[Peace-discuss] debate in Iran about prospects of anti-Iran Trump-Russia deal

[David Green]

*https://therealnews.com/stories/nato-shields-u-s-from-its-military-adventures
<https://therealnews.com/stories/nato-shields-u-s-from-its-military-adventures>*

EIRIK VOLD: Well, I mean, the one hypothesis, I’m sure, is that he’s sort
of hedging, he’s trying to shield himself from future allegation of him
colluding, or, or caving in to Putin if he gives-. Which is, which are sure
to come, if he gives even the slightest, tiniest concession to the
Russians, or try to sort of deescalate the very dangerous and unnecessary
tensions between the nuclear powers, U.S. and my neighbor country, Russia.
So I’m sure he-. That’s one hypothesis.

Now, I think a more compelling hypothesis is simply that Trump is being,
just as he’s being a salesman for, for the U.S. arms industry when he’s
pushing Europe to, to increase its military spending, and particularly buy
U.S.-made weaponry. He is being now, he’s speaking on behalf of the U.S.
oil and gas industry, the petroleum industry, trying to convince Europe to
substitute Russian petroleum for U.S. gas, and basically capturing the
European market for U.S. gas exports. That is a more compelling hypothesis.

Now, let’s keep in mind that I think that Trump can better be understood as
a businessman than as a person who is particularly ideological when it
comes to international relations. And in this case I don’t think it’s
particularly interesting to see his personal opinion. Putin doesn’t really
count, because Trump wants a more, he probably wants a more constructive
relationship between the U.S. and Russia. But he doesn’t necessarily want a
constructive relationship between Europe and Russia, because that
relationship would mean further economic relations between Europe and
Russia, and it would mean a bigger difficulty, would mean an obstacle,
particularly the Nord Stream pipeline which he’s talking about, will mean
an obstacle for U.S. petroleum exports to Europe.

So I think this is, what we’re seeing here, is Trump the oil industry and
arms industry salesman, and that’s both in the case of his demand, his
complaints about Europe’s military spending, and his, to some, very
surprising rant against German imports of Russian energy resources.


On Thu, Jul 12, 2018 at 11:01 AM C G Estabrook via Peace-discuss <
peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net> wrote:

> Right to be reminded that there are factions in the political
> establishments of all three countries, serving a variety of interests.
>
>
>
> On Jul 12, 2018, at 10:52 AM, Robert Naiman via Peace-discuss <
> peace-discuss at lists.chambana.net> wrote:
>
>
> [...]
>
> But not everyone shared the same positive reading. To some, the message
> could be a series of warnings “about Russia’s recent anti-Iran stances in
> OPEC by siding with Saudi Arabia … and frequent meetings with the
> Israelis," an article in pro-reform Jameh Irani
> <http://jamehirani.ir/fa/201807114593/%d9%88%d9%84%d8%a7%db%8c%d8%aa%db%8c-%d8%ad%d8%a7%d9%85%d9%84-%da%86%d9%87-%d9%be%db%8c%d8%a7%d9%85%db%8c-%d8%a8%d8%b1%d8%a7%db%8c-%d9%be%d9%88%d8%aa%db%8c%d9%86-%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%aa%d8%9f/> read,
> echoing a cynical view of Russian motives. "Russians always lean toward the
> side that serves their interests.”
>
> The debate over Iran-Russia relations has always been heated in Iran, with
> some arguing that Moscow has historically proven to be untrustworthy. Those
> holding that view even believe that Putin and Trump might reach a secret
> deal that is against Iran’s oil and regional interests. Hossein
> Sheikholeslam
> <http://www.ghatreh.com/news/nn43392009/%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%A8%DB%8C-%DA%86%D8%A7%D8%B1%DA%86%D9%88%D8%A8%DB%8C-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B4%D9%86-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%84%D9%87-%DB%8C%DA%A9%D8%AC%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%A8%D9%87-%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C-%D8%A2%D9%85%D8%B1%DB%8C%DA%A9%D8%A7>,
> an adviser to Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, however, dismissed
> those speculations. “Trump will not reach an agreement with Putin or with
> anyone else," he said, according to Ghatreh. "He is a supremacist and a
> pharaoh who seeks to impose his own will on the other side, be it the
> Europeans, the Russians or the Chinese.”
>
> - Iran supreme leader’s top aide in Moscow to ‘deliver message’
> Al-Monitor Staff July 11, 2018
>
> http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/07/iran-velayati-moscow-visit-russia-putin-special-message.html
> <http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/07/iran-velayati-moscow-visit-russia-putin-special-message.html#ixzz5L3WwkEbH>
>
> ===
>
> Robert Naiman
> Policy Director
> Just Foreign Policy
> www.justforeignpolicy.org
> naiman at justforeignpolicy.org
> (202) 448-2898 x1
>
>
>
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