[Peace-discuss] Re: how I am thinking (fwd)

[C. G. Estabrook]

On Mon, 10 Mar 2003, parenti susan rose wrote:

> ...How does the WTO, IMF look at this pending war? ...


[Quite a remarkable answer to Susan's question, from  Wednesday's
Independent (UK).  --CGE]

Long Iraq war would halve world growth - IMF

By Philip Thornton, Economics Correspondent

12 March 2003

A prolonged war in Iraq would cut economic growth this year by more than
half and plunge the world into recession, the International Monetary Fund
will warn next month.

A leaked version of its twice-yearly economic forecasts show it is worried
about "serious economic consequences" if a war went on for a long time and
spread to other regions.

Its warning came as a leading UK economic think-tank urged the Bank of
England to cut rates next month to tackle "economic weakness". The
National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said the Bank
could not afford to "wait and see".

According to reports in the German press, the IMF will slash its forecasts
for growth this year, even if there is no war. Its world economic outlook
will trim its estimate to 3.3 per cent from September's 3.7 per cent. But
this could fall as low as 1.3 per cent if there were a prolonged war.
Economists deem 2.5 per cent a recession.

The IMF will warn a war could spark a global downward spiral if oil prices
shot up, consumer and investor confidence sank and uncertainty in
financial markets rose. "In a series of countries, the financial systems
would come under pressure if share prices fall further and bad credit were
to increase," Handelsblatt quoted the IMF as saying...