[Peace] [Peace-discuss] How the Syria War was Won

Mon Oct 21 15:06:35 UTC 2019

The attractiveness of the Rojava social experiment may lead us to ignore the use of the Rojava Kurds by the US and Israel (both in Syria illegally) to displace the Damascus government, and the Syrian Kurds’ relation to the surrounding tribes, as described by Escobar…

[Gabriel Uriarte] Mmm, think it [Escobar’s account] might be a bit overdrawn (as I find so much of Escobar's stuff). The description I've found convincing about the weaknesses of "Rojava" east of the Euphrates is Fabrice Balanche here, <https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/tal-abyad-achilles-heel-of-the-syrian-kurdish-belt> (yeah, I know it's at WINET, but the guy's good.) Point I'd make is that the Arab tribes' attitude is kind of independent of whether the PYD realistic (or nice) or not: either a Turkish conquest or a Syrian return would be preferable to them.

"The Kurds no longer pay much heed to traditional tribal structures, but the tribal system still dominates Arab society in Tal Abyad. Long protected by Syria’s Baath regime, Arab tribal leaders have retained their status as notables and their capacity for political mobilization. The main tribe in Tal Abyad district is the Jays, divided into three powerful clans: the Bou Assaf, who are close to the YPG, and the Jamilah and Bou Jarada, who are very anti-YPG. Less prominent local tribes are the Naim, Hannada, Baggara, and Annaza. Two Turkmen collectives, the Slouk and Hamam Turkmen, also constitute tribes.

"The Jays is a warrior tribe with strong ties to Turkey and a history of conflict with the Kurds of Kobane, whose agricultural lands are nearby. Before the war, the tribe was close to the Assad regime; once government forces withdrew in July 2012, it tried to behave like the master of the region. After periods of chaos and rebel takeover, the YPG occupied Tal Abyad city for a few days in March 2013, spurring some of the clans from Jays and other Arab tribes to ask for help from al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra (which including IS cadres at the time). In addition to pushing the YPG out of the district, this Arab alliance displaced the entire Kurdish population, destroying their homes in the process.

"Currently, Arab refugees from Tal Abyad are keen to return to the district by force with Turkey’s help. Many of them have trained in Turkish military camps in Sanliurfa and Akcakale, the border town nearest Tal Abyad. These young trainees may be used as the vanguard to “liberate” the district, similar to how the Turkish army used proxies when invading the Kurdish district of Afrin in northwest Syria. This strategy has an even better chance of succeeding (and avoiding international outcry) in Tal Abyad because the majority of the population is Arab, unlike in Afrin where Kurds are more numerous. For instance, the Sukhanya clan fled Tal Abyad in May 2015 and sought refuge in Turkey, and their homes have since been confiscated by the YPG. Today, they regularly demonstrate on the Turkish side of the border to demand the YPG’s departure, and their militia is ready to participate in any advance against the town.”

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The Turkish invasion of course has forced the Kurds to reunite with Damascus, as Russia has been pressing them to - and stop being a stalking horse for the US. —CGE

> On Oct 20, 2019, at 10:25 AM, David Johnson <davidjohnson1451 at comcast.net> wrote:
> 
> “ the PKK base in northern Iraq – to build the YPG militia for the PYD. In predominantly Arab zones, Syrian Kurds are in charge of governing because for them Arabs are seen as a bunch of barbarians, incapable of building their “democratic, socialist, ecological and multi-communitarian” society.”
>  
> The above statement is an absolute slanderous lie !
>  
> The YPG Kurdish areas had a bottom up grass roots democratic structure that did NOT discriminate against anyone, regardless if they were Kurds or Araba or Alawites. Muslims, Christians, or the other smaller religious groups in the area. It rejected capitalism and their areas consisted of small businesses and worker cooperatives. There was a total absence of misogyny with women in positions of elected leadership in governing councils and military units. The governing councils started at the neighborhood level and went to city and regional level. ALL 100 % democratic REGARDLESS of ethnicity etc..
> The YPG Kurds has / had a society that was a model for not just the middle east but the world at large. Of course all of the actors involved, especially Turkey, wanted to see it destroyed, including Trump / U.S. ruling class and the Assad government.
> During the entire time of it’s existence it never battled the Syrian army and allowed the regional; airport and the postal system to remain in control of the Syrian government. It did have several armed confrontations with the CIA backed  jihadists of the so called “ Free Syrian Army “ in addition to ISIS. The accepting of U.S. weapons and later troops was an act of survival. 
> I have read two books written about the YPG as well as read countless interviews / personal accounts of Left-wing American and British individuals who visited and stayed in the Rojave region for various lengths of time.
>  
> David J.
>  
>  
> From: Peace-discuss [mailto:peace-discuss-bounces at lists.chambana.net] On Behalf Of C G Estabrook via Peace-discuss
> Sent: Saturday, October 19, 2019 9:23 PM
> To: Carl G. Estabrook
> Cc: peace-discuss at anti-war.net; peace
> Subject: Re: [Peace-discuss] [Peace] How the Syria War was Won
>  
>  ...The first major game-changer was the spectacular Russian entrance in the summer of 2015. Vladimir Putin had asked the U.S. to join in the fight against the Islamic State as the Soviet Union allied against Hitler, negating the American idea that this was Russia’s bid to restore its imperial glory. But the American plan instead, under Barack Obama, was single-minded: betting on a rag-tag Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a mix of Kurds and Sunni Arabs, supported by air power and U.S. Special Forces, north of the Euphrates, to smash ISIS/Daesh all the way to Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor.
> 
> Raqqa, bombed to rubble by the Pentagon, may have been taken by the SDF, but Deir ez-Zor was taken by Damascus’s Syrian Arab Army. The ultimate American aim was to consistently keep the north of the Euphrates under U.S. power, via their proxies, the SDF and the Kurdish PYD/YPG. That American dream is now over, lamented by imperial Democrats and Republicans alike.
> 
> The CIA will be after Trump’s scalp till Kingdom Come.
> 
> ...The Kurdish dream of a contiguous, autonomous territory from Qamichli to Manbij is over. Sunni Arabs living in this perimeter will resist any Kurdish attempt at dominance.
> The Syrian PYD was founded in 2005 by PKK militants. In 2011, Syrians from the PKK came from Qandil – the PKK base in northern Iraq – to build the YPG militia for the PYD. In predominantly Arab zones, Syrian Kurds are in charge of governing because for them Arabs are seen as a bunch of barbarians, incapable of building their “democratic, socialist, ecological and multi-communitarian” society.
> 
> One can imagine how conservative Sunni Arab tribal leaders hate their guts. There’s no way these tribal leaders will ever support the Kurds against the SAA or the Turkish army; after all these Arab tribal leaders spent a lot of time in Damascus seeking support from Bashar al-Assad. And now the Kurds themselves have accepted that support in the face of the Trukish incursion, greenlighted by Trump.
> 
> East of Deir ez-Zor, the PYD/YPG already had to say goodbye to the region that is responsible for 50 percent of Syria’s oil production. Damascus and the SAA now have the upper hand. What’s left for the PYD/YPG is to resign themselves to Damascus’s and Russian protection against Turkey, and the chance of exercising sovereignty in exclusively Kurdish territories.
> Ignorance of the West
> 
> The West, with typical Orientalist haughtiness, never understood that Alawites, Christians, Ismailis and Druze in Syria would always privilege Damascus for protection compared to an “opposition” monopolized by hardcore Islamists, if not jihadis. The West also did not understand that the government in Damascus, for survival, could always count on formidable Baath party networks plus the dreaded mukhabarat — the intel services.
> 
> Rebuilding Syria
> 
> The reconstruction of Syria may cost as much as $200 billion. Damascus has already made it very clear that the U.S. and the EU are not welcome. China will be in the forefront, along with Russia and Iran; this will be a project strictly following the Eurasia integration playbook — with the Chinese aiming to revive Syria’s strategic positioning in the Ancient Silk Road…
>  
> —Pepe Escobar
> 
> 
> 
> On Oct 19, 2019, at 8:13 PM, C. G. Estabrook via Peace <peace at lists.chambana.net> wrote:
> 
> https://consortiumnews.com/2019/10/18/pepe-escobar-the-road-to-damascus-how-the-syria-war-was-won/
> 
> [Pepe Escobar] 
> I'm VERY pleased to present this special Syria essay for Consortium News. Yes, it's provocative, quite ambitious - and the emphasis is not geopolitics, but the arc of history. I had to sacrifice many ramifications for the sake of a concise narrative. I really hope this may be helpful, especially across the Global South, for anyone trying to make sense of the senseless, attempted destruction of Syria. And yes, in the end Syria wins.
> 
> ###
> 
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