[Peace] Roll Call: With Tweets, Trump Escalates Saber-Rattling Toward Iran

[Robert Naiman]

http://www.rollcall.com/news/tweets-trump-escalates-sabre-ra
ttling-toward-iran
Posted Feb 2, 2017 8:12 AM
John T. Bennett

With Tweets, Trump Escalates Saber-Rattling Toward Iran
New U.S. president to Tehran: You have been ‘formally PUT ON NOTICE’

The Trump administration escalated its sudden sabre-rattling toward Iran
when President Donald Trump directly criticized Tehran in a series of
tweets Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Hours after his top national security adviser put Iran “on notice” and
other senior administration officials refused to rule out U.S. military
action against the Islamic Republic, Trump himself appeared to threaten the
Middle Eastern power in a series of tweets — and the words of U.S.
presidents carry far more weight than career bureaucrats briefing behind
the veil of anonymity.

The president used his personal Twitter account to say around 6:30 a.m.
Thursday that Iran has been “formally PUT ON NOTICE for firing a ballistic
missile,” apparently using all capital letters to add weight to his words.
Iranian leaders “should have been thankful for the terrible deal the U.S.
made with them!” Trump tweeted.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/827118012784373760

Trump followed that tweet with one that took a shot at the Obama
administration and other global powers who last year inked a deal with Iran
over its nuclear arms program, a pact that included easing sanctions and
releasing frozen Iranian assets.

The new U.S. commander in chief wrote that Iran was on its “last legs”
before the nuclear deal, arguing Washington gave it a $150 billion “life
line” via the deal.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/827119326880813056

PolitiFact, an independent fact-checking organization, examined similar
claims Trump made during the presidential campaign. “Experts say $150
billion is the high end of estimates,” the organization wrote last March.
“Most peg the the total value of Iranian assets at around $100 billion, but
Iran probably still won’t be able to access all of it.”

The president’s Thursday morning posts came about nine hours after Trump
first joined his administration’s seemingly out-of-the-blue attacks on
Iranian behavior. Late Wednesday night, he said Iran has been seizing
larger and larger swaths of Iraq while previous U.S. administrations
“squandered three trillion dollars there.”

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The Trump administration clearly wants to turn up the heat on Iranian
leaders, but just how far the new president is willing to go to force
Tehran to alter its behavior is unclear. Senior administration officials
declined to answer multiple questions about Trump’s willingness to use U.S.
military force during a Wednesday background briefing that at times felt
like the beginning of a confrontation with Iran.

Senior administration officials, who who briefed reporters at the White
House on condition of anonymity to be candid, said the U.S. has a “large
range of options available … from financial and economic … to pursuing
other options related to support for those that are challenging and
opposing Iranian malign activity in the region.”

Asked multiple times whether that list includes military force, three
senior administration officials repeatedly declined to say Trump, for now
at least, is not exploring deploying the U.S. military against Iran.

“We are considering a whole range of options. We’re in a deliberative
process. The important thing here is that we are communicating that Iranian
behavior needs to be rethought by Tehran,” one of the senior administration
officials said.

“That we consider these actions to be inherently destabilizing and a threat
to our friends and our allies, and as counterproductive to the goals of the
region,” the official told reporters. “It undermines the people’s security
in the region, and creates inherent instability.”

The official then delivered the second hawkish threat of the day toward
Iran from the White House podium in as many hours: “That is something that
Tehran needs to consider and think through because we are considering these
things in a different perspective.”

The thing about military force is when a White House goes out of its way to
deliver muscular threats, but refuses to clearly state the military option
is off the table, the implication is it is very much on a president’s list
of options.

About two hours before the officials spoke to reporters on Wednesday, the
president dispatched his national security adviser, Michael Flynn, to the
White House briefing room to call out Iran for its support of Houthi forces
that have struck Emirati and Saudi ships, and its recent ballistic missile
test.

“In these and other similar activities, Iran continues to threaten U.S.
friends and allies in the region,” said Flynn, a retired three-star general
who was fired by the Obama administration. “As of today, we are officially
putting Iran on notice.”

Asked to elaborate on Flynn’s hawkish warning, one of the senior
administration officials responded, “I’m not going to address that.”

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The officials revealed the new administration has kicked off a
“deliberative process” to review and finalize its Iran policy. For that
reason, the officials acknowledged that are unable to say that military
options have been ruled out.

“You’re asking for the results of a review process that is just now
beginning. We’ve been here for a few days,” one of the officials said.
“These are questions to which the answers are,” he then stammered a bit
before saying “we don’t have anything to say for reasons that will not
surprise you.”

But the afternoon’s “on notice” warning followed by the officials’ refusal
to rule out military action signaled the Trump administration likely will
take a hard line against Iran. But the new White House’s message is as
vague as it is hawkish, leaving open the possibility that Iranian leaders
could misinterpret it and act out.

Asked whether the Trump administration has attempted to avoid some sort of
incident by dispatching a third party or even itself talking directly to
the Iranian government, one of the officials only added to a confusing
afternoon at the executive mansion by responding, “I don’t think we would
comment on that today.”

===

Robert Naiman
Policy Director
Just Foreign Policy
www.justforeignpolicy.org
naiman at justforeignpolicy.org
(202) 448-2898 x1 <(202)%20448-2898>
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