[Peace-discuss] My take on Hillary and the TTP

[Robert Naiman]

That's not what Stiglitz said on Democracy Now.

http://www.democracynow.org/2016/7/28/will_hillary_clinton_flip_flop_again

*AMY GOODMAN:* It’s great to have you with us. So, you know, I was there on
the convention floor yesterday, each day, hundreds of anti-TPP signs. You
advise Hillary Clinton. What is her position on the TPP?

*JOSEPH STIGLITZ:* She’s against it. And she’s against bringing it up to a
vote in the lame-duck session, which was allegedly part of the Obama
strategy, you know, that they’re not going to present it to Congress until
they—the idea was not to do it until the lame-duck. Everybody has come out
against the lame-duck. And so, I think it’s dead for Obama’s administration.

*AMY GOODMAN:* And what will that mean for the next president?

*JOSEPH STIGLITZ:* I think it makes it very clear that if there is ever to
be a TPP, it has to be totally renegotiated. And the interesting thing is,
I’ve talked to some of our trading partners, they would welcome that. Some
of the worst provisions in there were not because our partners demanded it,
it was because we demanded it. When I say "we," it was the corporate
interests that, unfortunately, were represented in the negotiations, not we
the American people. And, you know, to me, I was an early opponent of TPP.
And it’s so heartwarming to see that an issue that I thought would never
get raised—you know, I thought it—and I think the Obama strategy was to try
to push it through when nobody was looking—to see that it’s now become a
mainstream issue. So, to me, this is a real victory for democracy.

*AMY GOODMAN:* Now, you said you were an early opponent. The person you
advise, Hillary Clinton, was not an early opponent. She said it was the
gold standard, I think was her term, for trade agreements. She has been
immensely pressured by, I think, what has shocked the Clinton juggernaut,
and that is the tremendous popularity of Bernie Sanders, even if he doesn’t
have much corporate media amplification of his views, like Donald Trump
does, and she saw she had to change. I mean, you see it on the floor every
single day of the convention.

*JOSEPH STIGLITZ:* Yeah, I think that’s right, but it’s more than that. I
mean, as people started looking at what actually emerged from the
negotiations—remember, it was all secret. What we—all we could only figure
out was what was coming out of leaks, which turned out to be remarkably
accurate. You know, the leaks often do provide some information that, for
good reason, the Obama administration didn’t want. And as others have
looked at that agreement—even the U.S. government did an estimate of what
would be the trade benefit. You know, how would—what would be the benefit
to GDP? Negligible. Outside studies, like at Tufts University, said it
would actually decrease our GDP. So, the benefits, as the agreement has
become out in the open, have clearly—have been seen clearly negative. And
the cost—you mentioned, you know, the cost in terms of access to drugs,
pricing of drugs. And, to me, the most important aspect, the dampener on
regulation, what is called the ISDSprovision, the investment agreement,
that’s the provision that Elizabeth Warren has really nailed the TPP on,
and she’s absolutely right.

*AMY GOODMAN:* So, what makes you so sure what Hillary Clinton’s stance is?
She chooses her running mate, Timothy Kaine. And Tim Kaine, the senator of
Virginia, I think as early—as late as Thursday, was hailing the TPP, but
then chosen, given the climate, you know, says he is against it. You have
McAuliffe, the governor of Virginia, extremely close to the Clintons, who
says she’s for it. What do you know that he doesn’t know?

*JOSEPH STIGLITZ:* Well, I think part of this is that the Democratic
platform, which is a commitment of the Democratic Party, came out with a
set of principles that any trade agreement, current or past, has to satisfy
it. And if you look at those principles, the TPP, in its current form,
doesn’t satisfy it. NAFTA doesn’t satisfy it. So, to me, although they
didn’t make it explicit—

*AMY GOODMAN:* But, I mean, that was—a lot of especially the Bernie
delegates on that platform committee pushed hard for no TPP, and Clinton
campaign pushed very hard back, and she won.

*JOSEPH STIGLITZ:* Yeah. But, to me, my understanding of that was they
didn’t want to embarrass President Obama. But you read those principles,
what a trade agreement has to satisfy, and it’s pretty obvious
that TPP doesn’t satisfy it, NAFTAdoesn’t satisfy it. So, my
interpretation, it’s a commitment of Hillary, the next Democratic
administration, to renegotiate NAFTA and to renegotiate TPP. The
interesting thing is, again, I’ve talked to some of our trade partners
in NAFTA, in TPP, and they would welcome that. So, it’s an open door.

*AMY GOODMAN:* What does Hillary Clinton say privately to you?

*JOSEPH STIGLITZ:* Well, I haven’t talked to her particularly on this, but
I have talked to the policy team on it, and I think they are very aware why
there’s such hostility, where TPP went wrong. And that, I think, was a
wake-up call. You know, there was this sort of ideology that was very
strong—you know, trade is what promotes growth, we’re in favor of growth,
we want to create jobs, you know, all that. And now that you actually see
the agreement and you look at what the studies say, there’s no GDPcoming
out of this.

*AMY GOODMAN:* What does Clinton’s selection of Kaine tell you?

*JOSEPH STIGLITZ:* Well, I think it’s—she’s looking for somebody that gives
her credibility with the middle. And she was trying to make a political
judgment about what was the best way to win the election, because, let me
say, I believe unambiguously there’s one big issue here. The damage that
Trump would inflict in our society, if he were elected, is enormous.

*AMY GOODMAN:* How?

*JOSEPH STIGLITZ:* Anywhere from racism to his economic policies. So, to
me, there’s no choice. You know, it is really imperative that the
Democratic—you know, Hillary wins. And then, if I were in a position, the
question is: What is the best vice president to win, consistent with my
values? You know, and the vice—

*AMY GOODMAN:* Would Tim Kaine have been your pick?

*JOSEPH STIGLITZ:* There are some other candidates that I would have looked
at. There’s one other feature that, you know, when I—when you start doing
the calculations, some of the best candidates are senators from states
where there’s a Republican governor. And if you appoint the Democratic
senator, the Republican governor can put a next senator in line. And
holding the Senate for the Democrats is extraordinarily important,
important for the Supreme Court, one of the really big issues our country
faces. So, I guess what I would say is, these are very complicated
trade-offs, judgments. You know, the good thing is that in Virginia, I
think Kaine will be replaced by another Democratic senator, so that won’t
have that negative effect. A lot of the other—well, I’ve met with Kaine. I
can understand why she would have a lot of confidence in him. And I do hope
he will change his position on TPP. Obviously, if he’s going to support the
Democratic platform, he has to change.

*AMY GOODMAN:* Supported fast track, giving President Obama fast track for
pushing through TPP.

*JOSEPH STIGLITZ:* I think that was a wrong position. But the fact that—

*AMY GOODMAN:* Also joining with a number of other senators in fighting
regulations of large regional banks, this just in the last few weeks.

*JOSEPH STIGLITZ:* And again, the issue is, once you join on the Democratic
platform, I think he’s committed to supporting the Democratic platform. And—

*AMY GOODMAN:* We’re talking to the Nobel Prize-winning economist Joe
Stiglitz. We’ll be back with him in a minute.

I want to ask about how Bernie Sanders has impacted Clinton’s economic
policies, but turn first to President Obama, who mentioned the Vermont
senator, the former presidential candidate, last night.

*PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA:* So, if you agree that there’s too much inequality
in our economy and too much money in our politics, we all need to be as
vocal and as organized and as persistent as Bernie Sanders’ supporters have
been during this election. We all need to get out and vote for Democrats up
and down the ticket, and then hold them accountable until they get the job
done. That’s right. Feel the Bern.

*AMY GOODMAN:* Wow, so there you have President Obama saying "Feel the
Bern," Joe Stiglitz. I think that’s something he certainly felt.

*JOSEPH STIGLITZ:* I think that’s right. And I think the movement, as
actually Sanders has talked about it, is a very important movement, and
holding those elected accountable. You know, the Sanders people did have an
impact on the Democratic platform, absolutely. And now, we are going to
have to hold accountable those people, including Hillary and Kaine. We’re
going to have to hold them accountable, so that they actually push for that
agenda.

*AMY GOODMAN:* You advise Hillary Clinton. What is the best way to hold her
accountable? Since you don’t agree on a number of issues, what does she
respond to?

*JOSEPH STIGLITZ:* Well, I think, partly, she’s a policy wonk. And so, she
does respond to arguments. And, you know, over the last couple years, I’ve
been trying to make strong arguments about why TPP is bad, not only in
terms of the trade issues, the GDP, but access to health, regulation. I’ve
been trying to say it’s not an issue of just dealing with the shadow
banking system. It’s not an issue of just dealing with the "too big to
fail" banks, the too big to regulate, the too big—we’ve got to do both. So,
it wasn’t—you know, Sanders took one position. Hillary took the other. My
view has been, look, these banks have done so much damage to our economy,
both in terms of the 2008 crisis, but also increasing inequality and
changing the focus to a short-term perspective. And that’s one of the areas
which she’s picked up very strongly in a couple very powerful speeches
about the dangers of short-termism, the kinds of policy that have led to
that kind of short-termism. You know, I laid out in a book that we did for
the Roosevelt called *Rewriting the Rules*, showing how, beginning with the
Reagan administration, we rewrote the rules of the American economy to
promote inequality and short-termism, and what you have to—

*AMY GOODMAN:* What most damaged the U.S. economy, do you believe, and
created, generated the most inequality?

*JOSEPH STIGLITZ:* The single most important thing, probably, in—the most
telling event was obviously the 2008 crisis, which is very linked to the
financial sector. But one of the things that I’ve emphasized in my work and
in *Rewriting the Rules* is that there’s no single measure. It’s
accumulation of thing after thing after thing. It’s the failure to have
inclusion, inclusion of African Americans, inclusion of women, because we
are almost the only civilized society that doesn’t have family leave, that
makes it more difficult for women to be in the labor force. That’s an
important—you know, we don’t have a law that says you can’t discriminate in
wages against women. That’s one of the things that Hillary has emphasized a
lot. That both creates inequality and damages our economy.

*AMY GOODMAN:* You—

*JOSEPH STIGLITZ:* Education, access to education.

*AMY GOODMAN:* You wrote a piece
<http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/06/joseph-e-stiglitz-on-donald-trumps-biggest-vulnerability>
 in *Vanity Fair* headlined "Donald Trump’s Biggest Vulnerability." What is
it?

*JOSEPH STIGLITZ:* What I emphasize there is the difficulty that he’s going
to have of even getting good Republicans to serve, you know, creating the
administration. It’s not just one person. I mean, he tries to say, and this
is—Kaine gave a very powerful speech, and he said, "Believe me, I’ll do
it." Government is not that way. And democratic government is particularly
not that way. You need to have hundreds and hundreds of people implementing
those policies. You know, you have different agencies. And we are different
from other countries, where the president has to appoint not only the
secretary, the deputy secretary, the undersecretary, the assistant
secretary, the—you know, in many cases, the deputy assistant secretary.
That’s a huge number of people. And getting—you know, take just in the area
of economics, getting people who are good economists, who will work with
Trump, is going to be extraordinarily difficult.

*AMY GOODMAN:* Donald Trump has called for getting rid of the WTO, the
World Trade Organization—certainly, activists on the ground, 1999, the
Battle of Seattle, that’s what they were calling for—totally challenging
the TPP. Mixed message coming out of the Democrats. Are you concerned about
this? And do you think Donald Trump could win? I mean, the polls show,
coming out at this point, he’s ahead.

*JOSEPH STIGLITZ:* He could win. And it’s not just the polls. Remember,
Bush did not get a majority of votes; Gore got many more votes than Bush.
But the way our electoral system works is that you can become the president
even with a minority of votes. So, when we say could Trump be the
president, he doesn’t even have to win the majority of votes. He could win
in the Electoral College. So, yes, I am very worried. And one of the things
that I’ve been writing recently is, he’s already done an enormous amount of
damage to the United States.

*AMY GOODMAN:* Trump campaign chief Paul Manafort said today, "Mr. Trump
has said his taxes are under audit, and he will not be releasing them." Why
does that matter, Joe Stiglitz?

*JOSEPH STIGLITZ:* Oh, it matters because there is a good reason why we
suspect that he has not been honest about either where his wealth is, what
his charitable contributions is, or that he’s paid a fair share of his
taxes. Now, even if they’re under audit, he can release the taxes that he
claims. You know, the IRS may say, "You’re wrong," but you can still say,
"This is what I believed my income was. This is what I believed the taxes
that I should have paid." And that will tell an important message. You
know, when Mitt Romney released his taxes and it became clear he was
keeping his money in the Cayman Islands, not because, the Cayman Islands,
money grows stronger in the sunshine in the Cayman Islands, but because
there were other reasons, that told Americans a lot, that he was paying
under 15 percent of his income. What his taxes were as a fraction of his
income were much, much lower than a plumber or some other person who’s
working for a living. Something was going on that Americans said was
unfair. We would like to know, is Trump paying his fair share? You know,
he’s engaged in bad practices in Trump University, stiffed his workers and
all kinds of bad practice. We want to know, is he a good citizen? Is he
paying his fair share of taxes? So I think it’s really important. And I
think it’s really important that his vice president release his taxes, as
well.


Robert Naiman
Policy Director
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org
naiman at justforeignpolicy.org
(202) 448-2898 x1

On Fri, Jul 29, 2016 at 8:36 AM, Karen Aram via Peace-discuss <
peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net> wrote:

> Will Hillary support TTP? Seems to be a major policy question. Joseph
> Stiglitz, a Nobel prize economist, "she probably will after making some
> changes". I have no doubt she will support it, she will support it with
> gusto, the same policies of the Obama administration, just as he did the
> Bush administration before him. Yes, she will insist on changes, its called
> USG plan B, or C or D. When you get push back, and can't get something
> passed because it has been noted that its dangerous, cruel or without
> merit, immoral or just wrong. You change the name, take out that which is
> disturbing to others, rewrite it in order to disguise it, and then bury it
> in reams of material so that its almost impossible to find. You know, the
> way insurance policies have become, contracts, all the fine print on
> everything warning us of the dangers that require a microscope to discover,
> then you repackage it as a "positive" better or unrelated to the previous,
> and of course always, always ignore the "negatives" it imposes. You know,
> like the EU, Nafta, doing away with banking regulations, unions, etc.
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Peace-discuss mailing list
> Peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net
> https://lists.chambana.net/mailman/listinfo/peace-discuss
>
>
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