[Peace-discuss] Fw: [ufpj-activist] [syriadiscussion:4714] Re: Question of Nusra Front likely to bedevil Syrian cease-fire talks

Tue Feb 16 22:27:38 EST 2016

From: ufpj-activist <ufpj-activist-bounces+karenaram=hotmail.com at lists.mayfirst.org> on behalf of Robert Naiman <naiman at justforeignpolicy.org>
Sent: Tuesday, February 16, 2016 8:46 PM
To: medea benjamin
Cc: syriadiscussion at googlegroups.com; UFPJ Activist List; Fuki Ozaki; Bruce Cronin; Gail Daneker
Subject: Re: [ufpj-activist] [syriadiscussion:4714] Re: Question of Nusra Front likely to bedevil Syrian cease-fire talks

If you can find one mainstream national Jewish group that will call for a cease-fire with Al Qaeda, I'll donate $500 to your favorite charity.

Robert Naiman
Policy Director
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org<http://www.justforeignpolicy.org>

Just Foreign Policy<http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/>
www.justforeignpolicy.org
Dedicated to reforming U.S. foreign policy to serve the interests and reflect the values of the broad majority of Americans, rather than those of special interests ...

naiman at justforeignpolicy.org<mailto:naiman at justforeignpolicy.org>
(202) 448-2898 x1

On Tue, Feb 16, 2016 at 3:36 PM, medea benjamin <medea.benjamin at gmail.com<mailto:medea.benjamin at gmail.com>> wrote:
Yes, Kathy Kelly, Ann Wright and I were talking about this same thing, and I second the need for faith-based groups. Medea
On Feb 16, 2016, at 11:58 AM, David McReynolds <davidmcreynolds7 at gmail.com<mailto:davidmcreynolds7 at gmail.com>> wrote:

I agree, Michael. A proposal long overdue. I had tried, surely over a year ago, to urge the peace and religious groups to send delegations to all the UN Missions and Embassies of those involved - on any side - to make direct appeal for an end of using Syria to advance political objectives. But I have no "base", in my retirement.

The problem up to now has been that each group has made proposals that only supported the side they had chosen.

It would be essential to get religious groups to come into this. I can guarantee that if this is adopted by the sectarian groups it will be dead on arrival - but if we can involve groups such as the AFSC, some key Catholic, Protestant, and Jewish groups, I think it can take off.

I'm with you on this.

David

On Tue, Feb 16, 2016 at 2:20 AM, Michael Eisenscher <m_eisenscher at uslaboragainstwar.org<mailto:m_eisenscher at uslaboragainstwar.org>> wrote:

I expect there's enough in this article to piss everybody off.

The people who are victims of the Russian and Syrian government bombs, the American and allied missiles, and the Turkish, opposition militia, ISIS and Nusra Front mortar and artillery shells do not likely give a crap whose dropping or firing them. No matter whose flag is painted on the ordnance, they end up just as dead, maimed and displaced.  And everyone, on all sides of this barbaric conflict, is pointing fingers at someone else.

I agree with Raed and others who say that we in the US have a special responsibility to respond to the transgressions of our own government.  But, as he also points out, that does not relieve us of the responsibility to respond to the transgressions of others.  We can continue to debate whose hands are bloodier, which party bears the heaviest responsibility.  Continuing to do so as some point makes those who feel compelled to engage in that argument complicit in the continuing slaughter.

My question is what are the most effective steps we can take to hold all parties to account to end the slaughter?

The antiwar movement has been paralyzed by this conflict and as a consequence ineffectual.

Can we put aside our differences long enough to consider what we can do together to demand that the slaughter must cease and serious political negotiations must take place to reach an agreement that ends the bloodletting?

I'll throw out a proposal to get that discussion going.

Would it be possible for all the organizations to call for a massive demonstration at the United Nations to which we invite delegations from all over the world to participate or ask that they organize comparable actions in their own countries to demand of all our governments that the killing must stop and serious negotiations begin?

On February 15, 2003, the whole world said no to war.  Is it possible for us to be a catalyst for a call for all those who remain committed to that demand to once again take to the streets in a global action?

Michael

Question of Nusra Front likely to bedevil Syrian cease-fire talks

A move toward a possible break in fighting in Syria faces many hurdles

Among them: What constitutes a terrorist group?

Syria protagonists have yet to say they’ll go along with U.S.-Russia announcement

[http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/world/p6ps64/picture60125636/ALTERNATES/FREE_960/Germany%20Syria%20%282%29]

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, right, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announce an agreement for a possible cease-fire early Friday, Feb. 12, 2016, in Munich. Matthias Schrader AP
Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/world/article60125646.html#emlnl=Evening_Newsletter#storylink=cpy<http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/world/article60125646.html#emlnl=Evening_Newsletter%23storylink=cpy>

BY HANNAH ALLAM
hallam at mcclatchydc.com<mailto:hallam at mcclatchydc.com>

  *
  *
  *
  *
     *   LINKEDIN<http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.mcclatchydc.com%2fnews%2fnation-world%2fworld%2farticle60125646.html&title=Question+of+Nusra+Front+likely+to+bedevil+Syrian+cease-fire+talks>
     *   GOOGLE+<https://plus.google.com/share?url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.mcclatchydc.com%2fnews%2fnation-world%2fworld%2farticle60125646.html>
     *   PINTEREST<http://www.pinterest.com/pin/create/button/?url=http%3a%2f%2fwww.mcclatchydc.com%2fnews%2fnation-world%2fworld%2farticle60125646.html&description=Question+of+Nusra+Front+likely+to+bedevil+Syrian+cease-fire+talks&media=http%3a%2f%2fwww.mcclatchydc.com%2fnews%2fnation-world%2fworld%2fp6ps64%2fpicture60125636%2fALTERNATES%2fLANDSCAPE_1140%2fGermany%2520Syria%2520%282%29>
     *   REDDIT<http://www.reddit.com/submit?url=http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/world/article60125646.html>
     *   PRINT
     *   ORDER REPRINT OF THIS STORY<http://www.mcclatchyreprints.com/>

WASHINGTON

After four years of carnage in Syria, the bar for good news is so low that the word “cease-fire” sounded encouraging when Secretary of State John Kerry announced early Friday in Germany that world powers had reached an agreement intended to pause fighting in the conflict.

Within a day, however, professional observers of the war had concluded that the development is fragile at best, with make-or-break issues left unaddressed, starting with whether both the Syrian government and the rebels would even accept the terms.

Supposing it makes it past that basic hurdle, the agreement then faces an even tougher challenge: the determination of which fighting groups are terrorists and which are acceptable partners to implement the deal, which doesn’t cover terrorist groups. A task force co-chaired by Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is expected to tackle that issue, a perennial dispute that threatens the viability of peace talks.

The “cessation of hostilities” deal hammered out in Munich under United Nations auspices excludes the Islamic State and al Qaida’s Nusra Front by name. While the Islamic State has few friends among rebel factions, the Nusra question is more complicated, given the group’s entrenchment in eight of the nine areas rebels control and its record of cooperation with Western-backed rebels.

The Nusra Front, known in Arabic as Jabhat al Nusra, operates in or has access to virtually every rebel-held area, and its leader has vowed to keep fighting the government of President Bashar Assad no matter what peace plan foreign powers attempt to impose. The Munich agreement doesn’t stop Russia – or the United States, for that matter – from attacking Nusra positions. With Nusra fighters scattered across so much territory, it’s hard to imagine even a brief cessation of hostilities, much less a broader cease-fire.

NUSRA IS COMPLETELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SYRIAN OPPOSITION AND THEREFORE RETAINS THE ABILITY TO SPOIL EVEN LOCALIZED CEASE-FIRE AGREEMENTS.Jennifer Cafarella, a Syria specialist

“It all depends on what the intentions are of the Russians,” said Fred Hof, who led the State Department's early response to the Syrian uprising and is now with the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East at the Atlantic Council. “If the Russians decide the central interest is continuing the military campaign and marginalizing or neutralizing all alternatives to Assad and ISIS, then the fact that Nusra elements are spread all over – Idlib and Aleppo provinces – gives them kind of a permission to do what they want.”

The State Department doesn’t dismiss the steep challenges ahead. Spokesman Mark Toner reiterated to reporters Friday that a “cessation of hostilities” is not the same as a durable agreement to end the war. Echoing Kerry, Toner called it “a pause” in hostilities and sounded sober about its prospects for success.

“A cease-fire is more the end of a conflict in most people’s minds and judgments – that’s not where we are,” Toner said.

The Institute for the Study of War released a report <http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/PLANEX%20Report%203%20FINAL.pdf> this week assessing the Nusra Front’s strengths and the problems it presents for U.S. strategy in Syria. Researchers found that Nusra is uniquely positioned for longevity, its strength derived from perceived legitimacy as a primarily Syrian group with religious credentials, a reputation for mediating rebel disputes, control of humanitarian aid, well trained and disciplined forces and a willingness to ease its heavy handedness when it senses locals becoming uneasy.

“The issue here is that Nusra is completely embedded within the Syrian opposition and therefore retains the ability to spoil even localized cease-fire agreements,” said Jennifer Cafarella, a Syria specialist at the institute and one of the authors of the report.

“Nusra can access almost any piece of terrain that the Syrian opposition holds. It is present on almost every front line in some way,” she added.

The picture gets even murkier with a section of the Munich agreement that excludes not only Islamic State and Nusra but unspecified “other groups designated as terrorist organizations by the United Nations Security Council.”

WESTERN REFINED EXPERTS MUST KNOW THAT NOT ALL TERRORISTS IN SYRIA ARE WALKING WITH BLACK FLAGS AND WRITINGS ON THEIR BACKS ABOUT BELONGING TO A TERRORIST GROUPING.Russian Defense Ministry

On the ground, that reads as a threat to ultraconservative Islamist groups such as Jaysh al Islam, also known as the Army of Islam<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaysh_al-Islam>, and Ahrar al Sham<http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/world/middle-east/article24773947.html>, perhaps the largest rebel group whose founders had ties to al Qaida. Syrian regime ally Russia considers them terrorist groups, and the United States has deep misgivings about their ultimate goals for Syria<http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/world/article48058665.html>, but they enjoy popular support from the ground and, in strategic areas, are vital to the rebel cause.

“If Russia continues to strike these groups, the cessation of hostilities is likely to collapse,”warned Chatham House<https://medium.com/@ChathamHouse/syrian-ceasefire-five-things-you-should-know-90cd49ab82b8#.7u6unw5ue>, the London-based foreign policy institute, in a statement on the Munich deal.

The Russian Defense Ministry <http://eng.syria.mil.ru/en/index/syria/news/more.htm?id=12078017@egNews> on Friday rejected criticism that its targeting in Syria is overly broad, saying in a statement on the ministry’s website that Moscow conducts a multi-layered intelligence assessment before identifying a target. It also acknowledged, however, that its targets extend beyond the Islamic State, suggesting that it would be unrealistic to expect Moscow to stop hitting the groups it considers terrorists.

“Western refined experts must know that not all terrorists in Syria are walking with black flags and writings on their backs about belonging to a terrorist grouping,” the Russian statement said.

The confusion over terrorist labels plays right into Moscow’s hands, analysts warned, and there’s little Kerry could do to save the Munich deal if Russian strikes help derail it.

“He is asking Russia, Iran and the Assad regime to set aside the strategy and tactics they’ve been pursuing for the sake of saving lives and starting a real diplomatic process that leads to real transition in Syria,” Hof said.

“More power to him if he can talk them out of doing what they’re doing,” he added. “But it’s going to be problematic because leverage-free diplomacy doesn’t have a history of success.”

MATTHEW SCHOFIELD CONTRIBUTED TO THIS ARTICLE FROM BERLIN.

Hannah Allam: 202-383-6186<tel:202-383-6186>, @HannahAllam<https://twitter.com/HannahAllam>

_______________________________________________
ufpj-activist mailing list

Post: ufpj-activist at lists.mayfirst.org<mailto:ufpj-activist at lists.mayfirst.org>
List info: https://lists.mayfirst.org/mailman/listinfo/ufpj-activist

To Unsubscribe
        Send email to:  ufpj-activist-unsubscribe at lists.mayfirst.org<mailto:ufpj-activist-unsubscribe at lists.mayfirst.org>
        Or visit: https://lists.mayfirst.org/mailman/options/ufpj-activist/davidmcreynolds7%40gmail.com

You are subscribed as: davidmcreynolds7 at gmail.com<mailto:davidmcreynolds7 at gmail.com>

_______________________________________________
ufpj-activist mailing list

Post: ufpj-activist at lists.mayfirst.org<mailto:ufpj-activist at lists.mayfirst.org>
List info: https://lists.mayfirst.org/mailman/listinfo/ufpj-activist

To Unsubscribe
       Send email to:  ufpj-activist-unsubscribe at lists.mayfirst.org<mailto:ufpj-activist-unsubscribe at lists.mayfirst.org>
       Or visit: https://lists.mayfirst.org/mailman/options/ufpj-activist/medea.benjamin%40gmail.com

You are subscribed as: medea.benjamin at gmail.com<mailto:medea.benjamin at gmail.com>

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "SyriaDiscussion" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to syriadiscussion+unsubscribe at googlegroups.com<mailto:syriadiscussion+unsubscribe at googlegroups.com>.
To post to this group, send email to syriadiscussion at googlegroups.com<mailto:syriadiscussion at googlegroups.com>.
Visit this group at https://groups.google.com/group/syriadiscussion.
For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.chambana.net/pipermail/peace-discuss/attachments/20160217/c3df6bd3/attachment-0003.html>
-------------- next part --------------
An embedded and charset-unspecified text was scrubbed...
Name: ATT00001.txt
URL: <http://lists.chambana.net/pipermail/peace-discuss/attachments/20160217/c3df6bd3/attachment-0003.txt>