[Peace-discuss] Intercept: Early polling shows HFAC chair Eliot Engel is vulnerable in primary

[Robert Naiman]

If Hillary Clinton is "Queen of the Warmongers," Eliot Engel is their Crown
Prince. He voted for the Iraq war. He voted against the Iran nuclear deal.
He voted to keep sending cluster bombs to Saudi Arabia to use in Yemen. He
helped block the first introduction of the Yemen War Powers Resolution in
the House. He helped sabotage the second one. He helped Pelosi keep
Ciciline's Venezuela War Powers Resolution from getting a vote on the
floor. He tried to cram an unconstitutional endorsement of an unauthorized
war in Syria through the House, and he likely would have gotten away with
it if the CPC hadn't stopped him.

If Engel goes down like Crowley, House Dems will get to pick a new leader
on HFAC. It won't make a dime's bit of difference to that if Jamaal Bowman
is Jesus Christ the Savior. If Engel goes down like Crowley, House Dems
will get to pick a new leader on HFAC.

If House Dems get to pick a new leader on HFAC, maybe we can have a real
debate about how the sausages of Democratic policy on endless wars are
produced. Maybe we can even argue that the chair of HFAC shouldn't
automatically go to whoever raises the most Benjamins from Boeing,
Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, and Haim Saban. Nor her designee.

Let Justice Democrats roll down like waters, and righteousness like an
ever-flowing stream.

End these regime change wars.

https://theintercept.com/2019/10/20/eliot-engel-jamaal-bowman-progressive-new-york-primary/
In New York’s 16th Congressional District, a Troubling Early Poll for
Longtime Incumbent Eliot Engel
<https://theintercept.com/staff/akelalacy/>
Akela Lacy <https://theintercept.com/staff/akelalacy/>

October 20 2019, 9:00 p.m.

*Six in 10* registered Democrats in New York’s 16th Congressional District
aren’t sure who they’ll vote for in the June 2020 primary — despite
longtime incumbent House Foreign Affairs Chair Eliot Engel’s place on the
ballot — according to a new poll from Data for Progress.

The burgeoning uncertainty over Engel’s reelection is just the latest
example of an upending of politics as usual in the Democratic Party. The
most famous upset of a Democratic congressional incumbent by a progressive
primary challenger came in 2018, when now-Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
shocked
<https://theintercept.com/2018/11/07/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-election-victory-midterms-2018/>
the political classes by unseating a machine-backed
<https://theintercept.com/2018/05/22/joseph-crowley-alexandra-ocasio-cortez-new-york-primary/>
Queens Democrat and landing on Capitol Hill.

Engel, who has served 16 terms in Congress, is facing two primary
challengers
<https://theintercept.com/2019/06/18/eliot-engel-primary-challenge/> next
June: Jamaal Bowman, a middle school principal from the Bronx who’s
endorsed by the progressive group Justice Democrats, and Andom
Ghebreghiorgis, a special education teacher born to parents who immigrated
to the U.S. from Eritrea.
[image: Jamaal]

Jamaal Bowman during his campaign launch at the Bronx on June 18, 2019.

Photo: Corey Torpie Photography/Courtesy of Jamaal Bowman For Congress

The new poll <http://filesforprogress.org/memos/DFP_NY_16_Poll.pdf> from
the progressive think tank Data for Progress, which is aligned with Bowman,
surveyed 578 registered Democrats in New York’s 16th District between
September 9 and 13. Half of the registered Democrats in the district said
they were not sure how to describe Engel’s political viewpoint. If the
primary were held today, 29 percent said they would vote for Engel, and 10
percent said they would support Bowman. One percent said the would vote for
Ghebreghiorgis. Bowman’s campaign has raised $189,000
<https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0NY16143/> to Engel’s $566,200
<https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H8NY19058/>. Ghebreghiorgis has raised
$67,400 <https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0NY16135/> so far.

The poll results represented a relatively slim lead for such an entrenched
incumbent — and progressive activists see the weakness as an opening for
one of the challengers. “This is a wide open race, Engel is extremely
vulnerable, and Jamaal, as a longtime middle school principal in the
district, has the momentum and record of service to win this,” said
Alexandra Rojas, executive director of Justice Democrats.

Over his three decades in Congress, Engel has built a reputation for being
hawkish on foreign policy and friendly toward Wall Street. Like many other
Democrats, he voted for the Iraq War, the 1994 crime bill
<https://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/22/us/politics/joe-bidens-role-in-90s-crime-law-could-haunt-any-presidential-bid.html>,
and to repeal <https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/106-1999/h570> parts
of the Glass-Steagall regulations on Wall Street. Engel initially opposed
the Iran nuclear deal, but now says he supports it.

Bowman is busy hitting Engel for his hawkish policies. The challenger’s
website says his campaign is about supporting “schools and education, not
bombs and incarceration.” He’s in favor of Medicare for All, a Green New
Deal, and reforming the criminal justice system. Bowman pledged to refuse
corporate PAC money and has criticized Engel’s reliance on PAC money
<https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00001003> and
large-dollar contributions.

Ghebreghiorgis said that the poll shows vulnerability. “What does it say
that a 16-term incumbent can’t count on the support of even 1 in 3 voters
in the district?” he said. “From my conversations with voters across the
district, I know that they want an end to politics as usual — big money and
special interests, forever wars, mass incarceration, housing
unaffordability, and income inequality. They want new leadership and
transformational change from someone homegrown. We are the only campaign
that has a detailed platform and vision rooted in economic, racial, and
environmental justice and international solidarity.”

The primary is still eight months away, and it’s normal for a large portion
of voters to still be undecided. But the fact that voters in the district
can’t describe the political ideology of an official who has represented
the state for some 30 years underscores the argument made by both
challengers that he’s lost touch with his constituents. Engel represented
the 16th District since 2013, holding seats in the 17th and 19th districts
before that. He was a New York state assemblyman from 1977 to 1988, when he
was first elected to Congress.

At this stage in the race, Engel’s lukewarm standing sets up a promising
path for Bowman as momentum builds behind a number of primary challengers
in neighboring districts and across the country. In comparison, with three
weeks left to go before Ocasio-Cortez’s 2018 primary, the incumbent’s
internal polling had him up by 36 points.

The primary in the 16th District is one of Justice Democrats’ top
priorities this cycle, along with challenges to other powerful members of
the House in Massachusetts, Texas, and Ohio, among others.

Half of respondents in the district described themselves as liberal or very
liberal. Thirty-eight percent say they’re moderate. Twenty-five percent
described Engel as moderate.

The report on the poll says, “Bowman has been able to break through more
than Ghebreghiorgis, and commands more support in the horserace and higher
name identification.” The poll, however, reported that 59 percent of
respondents still said they had never heard of Bowman, and 75 percent said
the same for Ghebreghiorgis.
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