[Newspoetry] Aftermath

[William Gillespie]

half a million:



total possible on all sides during the conflict and the following three
months could range from 48,000 to over a quarter of a million

subsequent civil war 20,000

add a further 200,000 to adverse effects

then a further 200,000 would be threatened after

civil conflict

legions of refugees

children's health

destruction of manufacturing and agriculture

not only the capital, but also surrounding areas uninhabitable for years
to come

oil industry, roads, bridges, communications, electricity supplies, water
and sewage systems, factories, warehouses and civilian homes
systematically destroyed by ordnance

conscious policy to destroy electricity generating facilities, together
with water storage and treatment amenities

series of devastating famines and epidemics

bombs deafen, blind and blow apart people, riddling them with shrapnel,
glass and debris, collapse buildings on victims, including hospitals and
clinics vital to treating the wounded, unexploded ordinance left behind
kills and maims, battlefield toxins contaminate the environment for
decades

downfall of regimes in surrounding nations

retaliatory action by Islamic fundamentalists

ripple effects

oil price hikes

trade reduction

disastrous effect upon the less developed nations

stuttering world economy tipped into deep prolonged recession

$150 billion to $200 billion on a conventional war

further $5 billion to $20 billion on subsequent occupation

longer-term cost could amount to as much as $600 billion

worst case scenario, including oil price spikes and OPEC intransigence
envisages costs of as much as $1.6 trillion

left to debate causes and responsibilities without an adequate information
base



"price worth paying"