as a particular bright spot in Illinois, but Democrats in
Illinois retained their supermajority in the State Assembly, similar to
other northern states, without losing a single seat.

- Republicans in 2014 were the most popular girl at a party no one attended.
Voter turnout was awful.

- Democrats have consolidated their power behind the sections of the country
that generate the overwhelming bulk of America's wealth outside the energy
industry. That's only ironic if you buy into far-right propaganda, but it's
interesting none the less.

- Vote suppression is working remarkably well, but that won't last.
Eventually Democrats will help people get the documentation they need to
meet the ridiculous and confusing new requirements. The whole "voter
integrity" sham may have given Republicans a one or maybe two-election boost
in low-turnout races. Meanwhile we kissed off minority votes for the
foreseeable future.

- Across the country, every major Democratic ballot initiative was
successful, including every minimum wage increase, even in the red states.

- Every personhood amendment failed.

- For only the second time in fifty years Nebraska is sending a Democrat to
Congress. Former Republican, Brad Ashford, defeated one of the GOP's most
stubborn climate deniers to take the seat.

- Almost half of the Republican Congressional delegation now comes from the
former Confederacy. Total coincidence, just pointing that out.

- In Congress, there are no more white Democrats from the South. The long
flight of the Dixiecrats has concluded.

- Democrats in 2014 were up against a particularly tough climate because
they had to defend 13 Senate seats in red or purple states. In 2016
Republicans will be defending 24 Senate seats and at least 18 of them are
likely to be competitive
<http://goplifer.com/2014/06/02/why-the-gop-needs-a-big-win-in-2014/>  based
on geography and demographics. Democrats will be defending precisely one
seat that could possibly be competitive. One.

- And that "Republican wave?" In Congressional elections this year it
amounted to a total of 52% of the vote. That's it.

- Republican support grew deeper in 2014, not broader. For example, new
Texas Governor Greg Abbott won a whopping victory in the Republic of
Baptistan. That's great, but that's a race no one ever thought would be
competitive and hardly anyone showed up to vote in. Texas not only had the
lowest voter turnout in the country (less than 30%), a position it has
consistently held across decades, but that electorate is more militantly out
of step with every national trend then any other major Republican bloc.
Texas now holds a tenth of the GOP majority in the House.

- Keep an eye on oil prices. Texas, which is at the core of GOP dysfunction,
is a petro-state with an economy roughly as diverse and modern as Nigeria,
Iran or Venezuela. It was been relatively untouched by the economic collapse
because it is relatively dislocated from the US economy in general. Watch
what happens if the decline in oil prices lasts more than a year.

- For all the talk about economic problems, for the past year the US economy
has been running at '90's levels. Watch Republicans start touting a booming
economy as the result of their 2014 "mandate."

- McConnell's conciliatory statements are encouraging, but he's about to
discover that he cannot persuade Republican Senators and Congressmen to
cooperate on anything constructive. We're about to get two years of intense,
horrifying stupidity. If you thought Benghazi was a legitimate scandal that
reveals Obama's real plans for America then you're an idiot, but these next
two years will be a (briefly) happy period for you.

This is an age built for Republican solutions. The global economy is
undergoing a massive, accelerating transformation that promises massive new
wealth and staggering challenges. We need heads-up, intelligent adaptations
to capitalize on those challenges. Republicans, with their traditional
leadership on commercial issues should be at the leading edge of planning to
capitalize on this emerging environment.

What are we getting from Republicans? Climate denial, theocracy, thinly
veiled racism, paranoia, and Benghazi hearings. Lots and lots of hearings on
Benghazi.

It is almost too late for Republicans to participate in shaping the next
wave of our economic and political transformation. The opportunities we
inherited coming out of the Reagan Era are blinking out of existence one by
one while we chase so-called "issues" so stupid, so blindingly disconnected
from our emerging needs that our grandchildren will look back on our
performance in much the same way that we see the failures of the generation
that fought desegregation.

Something, some force, some gathering of sane, rational, authentically
concerned human beings generally at peace with reality must emerge in the
next four to six years from the right, or our opportunity will be lost for a
long generation. Needless to say, Greg Abbott and Jodi Ernst are not that
force.

"Winning" this election did not help that force emerge. This was a dark week
for Republicans, and for everyone who wants to see America remain the
world's most vibrant, most powerful nation.

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