[Peace-discuss] Two Party System In Spain Comes To End

David Johnson davidjohnson1451 at comcast.net
Tue Dec 22 10:19:18 EST 2015 

Two Party System In Spain Comes To End

Description: Podemos leader and candidate for the election, Pablo Iglesias
(centre) speaks at the Goya Theatre after the results of Spain’s general
election in Madrid Photograph: Gerard Julien/AFP/Getty Images

 <https://www.popularresistance.org/category/create/> Create!
<https://www.popularresistance.org/tag/democracy/> Democracy,
<https://www.popularresistance.org/tag/podemos/> Podemos,
<https://www.popularresistance.org/tag/spain/> Spain 
By Ashifa Kassam,
<http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/20/peoples-party-wins-spanish-ele
ction-absolute-majority> www.theguardian.com
December 21st, 2015

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Podemos leader and candidate for the election, Pablo Iglesias (centre)
speaks at the Goya Theatre after the results of Spain’s general election in
Madrid Photograph: Gerard Julien/AFP/Getty Images

Not Clear Who Will Form A Governing Coalition, Left Bloc Is Largest

Spanish politicians are gearing up for what could be weeks of complicated
negotiations after the general election resulted in a deeply fragmented
parliament, with the conservative People’s party losing ground to national
newcomers  <http://www.theguardian.com/world/podemos> Podemos and
Ciudadanos.

The PP won 123 seats in Sunday’s election, with 29% of the vote, leaving it
far from a majority in the 350-seat legislature. Led by
<http://www.theguardian.com/world/mariano-rajoy> Mariano Rajoy, the current
prime minister, the party has limited possibilities when it comes to the
alliances it now needs to form a stable government majority.

The Socialists, who asserted their place as the traditional rival of the
conservatives throughout the campaign, came second, with 90 seats and 22% of
the vote. With many in  <http://www.theguardian.com/world/spain> Spain still
suffering the lingering effects of an economic crisis that sent unemployment
rates soaring and triggered painful austerity measures, millions of voters
turned away from the PP and Socialists, who have alternated in power for
decades, and instead looked to emerging parties.

Anti-austerity Podemos, barely two years old and born from the
<http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/27/podemos-citizen-politics-sp
ain-elections-indignados-movement> Indignado protests that saw thousands
rally against a political establishment felt to be out of sync with the
people, finished in third place with 69 seats and 21% of the vote, while the
centre-right Ciudadanos won 40 seats and 14% of the vote. “Spain is not
going to be the same anymore and we are very happy,” the Podemos leader,
Pablo Iglesias, said on Sunday. “The bipartisan political system is over.”
The PP and Socialists won a combined vote share of about 50%, compared with
the 70-80% of past general elections.

Podemos did remarkably well across the country, coming first in Catalonia –
where it ran in a coalition with Barcelona en Comú – and the Basque country,
a result that suggested widespread support for its campaign promise to hold
a referendum on Catalan independence. “Today is a historic day for Spain,”
Iglesias told supporters on Sunday night. “Every time there is an election,
the forces of change advance.”

Ciudadanos, launched in 2006 as
<http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/13/ciudadanos-podemos-of-right-po
litical-force-spain-albert-rivera?CMP=share_btn_tw>  a regional party to
counter Catalan separatismand which expanded nationally last year, also
celebrated its result on Sunday. “Today begins a new phase of hope and
excitement,” said its leader,
<http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/10/centre-party-ciudadanos-throws
-spanish-election-results-into-question> Albert Rivera. “Millions in Spain
have decided that things are going to change.”

The results leave open the possibility for Rajoy to become one of the first
leaders in  <http://www.theguardian.com/world/europe-news> Europe to be
re-elected after imposing harsh austerity measures, but he faces a
tremendous uphill battle to take power. “I’m going to try and form a
government,” Rajoy told cheering supporters on Sunday as the results came
in. “But it won’t be easy.”

In order to be able to govern for the next four years, the PP will have to
rely on other parties, suggesting that a protracted process of negotiations
lies ahead for Spain’s political leaders.

Several scenarios are possible. In the run-up to the election, many analysts
had predicted that the new government would be made up of the PP and
supported in some way by Ciudadanos. But now the two parties together are
still short of a majority.Any such alliance would require a third partner, a
scenario that shifts some of the balance of power to regional parties from
Catalonia and the Basque country and will be complicated by both parties’
vehement opposition to Catalan independence and Ciudadanos’ insistence on
eradicating longstanding Basque tax benefits.

If the PP can manage to find enough support or abstentions to survive a vote
of confidence, the conservatives could attempt to rule with a minority
government. The option is fraught with instability, as the party will be
forced to negotiate demands, ranging from constitutional reform to a
referendum in Catalonia, that run counter to their electoral platform.

Many analysts pointed to a pact between the PP and Socialists – a move
roundly rejected by the Socialist party on Monday, who said it would vote
against having acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy form a new government.
Such a pact would have been unprecedented for Spain and likely crippled the
Socialists’ prospects in future elections.

Another alternative, echoing developments in Portugal, would be a coalition
of the Socialists, Podemos and Ciudadanos. However, Rivera said this week
his party would not support what he called a “grouping of losers”,
diminishing the likelihood of this option. Such a coalition would clash over
issues such as Catalan independence – with Ciudadanos opposed to any talk of
a referendum and Podemos promising it would allow Catalans a vote on the
issue – and contradict Podemos’ promises to do away with the regime that has
governed Spain since the return to democracy.

Sunday’s results could allow the Socialists to govern with the support of
Podemos and several smaller parties, such as the Republican Left of
Catalonia, which won nine seats, or Artur Mas’s Convergence party, which won
eight.

If the Socialists are able to amass enough votes to gain control of the
lower house of parliament, their government’s attempts to push forward
initiatives such as constitutional reform would likely be quashed by the
country’s senate, where the election left the PP with an absolute majority.

On Sunday evening the Socialist leader, Pedro Sánchez, congratulated Rajoy
and said he would allow the conservative leader to take the first crack at
forming a government: “It’s up to the first place political force to try and
form a government.” But he noted that the election results had ushered in a
new chapter of Spanish politics, saying: “We’re beginning a new process of
dialogue and agreement.”

The election results will prompt what could be months of negotiations, said
Pablo Simón, a political science professor at Madrid’s Carlos III
University. “They need to talk, they need to negotiate. Anything is
possible.” He pointed to the 1996 election, won by the PP and resulting in a
government propped up by Catalan and Basque nationalists. “The first time PP
came into power, it took two months to reach an agreement.”

Despite a result that ranks as their worst in the party’s modern history,
the Socialists are now key to the question of what comes next, said Emilio
Sáenz-Francés, a professor of history and international relations at
Madrid’s Comillas Pontifical University. “The question is whether Sánchez
will allow Rajoy to lead the government or whether Sánchez will try to build
a coalition of several parties in order to take power,” said Sáenz-Francés.

He pointed to Spain’s King Felipe VI, who by mid-January will have to name
the party that will have the chance to try and form a government. The
candidate must then obtain an absolute majority in a vote of confidence and
if they fail to do so, a simple majority vote will be held 48 hours later.
If the candidate again fails to win the vote, the king must put forward a
new candidate. If no government is formed within two months, new elections
must be held.

Most likely the king will give Rajoy and the PP the first chance to form a
government, given that it won the election, said Sáenz-Francés. “But for the
first time in the history of democracy in Spain, it’s not clear how the
most-voted party will be able to govern.”

 

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