[Peace-discuss] No honour among thieves: Saudi war on Yemen falling apart

Mon Feb 5 18:57:57 UTC 2018

Saturday, February 3, 2018

Saudi war on Yemen falling apart 

No honour among thieves: Saudi war on Yemen falling apart
Hamid Alizadeh
02 February 2018 

 <https://www.marxist.com/tag/yemen.htm> Yemen
<https://www.marxist.com/tag/saudi-arabia.htm> Saudi Arabia 

https://www.marxist.com/images/cache/cc17d3ec794fdbf3bfda40370e50b88e_w800_h
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       Air strike in Yemen / Image: public domain

Over the past week, tensions within the Saudi led coalition fighting Houthi
forces in Yemen have reached a critical point. Between Sunday and Wednesday,
troops loyal to the Southern Transitional Council (STC) took hold of all but
a few remaining areas of the port city of Aden and surrounded the
presidential palace in which the cabinet was essentially besieged.

The events followed a conflict between the Saudi supported Hadi government
and the STC the previous week where the government reportedly cracked down
on a rally called by the STC. Following this, and blaming the government for
corruption, non-payment of wages and for causing the collapse of the Yemeni
Rial, the STC set a deadline for the removal of the cabinet headed by Prime
Minister Ahmed Obeid bin Dagher.

Seeing that its demands were not met, troops loyal to the STC quickly swept
through the city taking over all but a few of its neighbourhoods and
effectively besieging the presidential palace with some reports claiming
that the Saudi troops guarding the palace had already been defeated.
Significantly, there have been reports of Emirati jets giving aircover for
the advancing STC linked forces against Saudi linked troops. 

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<https://www.marxist.com/images/cache/7e5ab18e23360ae5484550bd00c2de3e_w720_
h720.JPG> Yemeni soldiers from the 1st Armoured Division Image public domain

Yemeni soldiers / Image: public domain

On Wednesday, a deal seems to have been reached which, if confirmed, will
mark a full victory for the separatists and a complete humiliation for the
Saudis and their puppet regime. According to the reports the deal includes
the following points: All of Aden's security will be left in the hands of
Emirati and STC linked forces; the STC will become the recognised entity
representing southern Yemen and an equal partner in the Saudi-led coalition;
the present government will be sacked and a new one formed where the STC
will nominate ministers and governors who preside over the matters relating
to the south; the UAE will organise a separate army of South Yemen; the UAE
will be responsible for the rebuilding of Aden and supervising services in
cooperation with the STC.

Ejected from all the main cities, Saudi troops are being left with little
room to manoeuvre. The coalition is now a hostage of the STC which is the
only real force wielding power on the ground in the south - at least in the
main cities. The Hadi government is reduced to being a government of the
frontlines, although even here it is not in control of the myriad of
mercenary, Jihadi and tribal forces it has enlisted. The STC has confirmed
its intention to continue to support the Saudi effort to fight the Houthis
who took power in Sanaa and northern Yemen in 2015, but it is clear that it
is far more interested in fighting Al Qaeda and consolidating power in its
own areas. Southern forces have little support in Houthi dominated areas,
and they are not motivated to wage a war for those areas either. A de facto
splitting off of southern Yemen has taken place, falling under the influence
of the UAE and not Saudi Arabia.

Southern-Hadi relations

Since unification with the north in 1990 southern Yemen has rebelled a
series of times against northern domination. After the fall of Ali Abdullah
Saleh in the 2011 revolution, all political forces including southern
Nationalist leaders joined the Saudi promoted transitional regime led by
Hadi. But seeing nothing had changed fundamentally, the masses quickly
returned to the streets. In the south the movement quickly became the most
formidable threat against the government. Disillusioned with the rotten
Saudi imposed transitional regime, and lacking a revolutionary
internationalist working class leadership, the demands for secession gained
ground. In the north, the lack of any revolutionary alternative left a
vacuum that the Houthi forces stepped into, taking power in early 2015 and
forcefully trying to expand their rule throughout the country. This led to
clashes with nationalist militias in the south which became key elements in
taking the city of Aden. Whereas the southern nationalist militias
officially became a part of the Saudi led war coalition, they were never
motivated to go beyond their own traditional areas and they were always
mistrustful of Hadi and his government.

No honour among thieves

Having embarked on the war against the Houthi forces after these took power
in 2015, the Emiratis and the Saudis thought the war would be a quick
affair. But the front lines quickly froze revealing the complete lack of
support for the war and the Hadi regime that it was promoting. Seeing the
impending defeat, the United Arab Emirates, that have been the closest ally
of Saudi Arabia in the past period, changed their focus away from the
ongoing war. For Saudi Arabia withdrawal is not as simple.

The Saudi crown prince Muhammad bin Salman (MBS), who is the real ruler of
the kingdom, bet a lot of his authority on the war. While imposing austerity
at home, he has spent billions in fighting the Houthi forces and achieving
nothing. With Saudi society in a deep top to bottom crisis, a defeat would
immediately strengthen MBS's opponents in the royal clique, as well as lead
to rising anger amongst the masses. One of the main reasons for starting the
war was for MBS to give a concession to the Saudi Jihadi movement, which in
spite of being at the heart of the kingdom, is also fiercely opposed to the
royal family. But having failed to export these forces, they are sure to
come back home to the roost. Finally, a defeat for Saudi Arabia in Yemen
would immediately consolidate Houthi rule as well as give Iran, a Houthi
ally, an important base on its border. Thus a defeat would spell disaster
for Saudi Arabia.
Muhammad bin Salman Image RuMuhammad bin Salman / Image: Ru

The UAE, on the other hand, has few of such concerns. While it would seem
that the move to consolidate power in Aden was done without Emirati
approval, it nevertheless is in line with the general trend followed by the
Emiratis. That is, to gradually disengage from the war on the Houthis and
focus on setting up its own power base mainly centred around Aden which has
a strategic position at the Bab-el-Mandeb strait. Furthermore the Emiratis
are intent on fighting Al Qaeda, whereas the Saudis are less interested in
that. The Emirates, and in particular its ruler Khalifa bin Zayed bin Sultan
Al Nahyan, have had a close relationship with MBS and were instrumental in
helping him rise in the ranks of the Saudi royal family. In the past period
where Saudi Arabia has been increasingly isolated internationally, coming
into conflict with Turkey, Qatar and even the US, the Emirates have been the
kingdom's closest allies. But the changing circumstances on the ground are
damaging this alliance.

It is clear that the war on the Houthis was lost a long time ago. The Hadi
regime is never going to rule Yemen. Hadi was appointed in 2012 and his term
ran out in 2014. He is completely discredited and his compliance with his
Saudi masters and the brutality of the war he supports have left him with no
base whatsoever on the ground. The Emiratis are merely pulling out and
having built a base on the ground, gaining leverage over the Saudis who now
need Emirati compliance to operate in Yemen.

More importantly, it is not certain which side the US will take. US
imperialism, although it is deeply involved in the war, has been wanting to
pull it back in from the beginning. It is far more worried about the rise of
Al Qaeda than defeating the Houthis who have often worked with the US in the
past. There has so far been no official US response to the events in Aden.
This indicates that Donald Trump's promise of sticking to US allies, are
just as empty as Obama's. In Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Qatar, US imperialism
has taken decisions which were directly opposed to the wishes of the Saudis.
This is because it is not in the US's interests.

Saudi Arabia in crisis

What is taking place in Yemen is yet another part of the existential crisis
of Saudi Arabia. Although the war on Yemen was clearly a shortsighted and
stupid move from the point of view of the Kingdom's ruling class, yet there
is a logic to it. Like the recent civil wars in Syria and Iraq, the Yemeni
war was started partially to combat Iran's growing influence, but more
importantly in order to appease the Wahhabi opposition movement inside the
Kingdom itself. The crisis of US imperialism and the economic crisis is
upsetting the delicate balance on which the kingdom was built. While MBS is
trying to appease the youth and the demands for democracy with small
democratic concessions at home, he is trying to appease the clerics with
international adventures against a phantom Shia threat. But none of these
will satisfy the needs of any of these groups. Meanwhile the royal family
itself and the tribes which are connected to it, are in a vicious internal
war which so far has seen MBS's faction succeed. But rest assured that once
his star begins to fade, all the knives will be out for him.

The defeat in Yemen will increase all of the pressures which are building
up. Many times in history a military defeat has been the forerunner to
revolution. In Russia this was the case both in 1905 and in 1917. What the
result of a social explosion will be in Saudi Arabia is hard to tell, but it
is clear that the status quo is bound to break up at a certain point.

Destroyed house in the south of Sanaa Image public domainDestroyed house in
the south of Sana'a / Image: public domain

This stage in the decline is the most dangerous in the life of any regime.
The Yemeni masses are feeling this everyday. The situation does not look
bright. The Saudi war has destroyed all of the main infrastructure of the
country. It has killed tens of thousands and left millions in a state of
starvation. Yemen was already the poorest arab country, now huge parts of it
have been reduced to a state of barbarism.

The masses in Yemen rose up heroically during the 2011 revolution, but they
were not able to take take power into their own hands due to the lack of
leadership. Thus the power vacuum was filled by a whole series of different
counter-revolutionary groups who now hold the Yemeni masses hostage to their
own reactionary internal conflict. That is a bitter lesson to learn, but it
serves to prove that no capitalist force can solve the problems of the
masses of the Middle East.

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